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December 11, 2019, 05:44:19 pm
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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 123048 times)
Crumpets
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« Reply #1000 on: March 12, 2018, 04:33:01 pm »

Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the forecast for tomorrow in the district is 25-34F and light snow.
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Virginia
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« Reply #1001 on: March 12, 2018, 04:36:03 pm »

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

It might still end up being a disaster when Trump is on the ballot, as Trump lacks one thing Obama generally had in both his campaigns, but more so in the first: popularity. All that has to happen for Trump and Republicans to get blown out in 2020 is, imo, Trump staying as popular as he has been since he first announced his run for president. That and a reasonably popular Democratic candidate, which up until Hillary Clinton was usually considered a given.

Popularity is overrated to an extent. Even when you account for Obama's popularity...he presided over one of the worst records since Truman for the Senate and FDR for the House in terms of losses.

-snip-

Well that is because in 2014 he was pretty unpopular by modern standards - something like 40% approve / 51-52% disapprove, so even still lower than Trump. In 2010, he was breaking even around 45-45. However, the thing is, Democrats are at a clear disadvantage in the states, and the South still had a ton of Democrats in state offices, so it didn't take a deeply unpopular Democratic president to cause a massive loss of legislative seats. It just took one like Obama, who was straddling the line, and also represented a (small) break from the more Bill Clinton-like centrist approach. Democrats were very much over-extended after 2006 and 2008, and all it took was a midterm or two under a Democratic president to wipe out those gains. This is kind of why I don't like the "we lost 900-1000 legislative seats under Obama..." thing. It's a bit misleading, and attempts to explain a complex electoral situation by a snappy one-liner that doesn't answer the question in full.

So my thoughts are that approval ratings do matter. Presidents with 40% approval ratings are going to have a hard time getting re-elected (or elected in the first place at 40% favorable) unless their opponent is just as unpopular. In fact, if Trump is hovering around 37-38% approval in 2020, I do think it gives another opportunity for a wave. It's only if Trump maintains a consistent upper-40s / low-50s approval that I think he might have a shot, just like any other president with similar ratings. But I don't expect him to have those kinds of numbers in 2020. He's not capable of changing what he needs to change to achieve it.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1002 on: March 12, 2018, 04:42:48 pm »

Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the forecast for tomorrow in the district is 25-34F and light snow.

Snow is just another form of rain, checkmate libs.
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Arch
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« Reply #1003 on: March 12, 2018, 04:44:21 pm »

Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the forecast for tomorrow in the district is 25-34F and light snow.

Snow is just another form of rain, checkmate libs.

Advanced rain
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Skye
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« Reply #1004 on: March 12, 2018, 04:57:08 pm »

Gonna rate this Lean D now.
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cp
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« Reply #1005 on: March 12, 2018, 04:58:50 pm »

I really cannot see Saccone winning this. The polls showed a continuous shift to Lamb, the crosstabs are extremely favorable to Conor. I would honestly be shell shocked if Saccone won. It would be due to extremely low turnout (Something I don't see happening).

Great numbers for Lamb! *fingers crossed*

In the spirit of genuine debate (rather than concern trolling), if it turns out that Saccone somehow did pull out a victory tomorrow, how exactly would this happen? Or put another way, would would be the cause of the kind of polling error that would lead to Lamb being overestimated in this way?
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It's Trotsky Time
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« Reply #1006 on: March 12, 2018, 04:59:43 pm »

Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the forecast for tomorrow in the district is 25-34F and light snow.

