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December 11, 2019, 03:14:31 pm
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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 123038 times)
NOVA Green
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« Reply #1050 on: March 12, 2018, 11:30:54 pm »

Does anyone have any info on what the unions in the District have been doing in the election/the importance of the the various unions?

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/unions-conor-lamb-pa-18

I was wondering what exactly Lamb was doing yesterday in Greene County, which after all makes up a relatively small share of the total votes within the district, speaking to that standing room crowd at the Greene County Fairgrounds to a heavily UMWA audience....

Now it starts to make a bit more sense when one thinks of the compare/contrast argument to Ancestral Dems in Washington and Greene County, which as recently as 2008 basically split their vote 50-50 in a US Presidential election.

One must also wonder to what extent the "Wildcat" Teachers strike in West Virginia, right over the border has received significant local media coverage as a major victory for a revitalized Labor Movement deep in the heart of Union Country, where only a few short decades back there was a major wildcat strike in the Coal Industry.

Here's an image of a something close to the T-Shirt that a 3rd Generation UMW/UMWA Coal Miner gave me when I was in College in Ohio in the early '90s and was bringing the UMWA to campuses throughout the region in Solidarity with the General Strike in the Appalachian Coal fields in '93, shortly after the bosses declared open war against the Miners after the Pittston Strike of '89.



Although many Union members in this region have long felt betrayed by national Democratic Political leaders it looks entirely feasible that in this case that the collective memories, knowledge, and family background does a compare/contrast of "Which Side are You On" between the two candidates to represent them in the US House....

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1051 on: March 12, 2018, 11:43:59 pm »

New Monmouth poll: Dem Conor Lamb leads in all turnout models.

With turnout similar to special elections over the last year: Lamb leads 51-45

With turnout similar to past midterms: Lamb leads 49-47

With turnout high across the board: Lamb leads 51-44




I'll treat any and all polls from a House Special Election with some serious grains of salt, even from an A+ polling outfit....

Polling for US-House elections have notoriously high MOEs as it is, let alone accounting for Special Election scenarios where there is only one race on the ballot.

Still, no question this is good news for Lamb especially considering the adjustments for various turnout scenarios.

One things that amused me slightly was one of the comments downthread from a Tweet from one of the polling dudes about adjusting to reflect the data from "Republican Precincts in Allegheny County"....

After looking at the precinct data from '12/'16 the vast majority of the precincts in Allegheny CD-18 are "Republican Precincts", even if we were to adjust to screen out precincts in Mount Lebanon (Democratic Stronghold) that more often than not tend to Lean 'Pub, but swung +20 Dem between '12 and '16.

Honestly it's starting to feel a bit like Lamb might have a best of two worlds:

1.) Increased dramatic swings within the Upper-Income Pittsburgh Suburban/Exurban parts of the district, especially in some of townships where there were only +5% Dem swings between '12/'16 (With 3rd Party Vote surges).

2.) Return of ancestral Dem voters in Washington/Greene many of whom were Obama/Romney/Trump voters at the National Level, but have still continued to give local/statewide Dems a decent shake.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1052 on: March 13, 2018, 12:41:00 am »

  I'm declaring this race over, just put 20% of my predictit account on Lamb at 66% chance to win.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #1053 on: March 13, 2018, 02:33:43 am »

Lamb's got this.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #1054 on: March 13, 2018, 03:03:09 am »
« Edited: March 13, 2018, 03:10:10 am by Blair »

Iím too lazy to find the clip but Saconne was awful at the Trump rally. Was screaming at the top of his lungs, waving his arms, lavishly praised Trump and then made those stupid god comments.

The GOP have had some awful canidiate and it will be interesting to watch how more skilled politicians like Rick Scott, McSally etc run in the Trump age.

Fwiw I wonder if Ryan will retire if lamb wins.
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cp
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« Reply #1055 on: March 13, 2018, 03:16:05 am »

So the big day is finally here!

A couple of logistical questions:

1. Will there be an exit poll?

2. Related to that, are there any sources for information pre-8pm that aren't completely hackish/untrustworthy?

3. What are the best sites for following the tally?

4. How long will it take to count the ballots? Or put another way, at what percentage of the ballot count can we expect a definitive result?

FWIW, my money is on Lamb by 2.5.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #1056 on: March 13, 2018, 05:29:24 am »

So... any turnout reports yet?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1057 on: March 13, 2018, 05:59:13 am »


Go back to bed. Smiley
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #1058 on: March 13, 2018, 07:23:39 am »


You realize it was 5:30 am when you sent that, right?

It was a joke, my sweet Smiley
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President Griffin
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« Reply #1059 on: March 13, 2018, 07:44:08 am »

Is everybody ready for the ride? Because it never ends!

Get your panic and popcorn ready, and be prepared to overreact to every single morsel of information as it comes in!



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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #1060 on: March 13, 2018, 08:14:13 am »

Let's light this thread UP! Rise and shine, Atlasians!
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #1061 on: March 13, 2018, 08:26:21 am »

Btw, the weather is BEAUTIFUL in Allegheny right now!
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1062 on: March 13, 2018, 08:28:04 am »

Finally woke up and I'm currently in the middle of the Nor'Eastern, so I'm going to be here all day. But since its the final day, I give a concluding thought.

As we have known for a while, there are very few takeaways from this election. It is only one house seat, on a map that is vanishing. If Lamb wins, then he probably eliminates of of Rothfus's non-monetary incumbency advantage for his challenge to PA-17, with an open PA-14. If Saccone wins, then PA-14 isn't open, but Lamb is still challenging Rothfus - so does it matter?

However, one thing that still hold true, and probably explains why this race became so close, is that the parties really need to ensure good Candidate recruitment. Excluding the controversial torture stuff, Saccone has a excellent resume that would lock up many types of congressional seats. However, as Wasserman states, the best and historically victorious candidates tend to have life stories that are harmonious with the district, regardless of ideology. Saccone lacks the working class  reputation that still flows through the seat, and instead has a more Allegheny-suburban one. His Pro-RTW past probably matched these Republican suburbs - and would match many other parts of the country, but here they sent the still strong Unions against him.

The defending party loves to say that they have candidates who know their district and can localize the race the prevent defeat. However, these special elections have shone that Democrats have a great bench of B - tier candidates who match their seat, while Republicans are struggling with C and D tier candidates that don't match their seats (or F like Moore).
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #1063 on: March 13, 2018, 08:28:36 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.
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Arch
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« Reply #1064 on: March 13, 2018, 08:38:13 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #1065 on: March 13, 2018, 08:38:48 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yep.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1066 on: March 13, 2018, 08:40:02 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1067 on: March 13, 2018, 08:42:16 am »

Miles has his map ready:

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cp
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« Reply #1068 on: March 13, 2018, 08:50:55 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.

I assume this is what we're talking about.

I don't know that it will really affect turnout or Saccone's support ... however, it is a pretty surefire way to make sure the likely (but by no means guaranteed) GOP loss tonight will barely register in the papers over the next few days.

I'm not saying Trump did this, btw. Dumping a secretary of state in order to distract attention away from a single special election loss is spectacularly poor strategy. But to be honest, it fits Trump's modus pretty comfortably.
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« Reply #1069 on: March 13, 2018, 08:52:00 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.

I assume this is what we're talking about.

I don't know that it will really affect turnout or Saccone's support ... however, it is a pretty surefire way to make sure the likely (but by no means guaranteed) GOP loss tonight will barely register in the papers over the next few days.

I'm not saying Trump did this, btw. Dumping a secretary of state in order to distract attention away from a single special election loss is spectacularly poor strategy. But to be honest, it fits Trump's modus pretty comfortably.


Too much of a coincidence for it to be a coincidence.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #1070 on: March 13, 2018, 08:55:58 am »

Heard from a friend that lines are already long in Allegheny. Plus the weather is very nice.

Still ten hours to go.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1071 on: March 13, 2018, 08:57:29 am »


Miles being forced to use the bad colors.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1072 on: March 13, 2018, 08:57:50 am »

Thank you JMC for the map template.

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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #1073 on: March 13, 2018, 09:03:59 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.

I assume this is what we're talking about.

I don't know that it will really affect turnout or Saccone's support ... however, it is a pretty surefire way to make sure the likely (but by no means guaranteed) GOP loss tonight will barely register in the papers over the next few days.

I'm not saying Trump did this, btw. Dumping a secretary of state in order to distract attention away from a single special election loss is spectacularly poor strategy. But to be honest, it fits Trump's modus pretty comfortably.

If he can impose steel tariffs for the sake of this election, then nothing is off the table tbh.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1074 on: March 13, 2018, 09:04:54 am »


Twitter is a cruel place for the proper Atlas colors.
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