PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 200674 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #100 on: March 11, 2018, 05:52:02 PM »
Trump and Republicans may be expecting a Lamb victory...

https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-privately-trashes-rick-saccone-1520806446-c7033bad-f7a4-4d92-80a7-40113967a0e2.html
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #101 on: March 11, 2018, 07:10:31 PM »
This is a bigger deal than the PG: Lamb won the endorsement of the "Observer-Reporter" which is the largest newspaper in two of the counties (Greene and Washington) I believe those two will be Saccone's best counties so this is excellent for Conor!

https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-th-district-election-lamb-is-the-best-choice/article_e3246e5e-2080-11e8-abc5-c31a5a33de84.html
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #102 on: March 11, 2018, 07:13:03 PM »
A reader poll is on the front page of the Observer's website that asks the people who they will vote for.

Conor Lamb: 48%
Rick Saccone: 40%

It's a reader poll and you just click so it carries very little weight.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #103 on: March 11, 2018, 07:43:40 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on March 11, 2018, 07:36:31 PM
We're supposedly due for snow here in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Any idea how, if it all, it could affect the election? To me it sounds like it would favor Saccone.

The candidate with the more enthusiastic base (Lamb) probably won't have a problem.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #104 on: March 11, 2018, 07:52:09 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on March 11, 2018, 07:47:37 PM
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on March 11, 2018, 07:34:06 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on March 11, 2018, 07:21:48 PM

Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.

Don't most states prohibit being on the ballot for multiple offices, unless one of them is President or Vice President?

Ah, good point.  Without such laws it would be an interesting idea.

I meant that I endorse him for his current PA18 run and that I endorse him for his eventual PA17 run.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #105 on: March 11, 2018, 11:35:06 PM »
These numbers seem attainable
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« Reply #106 on: March 11, 2018, 11:37:27 PM »
If Eugene DePasquale can almost win it, then Lamb can win.
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« Reply #107 on: March 12, 2018, 09:56:31 AM »
« Edited: March 12, 2018, 10:00:26 AM by PittsburghSteel »
I don't know why, but I am extremely anxious for this Monmouth poll...
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #108 on: March 12, 2018, 10:30:56 AM »
Monmouth releases 1:00 EST
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #109 on: March 12, 2018, 10:38:09 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 10:36:24 AM
It's Rick Wilson so grain of salt:









He's ignoring the polls and the fact Lamb outraised Saccone by nearly 500%. What a hack.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #110 on: March 12, 2018, 10:42:25 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 10:40:14 AM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 12, 2018, 10:38:09 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 10:36:24 AM
It's Rick Wilson so grain of salt:









He's ignoring the polls and the fact Lamb outraised Saccone by nearly 500%. What a hack.

I think you read the tweets wrong.

Looks like I did. 😳
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #111 on: March 12, 2018, 12:08:52 PM »
I am ecstatic! Of course it's just a poll and not the actual Election Day results, but the momentum has been with Conor for the past couple of weeks and I cannot imagine how Saccone will win now.
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« Reply #112 on: March 12, 2018, 12:13:07 PM »
Guys, I think Holmes is God.
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« Reply #113 on: March 12, 2018, 12:16:20 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 12:15:27 PM
The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans



I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #114 on: March 12, 2018, 12:21:22 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 12:20:02 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 12, 2018, 12:16:20 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 12:15:27 PM
The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans



I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

I would read more into how this will play in the new District 17.

The new PA14 will largely be comprised of the former PA18.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #115 on: March 12, 2018, 12:25:36 PM »
Quote from: Torrain on March 12, 2018, 12:23:48 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 12:15:27 PM
The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans



If these numbers bear out in exit polling tomorrow, then I wonder what effect this will have on GOP funding for the PA Senate and Governor's race in November. I imagine they'll fight like crazy for the House seats on the new map, to prevent Democrats from taking vulnerable seats and establishing incumbents. But if Trump is this unpopular, it's going to be hard to beat Casey and Wolf.

Wolf will be fine. Casey is not vulnerable.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #116 on: March 12, 2018, 12:37:44 PM »
Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #117 on: March 12, 2018, 12:47:04 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on March 12, 2018, 12:43:21 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 12, 2018, 12:37:44 PM
Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Candidate quality is important.  (Fundamentals are important too.)

The human capital of the democratic candidates for the midterms has been phenomenal. We got Phil freaking Bredesen to run in Tennessee. The best the GOP could get is Kevin Cramer.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #118 on: March 12, 2018, 12:59:54 PM »
Btw, funny that RCP only entered the low turnout model in their database.

Oh, and...
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #119 on: March 12, 2018, 01:18:54 PM »
I really cannot see Saccone winning this. The polls showed a continuous shift to Lamb, the crosstabs are extremely favorable to Conor. I would honestly be shell shocked if Saccone won. It would be due to extremely low turnout (Something I don't see happening).
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #120 on: March 12, 2018, 01:50:51 PM »
Quote from: Zyzz on March 12, 2018, 01:49:20 PM
Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!


SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #121 on: March 12, 2018, 05:15:07 PM »
There are just too many factors that are in favor of Lamb. Lean D.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #122 on: March 12, 2018, 06:16:12 PM »
Wow, no wonder he's about to lose tomorrow. Definitely the tone of a confident campaign.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #123 on: March 12, 2018, 06:20:56 PM »

Yeah, I really can't see him winning.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #124 on: March 12, 2018, 06:28:10 PM »
« Edited: March 12, 2018, 06:35:49 PM by PittsburghSteel »
Guys. Lamb is going to win. Let's stop with the "Ohh partisan lean!" "Might eek out!" "Saccone +27" crap. The polls have continuously moved in favor of Lamb, he has the energized base, has the fundraising numbers, etc.

Plus, Saccone is talking like he knows he's gonna lose.
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