PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 201534 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
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Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #50 on: March 10, 2018, 09:32:29 PM »
Good on Lamb for his rally tomorrow, very good move!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
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Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #51 on: March 11, 2018, 03:59:45 PM »
UMWA and steelworkers in that room is great!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #52 on: March 11, 2018, 04:30:34 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 11, 2018, 04:25:27 PM
Quote from: DTC on March 11, 2018, 04:23:01 PM
Supremely hottake:

- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.

Though I would argue that a Lamb win would make it significantly harder for Republicans to argue against the odds of a Democratic takeover.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #53 on: March 11, 2018, 05:12:07 PM »
What benchmarks are yall looking for Lamb to squeeze out a victory?

I am thinking:

Allegheny: Lamb needs to get just shy of 60% here
Westmoreland: I would say 44% would be a good minimum, could get away with a bit lower though.
Washington: Around 46% would be good, preferred a little higher
Greene: Around 43-44% ought to do the trick.

What do yall think?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #54 on: March 12, 2018, 02:27:13 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 12, 2018, 01:50:51 PM
Quote from: Zyzz on March 12, 2018, 01:49:20 PM
Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!


SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #55 on: March 12, 2018, 02:52:51 PM »


This should have been on his billboards everywhere.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
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Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #56 on: March 13, 2018, 04:28:22 PM »
Guys, I found this gem from Nate Cohn. I mostly agree with it, except I don't see Saccone carrying Waynesburg at all, and his margins in the rest of Green county will probably be slimmer. I also think his lead in the washington co suburbs south of Bethel Park will not be nearly that overwhelming.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #57 on: March 13, 2018, 04:41:24 PM »

7pm Bagel time.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #58 on: March 13, 2018, 04:42:31 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on March 13, 2018, 04:38:54 PM
Quote from: Bagel23 on March 13, 2018, 04:28:22 PM
Guys, I found this gem from Nate Cohn. I mostly agree with it, except I don't see Saccone carrying Waynesburg at all, and his margins in the rest of Green county will probably be slimmer. I also think his lead in the washington co suburbs south of Bethel Park will not be nearly that overwhelming.



It's their approximation of a 50/50 race. If a candidate exceeds the benchmark in a precinct, it'll move the needle in their favor, and vice-versa.

Ah, I see, thanks.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #59 on: March 13, 2018, 04:44:56 PM »
Which will be annoying if Saccone wins, smart on their part.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #60 on: March 13, 2018, 08:09:05 PM »
Not looking too good.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #61 on: March 13, 2018, 08:12:36 PM »
Guys its ok, we can still get through this regardless of what happens, love you all if it is not reciprocated.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #62 on: March 13, 2018, 09:19:07 PM »
It is anybodies race at this point.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #63 on: March 13, 2018, 09:40:55 PM »
Anybody know when the absentee ballots will be counted?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #64 on: March 13, 2018, 09:42:56 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on March 13, 2018, 09:41:28 PM
Quote from: Bagel23 on March 13, 2018, 09:40:55 PM
Anybody know when the absentee ballots will be counted?

Allegheny should report about midnight.  Greene & Washington won't report until tomorrow morning.  Not sure about Westmoreland.

I'll be up till 2 or 3am since its spring break so I'll be waiting.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #65 on: March 13, 2018, 09:46:48 PM »
Anyone know when Westmoreland's absentee ballots come in?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #66 on: March 13, 2018, 09:51:00 PM »
When does Westmoreland count their absentees?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #67 on: March 13, 2018, 09:53:44 PM »
What about Westmoreland's absentees? When are they counted?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #68 on: March 13, 2018, 10:22:09 PM »
COME ON GUYS!!! Let's f****** see this through!!! Hurrah!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #69 on: March 13, 2018, 10:23:14 PM »
Quote from: Truvinny on March 13, 2018, 10:21:32 PM

His bio: "offering voters a fiscally conservative / socially inclusive choice."

Translation: "I love weed, but f**k poor people."

The Libertarian Party needs to be cancelled.

Stop it! DREW MILLER is the man of the hour!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #70 on: March 13, 2018, 11:29:38 PM »
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #71 on: March 13, 2018, 11:35:00 PM »
A Georgian clone of Lamb would have beaten Handel 54-46.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #72 on: March 14, 2018, 01:02:20 AM »

Has anyone yet thought that the GOP might not be so forgiving of Saccone's giant fumble of a perfectly winnable race in which he held almost all advantages just a few months ago? Then he fumbled it with the fault being nearly all his own. I don't know guys, I think he could very well lose the nomination.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #73 on: March 14, 2018, 01:07:57 AM »
Quote from: ERM64man on March 14, 2018, 01:05:15 AM
Could Saccone win a House primary or not?

I'm thinking exactly that too, I don't know, but if the GOP put up literally anyone even a step up from him, I don't think we will be seeing him around.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #74 on: March 14, 2018, 01:08:19 AM »
I'm sitting around waiting for Washco.
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