PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, Washco keeps moving up their release times, I'm gonna go to bed and see what happens.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The same people claiming that Conor is a Republican and that his victory doesn't mean anything for November were calling him a "Pelosi Liberal" just yesterday...

What a time. Rip Hawking btw. So from what I hear there are only a few hundred provsionals and a few dozen military ballots left. Am I wrong, or is that about right?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When does Conor take office?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think CNN just called the race for Lamb.

https://twitter.com/vplus/status/973958262159822849

When will Lamb take office?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Apologies if this has been posted already and I missed it, but PPP did "exit polls" of this race.

When asked "Did you vote for Conor Lamb or Rick Saccone?" 1% of the respondents said "Don't know." Let that sink in for a minute lol.

It might be the people who went third party.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Note that the parts of new PA-14 not in the existing PA-18 are, under normal circumstances at least, considerably more D than the parts in the present PA-18. Worth seriously contesting for the Ds, no matter how badly Clinton bombed there.

I mean it's not just Clinton - Obama lost the district by 18 points in 2012. Sure, there are districts Obama lost by 15-20 points that can still be won by the right Democrat at the right time (especially in Appalachia), but it's not exactly a prime target. If Democrats want to make a play for a deeply WWC district in Pennsylvania, PA-16 would be a much better choice.

It includes all of Fayette County, which Wolf won in 2014.

He still lost Westmoreland by 14 points, despite being ahead by 10 statewide.

I still think the GOP keeps this seat, but it is worth noting that the reddest part of Westmoreland is going into PA 13.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Another terrific map by Miles.

Wow, Rothfus is done. I didn't realize that Mt. Lebanon and the surrounding area was nearly all in the new PA-17; Lamb should be a lock to win.

Both Romney and Trump won that District overall. Lamb is favored but not a lock.