Snow has destroyed Lamb in the Pittsburgh suburbs... I now predict that Saccone will get 78% of the vote based on my mind model
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1007 on: March 12, 2018, 05:01:34 pm »


I'll jump on that bandwagon.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1008 on: March 12, 2018, 05:03:09 pm »

Interesting:

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Virginia
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« Reply #1009 on: March 12, 2018, 05:11:17 pm »

Interesting:

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Not too surprising. 538 and others like Cook have been remarking about strong approve/disapprove since Trump wormed his way into office. Someone who strongly dislikes Trump and what he is doing in office is not liable to help his party, which at this point I think is relatively clear will go far out of their way to protect Trump, no matter how dumb or corrupt his actions are. I have to admit, the lengths they will go is even surprising me. I always thought there would be a breaking point, but I guess that doesn't make sense since Republican voters like Trump a lot more than they like Republican lawmakers.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #1010 on: March 12, 2018, 05:15:07 pm »

There are just too many factors that are in favor of Lamb. Lean D.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #1011 on: March 12, 2018, 05:53:27 pm »

Does anyone have any info on what the unions in the District have been doing in the election/the importance of the the various unions?

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/unions-conor-lamb-pa-18
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henster
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« Reply #1012 on: March 12, 2018, 06:13:21 pm »

Saccone's closing message.



https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/973325643160215560
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #1013 on: March 12, 2018, 06:16:12 pm »

Wow, no wonder he's about to lose tomorrow. Definitely the tone of a confident campaign.
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #1014 on: March 12, 2018, 06:17:50 pm »


Calling your opponents Godless heathens isn't exactly a good thing to do to get your base out and keep the other side's out....
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Andy Beshear Have My Babies
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« Reply #1015 on: March 12, 2018, 06:20:18 pm »


Mann... I liked Saccone until that. Wtf is wrong with him?
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #1016 on: March 12, 2018, 06:20:56 pm »


Yeah, I really can't see him winning.
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marty
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« Reply #1017 on: March 12, 2018, 06:26:35 pm »

Why did the republican win this by 37 in 2016?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1018 on: March 12, 2018, 06:26:46 pm »
« Edited: March 12, 2018, 07:42:10 pm by Progressive Pessimist »

My prediction prior to today was Saccone winning by 3, now I'm not so sure. I had my doubts before about a Lamb victory tomorrow but that new Monmouth poll is truly astounding! Even with the possibility of snow, Lamb will likely keep it close at a bare minimum. I still suspect that this district's natural partisan lean might help Saccone eke out a narrow win but I am now more confident than ever that Lamb could very well pull this off. It's pathetic how happy I will be if he does.

This is a true tossup and I am at least confident that it will end up embarrassing the GOP with either them losing or barely winning in a district where a Democrat shouldn't have had a chance.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #1019 on: March 12, 2018, 06:28:10 pm »
« Edited: March 12, 2018, 06:35:49 pm by PittsburghSteel »

Guys. Lamb is going to win. Let's stop with the "Ohh partisan lean!" "Might eek out!" "Saccone +27" crap. The polls have continuously moved in favor of Lamb, he has the energized base, has the fundraising numbers, etc.

Plus, Saccone is talking like he knows he's gonna lose.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1020 on: March 12, 2018, 06:33:58 pm »


He sounds exactly like Trump here, did he have a stroke or something?
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President Griffin
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« Reply #1021 on: March 12, 2018, 06:39:23 pm »

"If you hate our President and especially if you hate our party, then you also hate God"

- Rick "Sacc'd" Saccone
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Mondale
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« Reply #1022 on: March 12, 2018, 06:42:44 pm »


Looks like we're headed for a Lambslide
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #1023 on: March 12, 2018, 06:43:55 pm »


ba dum tss
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Virginia
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« Reply #1024 on: March 12, 2018, 06:46:03 pm »

Why did the republican win this by 37 in 2016?

It's not like if Lamb ran in 2016, he'd have won. Don't get me wrong, he's a great candidate (against a poor one at that), but the national environment and who is president has a lot to do with it. I'd even argue it has the most to do with it. In 2016, Obama was still the incumbent and Democrats were in an election under 8 continuous years of a Democratic president who was generally more unpopular than he was popular. That takes a toll.

This is why I sometimes say that I really think most people have forgotten just how much an unpopular incumbent president can hurt their party in elections held while that president is in office. It seriously sucks the energy out of their party while firing up the opposition. Doubly so when said president is extremely controversial, like Trump. They don't call it the White House curse for nothing.
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