CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???

[Canis]

It will probably be another D vs. D race, as will the Senate race.  Hope it increases demand for California to get rid of their unfair, undemocratic, and unconstitutional primary system.

I have never met anyone that likes the top two structure, regardless of party. Republicans don't like it for statewide races and Democrats don't like it for legislative races. Why does it still exist?

I like it it makes safe races more competitive and the republicans were the ones who made this happen don't forget it was Arnold who backed this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_14_(2010)
 

[Canis]

Just entertain me for a second.  In the very unlikely event of a Allen vs. Cox runoff, who would be favored?

It would be close but Allen would win for a couple of reasons
Cox is pro life and he has a weird idea about shipping illegal immigrants to mexico then bringing them back in the summer to farm
Allen is pro-choice but extremely anti immigration  immigration is a huge issue to most voters so who ever moderates on the issue would win but at the minute Allen would be slightly favored

[Canis]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-gop-candidate-for-california-governor-1518478473-htmlstory.html

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Damaging?

Highly Unlikely that people will care. This was 11 years ago, he's changed his mind since then. Also it was before California voted for Proposition 8, when a lot of people were still anti gay.

Agreed this will likely not hurt Cox with his base of Rural social conservatives hes campaigning on being pro life so this will help him if anything I think he still caps out at 8-10%
My Prediction for round one is
Gavin Newsom 26%
Antonio Villaraigosa 21%
Travis Allen 16%
John Chiang 13%
John Cox 7%
Delaine Eastin 3%
Doug Ose 4%
Others 10%

[Canis]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-gop-candidate-for-california-governor-1518478473-htmlstory.html

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Damaging?

Highly Unlikely that people will care. This was 11 years ago, he's changed his mind since then. Also it was before California voted for Proposition 8, when a lot of people were still anti gay.

Agreed this will likely not hurt Cox with his base of Rural social conservatives hes campaigning on being pro life so this will help him if anything I think he still caps out at 8-10%
My Prediction for round one is
Gavin Newsom 30%
Antonio Villaraigosa 23%
Travis Allen 17%
John Chiang 15%
John Cox 9%
Delaine Eastin 6%
Doug Ose 5%

A. Equals 105%

B. No other? Others will at least take 10%.

Fixed

[Canis]

I know next to nothing about this primary, but I'm vaguely aware that Newsom was purported to be a fiscal conservative.

Can someone break down the primary race and Newsom's positions to me? Answers much appreciated.

Newsom isn't that conservative he is one of the only two candidates in the race who supports single payer the other being Delaine Eastin

[Canis]

here were each candidates pitches to the delegates before the votes
Gavins

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Antonios

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Johns

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Delaines

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http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-here-s-what-california-s-democratic-1519523877-htmlstory.html

[Canis]

Allen is toast. He was accused of sexual harassment.

Link please?

[Canis]

Travis Allen and John Cox both made websites attacking each other for being RINOd
http://truthabouttravis.com
http://truthaboutjohncox.com/
Also a super pac backing jonn Chaing made a website attacking newsom and it's devastating I'm now backing Chiang
https://youdontknowgavin.com/

[Canis]

Travis Allen and John Cox both made websites attacking each other for being RINOd
http://truthabouttravis.com
http://truthaboutjohncox.com/
Also a super pac backing jonn Chaing made a website attacking newsom and it's devastating I'm now backing Chiang
https://youdontknowgavin.com/

The funny thing is that they are both implying that the other is pro-choice (which I wouldn't think they would do unless they were positioning themselves as pro-life).  Does anyone know either of their actual positions?

Cox seems to be the more pro life out of the two Allen has voted for pro-choice stuff in the assembly 
Plus all the pro-life groups are backing Cox

[Canis]

Agreed Villa has chance of a upset in the general against Gavin if he pushes the issue of sexual assault gets the latino and GOP support he could eke out a win

[Canis]

A lot of news for Antonio 
Netflix ceo drops 7 million to support him
http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-netflix-ceo-and-ed-reform-advocate-reed-1523495119-htmlstory.html
Charter School Backers are dropping everything to support him
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article208718649.html
A potential scandal?
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/04/12/antonio-villaraigosa-paid-speeches-california-china/

[Canis]

Also California Labor Foundation endorses Newsom and KDL
https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Gavin-Newsom-Kevin-de-Leon-win-backing-of-major-12830269.php
Which is pretty big there a huge group

[Canis]

Chiang Endorsed by Dave Jones (insurance Commissioner and candidate for Attorney General)
https://johnchiang.com/the-latest/press-releases/john-chiang-endorsed-ca-insurance-commissioner-former-high-school-running-mate-dave-jones/ 
Also New Chiang Ad
https://twitter.com/JohnChiangCA/status/985663148781797377

[Canis]

Updated Fundraising numbers

Chiang SURGE!

[Canis]

Seems like Chiang is putting that money to use!
https://twitter.com/JohnChiangCA/status/991134781109751808

[Canis]

If they want a chance Cox if they get super partisan and pissy Allen

[Canis]

Does Allen or Cox get 60% or not? Does Allen or Cox win Orange County? Does one of the top 3 Democrats (Newsom, Villaraigosa, or Chiang) win OC?, or is OC now an anti-establishment progressive stronghold that Eastin wins?

Its unclear we'll have to see, Cox and Allen would have a good chance of winning the county in the primary I predict Allen carries it narrowly due to his home county advantage. OC is very pro business so no eastin will likely get less than 1% in oc the other dems will due well there In a Newsom vs Villaraigosa runoff it would likely go to Villaraigosa.

[Canis]

Major African American Leaders Back Villaraigosa
http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-may-2018-african-american-leaders-endorse-1525387194-htmlstory.html
Also here's a good ad summarizing the race so far
http://www.santacruzsentinel.com/article/NE/20180505/NEWS/180509785

[Canis]

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article210584474.html

CA GOP Convention just held their endorsement vote. Cox gets 55% to Allen's 41%, falling short of the 60% needed for a party endorsement

have they made an endorsement in the senate race?

[Canis]

Democratic and Republican conventions both deadlocked. What impact will this have?

None

[Canis]

I've seen a tv ad for Gavin a Youtube ad for Chiang and Villaraigosa and 3 signs for Allen nothing for Cox or Eastin

[Canis]

More than likely yes

[Canis]

Trumps endorsement won't have that much effect unless trump actively campaigns for cox if he does cox likely smokes Allen and gets a larger share of the GOP vote and is guranteed a spot in the runoff

[Canis]

Allen bites back with an ad reminding people that Cox didn't vote for Trump
https://www.facebook.com/JoinTravisAllen/videos/1889323124493705/

[Canis]

What happens if Newsom gets MeToo'd before the primary?

There's only like 15 days left and a lot of people have already voted and metood over what? a consensual affair?