CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is Newsom truly inevitable

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Newsom is the favorite, but there is a long ways to go. I have a feeling his previous affair will be brought up and it could cause his poll numbers to slip. I do think a California megathred should be created so there aren't so many individual posts.

That'd work if he's in the top two with anyone but Villaraigosa

Could Chiang defeat Newsom?

Probably. He has the lowest sleaze factor in the race.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Chiang is surging. One poll shows him tied with Villaraigosa.

I want to see a Chiang vs Villaraigosa runoff.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Could Chiang make it to the next round if another scandal about Newsom or Villaraigosa emerges?

I think so. He would have to raise his profile and take some highly specific stands on issues he tends to gloss over, however. Otherwise a lot of support would just shift from Newsom to Villaraigosa or vice versa.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Could Chiang make it to the next round if another scandal about Newsom or Villaraigosa emerges?

I think so. He would have to raise his profile and take some highly specific stands on issues he tends to gloss over, however. Otherwise a lot of support would just shift from Newsom to Villaraigosa or vice versa.

Which counties would Chiang win in a runoff against Newsom?

Los Angeles, Orange, and Ventura, I think. Not sure about Central Valley or San Diego.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

It’s irrelevant. Gavin will win easily and will be the 2024 dem nominee

Gross

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Forgive my nitpicking, but do we need an update whenever another one of the 70+ candidates enters this race?

Only if they're Democrats because it might cause Villaraigosa to miss the runoff.

Like that could happen. He's tied with Newsom now, with momentum on his side.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I was planning on Taking One For The Team so to speak by voting for someone as odious as Villaraigosa for the sole purpose of getting a second Democrat in the runoff, but the dude is just so beyond-the-pale awful that I'm resigned to voting for Eastin, the only Democrat committed to repealing Costa-Hawkins. It's a shame she (or Chiang, for that matter) didn't run for Lieutenant Governor seeing as how pathetically weak the field is.

What??? Newsom is the odious one. Besides, rent-control is always awful, and everybody knows it.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So what is the magic number of Latinos Villar needs to win the GE, 70+?, I think Newsom needs 60+ with whites to be good and he'll win Asians by a good margin.

??

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I like Villar's ads more than Newsom's, his seem to resonate more with working class people than Gavin's who seems to be focusing on Trump/social issues. Chiang's ad are the worst, very boring doesn't resonate at all.

Your interpretation of the ads sums up the race pretty well.
Newsom: Sleazy douche who says the right things and has no track record
Villaraigosa: Earnest, pragmatic, and with a great track record
Chiang: n/a

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Senate:  Dianne Feinstein
Governor: Antonio Villaraigosa
Lt Gov:  Eleni Kounalakis
AG:  Xavier Beccera

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I voted for AV.

Yay!!!!!!!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

What I'm curious about are the peripheral Southern California Counties. Does Villaraigosa win San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino, etc.? Also, is each of the nine Bay Area counties truly a lock for Newsom?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

What I'm curious about are the peripheral Southern California Counties. Does Villaraigosa win San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino, etc.? Also, is each of the nine Bay Area counties truly a lock for Newsom?

With a split Democratic field down south, I think that Cox can win in SD and Orange. SUSA has Gavin doing really well in the Inland Empire, which just seems a bit off to me. It has struck me as being somewhat conservative (not as much as Orange or parts of NorCal though). A split between Newsom and Villaraigosa would allow Cox to slip into first place in Riverside and San Bernardino.

When I made my map, I was keeping the 2016 Senate primary in mind with a few key changes: Republicans seem to have coalesced more around Cox than they did for any candidate in the 2016 Senate run. The 2016 senate run is what guided me on SLO and Santa Barbara. Santa Barbara has been a bellweather in many cases and my rating of 30-40% Newsom is reflective of that (I'd lean closer to 30% than 40%).

I'll be honest about Ventura, I don't have a great read on them. Imperial is obviously going for Villaraigosa (felt I should include it for completeness).

Keen is probably going to be the most conservative of the bunch looking at total Republican votes. I'm thinking that will translate into a Cox win.

All of that said, I would think that Hispanics would be more motivated to turnout this year, so Villaraigosa could be boosted down south.

Looking at the Bay Area, Kamala Harris swept pretty heavily there and polling suggests that Newsom is strong there as well (and as should be expected). A split between Democrats and Republicans means that Newsom could pick off many (if not all) of these counties with a plurality. Santa Clara does have a high Asian population, but I'm not sure it would be enough to give Chiang a victory.

The Budget Crisis under Schwarzenegger was a long time ago, perhaps too far back for it to be helpful for Chiang, but it will probably boost Chiang in the Sacramento area.

Yolo County is an interesting place in that I would imagine there's a fair amount of state workers and a decent Asian population. However, I would guess that a fair number of Asians there are either international students or are registered in their home counties (aka the Bay and down South). UC Davis is a quarter school in terms of undergrads, so students will still be in Davis. I do know that Newsom is doing a rally on Saturday in Davis (which I plan on attending for kicks), but that probably won't have a huge impact. As I type this, I'm becoming more and more interested in Yolo. I would not call it part of the Bay Area. Students are probably about 20% of the population, maybe a bit less. Who knows, with Trump in the White House, maybe they'll turnout for once.

I wouldn't even consider parts of Solano County (cough Dixon cough) as part of the Bay either, but Dixon is  all of Solano. A precinct map would probably illustrate the differences between Dixon and somewhere else in Solano like Vallejo or something.

I agree on the Inland Empire. I think Villaraigosa could just come out first in San Bernardino (29% Villaraigosa, 28% Cox, 16% Newsom, 10% Allen, 5% Chiang), but it'll probably be Cox-Villaraigosa-Newsom-Chiang-Allen. Riverside County will definitely have Cox on top. So will Orange. I actually think San Diego County could go to Villaraigosa (35% Villaraigosa, 30% Cox, 25% Newsom, 5% Allen, 5% Chiang), but I don't know what the Newsom split will be. I expect a similar result in Ventura as San Diego.
Finally, I don't think the Harris=Newsom, Sanchez=Villaraigosa comparison is necessarily accurate.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

lol Villa in 3rd in LA County

It isn't even 5% in.