PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

So Lamb practically won. Those absentees are going to boost him.

Are they usually Dem leaning? Why?

Wasserman says that in the past, the absentees have run slightly more D than the overall vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For the record, the official Bush margin of victory in Florida in 2000 was 537 votes. What are we thinking, closer than that?

Probably yes in absolute terms.  In percentage, maybe not.  Florida was 537 votes out of 6 million; there are only about 200K votes here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

All things considered, I'm glad the Needle wasn't functional tonight.  It would have raised the anxiety level here to new levels.

This race won't be called tonight.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anybody know when the absentee ballots will be counted?

Allegheny should report about midnight.  Greene & Washington won't report until tomorrow morning.  Not sure about Westmoreland.

[GeorgiaModerate]

DDHQ just tweeted these numbers:

Lamb (D) - 107, 456 (49.9%)
Saccone (R) - 106,345 (49.4%)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lost in all of this: monmouth pooped the bed.

their high turnout model (which this race is) is off by labout 5 points.

That's holding them to too high a standard.  This is still within the MoE for that projection.  (And historically, the error for polling special elections has been much higher than that for regular elections.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

ALLEGHENY ALL IN.  LAMB BY 755.

They're saying 100% but unclear if this includes absentees. Greene is counting absentees tomorrow and says they are 100% reporting.

Oh good point.
Did Allegheny already count their absentees?
Are those votes already in with these totals?

No, their absentee count will be done around midnight.

[GeorgiaModerate]

755 votes. I don't think Rick can make up raw vote and absentee should boost Lamb around midnight  

Not so sure. Most of the remaining precincts are in Peters, where there are six precincts remaining. It's been strong for Saccone, with his average net votes per precinct around 120 or so. It will be very close before absentees.

The other two Washington county precincts are one in North Strabane, where Saccone should net around 50 votes or so, and one in Chartiers, which should be around a wash.

If Saccone comes out on top tonight but absentees give the victory to Lamb, the meltdown on the right is going to be epic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If absentees come in as expected, Lamb should win in a crazy close squeaker.  Like 200-300 votes maybe?

That's a reasonable estimate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

And since Westmoreland isn't reporting results by precinct tonight, we don't know anything about the two remaining ones.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What I get is that since it's this close tonight, Lamb will win once absentees are counted tomorrow.

Yeah, Wasserman is saying that Lamb will probably win by a few hundred after absentees are counted.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does someone have the "definite" means of determining that the Allegheny absentees have NOT been counted yet?
This "fact" is scaring me. I need a 100% for sure answer to this.

CNN just said that no absentees have been reported yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

DDHQ says the last 2 Westmoreland precincts are:

Latrobe, 2nd ward
Ligonier (North Ligonier)

These and their absentees will report within the next hour.

[GeorgiaModerate]

LAMB UP BY ANOTHER 752!

HE'S DONE IT!

WAIT WHAT WHERE

Per live report on CNN with info they got directly from the county.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN says 3206 absentees in the other 3 counties.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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I'm calling it a night.  Stay safe, folks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

It seems that the close race, and a the now chance of a recount is allowing the GOP to basically avoid talking about the fact they lost a seat they should never have lost

They can avoid talking, they can spin, but the representatives know what's happening.

They should be quaking in their boots.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think CNN just called the race for Lamb.

https://twitter.com/vplus/status/973958262159822849

When will Lamb take office?

They'll have to wait for the remaining military ballots to arrive and be counted (I think the deadline is Tuesday), any recounts to happen, and the results to be certified.  So I suspect it's at least 2 or 3 weeks at a minimum.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crazy Drumpf

https://www.twitter.com/mkraju/status/973994661504266240

I'm just trying to imagine this spin the morning after Election Night. "Democrats embraced my policies, so I didn't lose the midterms." lololol

If D's win something like 50 seats, I really don't think they'll care much how Trump and other R's spin it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just realized Lamb will be second youngest person in Congress, he's only 5 days older than Elise Stefanik.

He's five days younger isn't he? Stefanik was born on July 2nd and Lamb was born on June 27th.

Nope.  Earlier birthday = older.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Apologies if this has been posted already and I missed it, but PPP did "exit polls" of this race.

When asked "Did you vote for Conor Lamb or Rick Saccone?" 1% of the respondents said "Don't know." Let that sink in for a minute lol.

It might be the people who went third party.

Or not wanting to reveal their choice.