PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 201700 times)
LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #50 on: March 12, 2018, 12:10:44 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on March 12, 2018, 12:06:04 PM
I think this was the one, Gass. They still were in the field yesterday after all.

Your record is unblemished, dude. Please post any tidbit you get from this source if you can.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #51 on: March 12, 2018, 12:21:37 PM »
I have the geographical results:

Surge model -

Lamb wins Allegheny 62-36
Lamb wins Washington/Greene 49-47
Lamb loses Westmoreland 54-40
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #52 on: March 12, 2018, 08:02:07 PM »
Who's ready for the inevitable panic/elation over anecdotal turnout reports?
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #53 on: March 13, 2018, 09:25:54 AM »
Quote from: Holmes on March 13, 2018, 09:21:22 AM
The weather looks to be the worst in Washington county today if weather.com is to be believed.

I seriously doubt a half-inch of snow will prevent anyone from voting.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #54 on: March 13, 2018, 10:39:02 AM »
This lady seems credible. She's followed by some election nerds.




Looks like there is exit polling, at least for the Lamb campaign.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #55 on: March 13, 2018, 10:43:16 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 13, 2018, 10:41:48 AM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 13, 2018, 10:39:02 AM
This lady seems credible. She's followed by some election nerds.




Looks like there is exit polling, at least for the Lamb campaign.

She's a Political Science professor at the University of Pittsburgh. So very legit.

Ok, so we're at the elation point of the pre-election anecdotal reports.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #56 on: March 13, 2018, 03:29:10 PM »


God willing. God willing.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #57 on: March 13, 2018, 04:03:40 PM »
Quote from: Badger on March 13, 2018, 04:03:02 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 13, 2018, 10:42:30 AM
Also:





Mount Lebanon is of course the one Democratic stronghold in the Allegheny portion of this district, and IRC Lambs home town.

Yes he'll get 70%+ there.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #58 on: March 13, 2018, 04:22:48 PM »
Hello! This is where Lamb will rack up massive margins.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #59 on: March 13, 2018, 04:32:59 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on March 13, 2018, 04:31:43 PM
The Ward 1 precincts that vote at Lincoln Elementary in Mt. Lebanon all went for Clinton by 60-65% of the vote.

Yep. Lamb is getting 75%+ here. Extremely well-known and extremely well liked.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #60 on: March 13, 2018, 04:37:01 PM »

8 ET.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #61 on: March 13, 2018, 04:54:07 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 13, 2018, 04:48:13 PM
This is Washington county. Anyone have total registered voters and past election results for this precinct?



Ok found some info. Was a 62-32 Trump district in 2016 with 676 votes. 400 is pretty damn good so far! Pretty sure this precinct is gonna be Saccone country, as he represents it in the state house.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #62 on: March 13, 2018, 04:55:17 PM »
Ngl I get off on these tweets
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #63 on: March 13, 2018, 05:13:24 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on March 13, 2018, 05:11:53 PM
Quote from: marty on March 13, 2018, 05:09:18 PM
Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?

Kathy Hochul in 2011?

Mark Critz in 2010 might fit the bill as well, though it wasn't a massive upset that he won.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #64 on: March 13, 2018, 05:23:44 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on March 13, 2018, 05:21:49 PM


Wow! This was one of the most democratic precincts in Wash co. in 2018! 48-48 between Trump and Hillary.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #65 on: March 13, 2018, 05:35:53 PM »
I feel confident on Lamb, but this is a tiny bit worrying (and interesting) from a just-published Washington Post article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-pennsylvanias-trump-country-a-surging-democrat-takes-house-race-down-to-the-wire/2018/03/13/d9192ccb-eba1-4cdc-bda3-dffab0ebaddc_story.html?__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true&utm_term=.6e6aa7fb5458

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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #66 on: March 13, 2018, 06:00:49 PM »
Quote from: Virginia on March 13, 2018, 05:42:25 PM
I am not able to be here / monitor the thread closely tonight, so I'm not moving LimoLiberal posts for the time being.

If he becomes a problem in any way, let me know and I will put him on mod review for tonight and just let the posts backlog into the abyss.

(so please don't go mad reporting his posts all night)

Won't be concern-trolling tonight (or anytime in the future). Might be depressed if Lamb loses, but I certainly recognize that even a close loss signifies a democratic wave.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #67 on: March 13, 2018, 06:32:45 PM »
T minus 27 minutes.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #68 on: March 13, 2018, 06:41:55 PM »

ditto. just clicking aimlessly on my trackpad. waiting for 8.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #69 on: March 13, 2018, 06:58:53 PM »


Either they're extremely good at expectations setting, or they really think Saccone is f**ked. We'll find out soon!
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #70 on: March 13, 2018, 07:00:05 PM »
Quote from: Senator #TheShadowyAbyss on March 13, 2018, 06:58:51 PM
Congressional Leadership Fund is essentially saying Lamb won this

Source for this?

Also, it has started. Cue the Ron Paul gif.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #71 on: March 13, 2018, 07:02:30 PM »
Quote from: Sherrod Brown Shill on March 13, 2018, 07:01:46 PM
Guys CNN says "To Early to Call". "To Early to Call"!? Atlas, what is your take on this development?

My mom's friend's dogsitter's son's cat's former owner says that CNN has exit polls showing Lamb up 65-35.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #72 on: March 13, 2018, 07:04:24 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 13, 2018, 07:03:53 PM
I should be studying for a quiz tomorrow...

if Lamb wins, skip school in elation. If he loses, skip school in depression. IMO.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #73 on: March 13, 2018, 07:07:54 PM »
We want a precinct!
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #74 on: March 13, 2018, 07:15:29 PM »

turn the jitter off. There's no results yet.
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