Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 15, 2019, 07:53:48 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (Primary) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 99 100 101 102 103 [104] Print
Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 123306 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
Posts: 5,097
United States

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2575 on: March 24, 2018, 10:02:13 pm »

Now I've posted more detailed level election results for South Allegheny a few weeks back here, as well as summarizing some of the data and adding in Demographic data by place in a follow-up post...



Time to take a look at what the data shows for South Allegheny when it comes to the more thorny question of the question of Democratic and Republican base turnout versus swings from Trump '16 > Lamb '18 crossover voters.

This question is perhaps a bit more difficult than some of the data I posted based upon detailed precinct and municipal analysis from the 2017 Alabama US Senate election, where for example I pulled up multiple places where there was clearly a massive flip among Trump '16 > Jones '17 voters in many places throughout the State.... (See link below for example on some interesting items in Baldwin County)


OK---- let's look at the overall Total Vote in municipalities within South Allegheny in the 2018 Special Election as a % Share of the 2016 Presidential Election Total Vote by Municipality and DEM/REP respective % in 2018 of their 2016 PRES numbers to see what if anything this might tells us of enthusiasm gap vs flip voters....

Let's repost the Demographic data chart that I posted previously by Municipality:

Let's throw in a graph I posted regarding '16 GE Pres vs '18 CD-18 Swings:

What does this data tell us?

1.) The highest turnout was in the two places with the highest level of Educational Attainment (Mount Lebanon and Upper St Clair) which had respectively 74% and 70% turnout levels compared to the 2016 General Election, and the next highest level of Turnout was in Bethel Park and Elizabeth Townships.

If we look at the % of the '18 Democratic vote compared to the '16 GE, we see the Democratic Candidate capturing 87% of the Vote in Mt Lebanon, 86% in Bethel Park, 84% in Upper St Clair, and 81% in Elizabeth Township.

We see the 'Pub nominee capturing 60% of the Trump vote in Mt Lebanon, 59% in Bethel Park, 63% in Upper St Clair, and 65% in Elizabeth Township....

1.) It's pretty clear that in Mt Lebanon there was both a mixture of Democratic Base turnout combined with Cross-Over Trump > Lamb voters (After all his home base community) even within the context of relatively high Republican voter turnout).... Overall margins swings were significantly less than we saw in many of the other largest communities within South Allegheny.

2.) Upper St Clair which is the wealthiest and most educated larger municipality, had one of the lowest swings to Lamb compared to Trump '16 %, and had the 2nd highest % level of Republican voters compared to 'Pub GE Pres numbers.

Although I have no doubt that there were quite a few Trump > Lamb voters here, it does not appear that the Upper-Income Anglo voters here (MHI $106.3k/Yr) were nearly as significant as elsewhere within South Allegheny, despite the fact that this was a + 19% McCain '08 district that in '16 became a + 4% Trump district, and then a 55-45 Dem district in '18 Special Election.

Still, it is worthy of noting that this is first time ever in recent political history that this Community has voted Democrat, and with the exception of 2016 has been the most Republican community within South Allegheny.

3.) Bethel Park--- 

If we look at the 2018 Special Election results, it's pretty clear here based upon turnout and % of choice, that there was a significant amount of Trump > Lamb crossover voters compared to many other larger municipalities within the district.... 

If we cross-ref against the other data this appears more like a moderately Middle/ Upper-Middle-Class Community within So Allegheny that is relatively close to the overall Demographic Profile.

4.) Elizabeth----.... Since 2016 has become one of the highest level Republican strongholds within this portion of the County and one of the only 'Pub 18 Municipalities in '18....

We see the lowest differential between Trump '16 and 'Pub '18 numbers, in a high turnout election for both candidates....   Sure it was the 'Pub nominees home town, but still cross-over voters appear much lower here than elsewhere within the district....

5.) Where it appears that we might seem some of the biggest swings are in places such as Jefferson Hills, Pleasant Hills, and Collier.

6.) North Fayette and Robinson are iffier since looking at the overall turnout levels, how much of the swing was a depression of the Republican vote versus voters that swung from Trump '16 to Lamb '18.

7.) Still not so sure about Moon, Scott, South Fayette, and Whitehall regarding the question of Dem/Rep turnout versus Trump > Lamb voters.

Anyways, still looking in more detail at individual precinct results, but wanted to do a first dive into the whole Democratic/Republican Base Turnout question versus Trump voters that swung towards Lamb.

YaBB God
Posts: 1,113
United Kingdom

Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2576 on: April 03, 2018, 07:59:50 am »


You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's official!

PA is Lean D
YaBB God
Posts: 9,460
United States

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2577 on: April 12, 2018, 08:29:45 am »

Conor Lamb will be sworn in at 5 p.m. today.

Pages: 1 ... 99 100 101 102 103 [104] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  

Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC