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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 122826 times)
Andy Beshear Have My Babies
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« Reply #875 on: March 11, 2018, 01:52:37 pm »


This newspaper endorsement will shift the race approximately 0.02% to Rick Saccone. Nobody hears about newspaper endorsements, and even less people care.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #876 on: March 11, 2018, 02:32:58 pm »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #877 on: March 11, 2018, 03:35:17 pm »

There is a new poll going around from KG Polling that shows Lamb up 49-45.  However, G. Elliott Morris says this is a fake poll, put out by the same people behind BRD Research, apparently in an attempt to influence betting markets.
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DemocraticKing
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« Reply #878 on: March 11, 2018, 03:35:25 pm »


This newspaper endorsement will shift the race approximately 0.02% to Rick Saccone. Nobody hears about newspaper endorsements, and even less people care.

Not to mention, the local paper for Greene County and those other ancestrally Dem counties actually endorsed Lamb.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #879 on: March 11, 2018, 03:59:45 pm »

UMWA and steelworkers in that room is great!
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #880 on: March 11, 2018, 04:09:10 pm »

Lamb by 3.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #881 on: March 11, 2018, 04:21:10 pm »

Nobody reads the PG.
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Andy Beshear Have My Babies
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« Reply #882 on: March 11, 2018, 04:23:01 pm »

Supremely hottake:

- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #883 on: March 11, 2018, 04:30:34 pm »

Supremely hottake:

- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.

Though I would argue that a Lamb win would make it significantly harder for Republicans to argue against the odds of a Democratic takeover.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #884 on: March 11, 2018, 04:32:25 pm »

Supremely hottake:

- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.

Hotter than the heart of a supernova.

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #885 on: March 11, 2018, 04:42:48 pm »

Supremely hottake:

- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.

Though I would argue that a Lamb win would make it significantly harder for Republicans to argue against the odds of a Democratic takeover.

This is an exceptional area, having such a Democratic heritage that it was both +20 Mondale in 1984 and +40 Trump in 2016.  A Lamb win would boost candidates like Ojeda and the Dems running in the Obama-Trump Upstate NY districts significantly, but it says next to nothing about e.g. the Romney-Clinton CDs. 

That having been said, if they are winning back this kind of seat, there is an all Midwest/Rust Belt path to a Dem House majority out there. 
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #886 on: March 11, 2018, 04:50:04 pm »

Supremely hottake:

- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.

Though I would argue that a Lamb win would make it significantly harder for Republicans to argue against the odds of a Democratic takeover.

This is an exceptional area, having such a Democratic heritage that it was both +20 Mondale in 1984 and +40 Trump in 2016.  A Lamb win would boost candidates like Ojeda and the Dems running in the Obama-Trump Upstate NY districts significantly, but it says next to nothing about e.g. the Romney-Clinton CDs.  

That having been said, if they are winning back this kind of seat, there is an all Midwest/Rust Belt path to a Dem House majority out there.  

shrug* If lamb wins, it will be because the highly educated suburbs in Allegheny pulled him over the top, not the southern areas returning to the fold. Which largely lines up with what we are seeing in federal special and regular elections - a dem over-performance everywhere but more tied to suburbs/urban zones and education levels.


Also, the main reason for my post, Cohn's got a nice map with data:

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Andy Beshear Have My Babies
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« Reply #887 on: March 11, 2018, 04:52:36 pm »

Supremely hottake:

- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.

Though I would argue that a Lamb win would make it significantly harder for Republicans to argue against the odds of a Democratic takeover.

This is an exceptional area, having such a Democratic heritage that it was both +20 Mondale in 1984 and +40 Trump in 2016.  A Lamb win would boost candidates like Ojeda and the Dems running in the Obama-Trump Upstate NY districts significantly, but it says next to nothing about e.g. the Romney-Clinton CDs.  

That having been said, if they are winning back this kind of seat, there is an all Midwest/Rust Belt path to a Dem House majority out there.  

shrug* If lamb wins, it will be because the highly educated suburbs in Allegheny pulled him over the top, not the southern areas returning to the fold. Which largely lines up with what we are seeing in federal special and regular elections - a dem over-performance everywhere but more tied to suburbs/urban zones and education levels.


Also, the main reason for my post, Cohn's got a nice map with data:



But both the educated and uneducated areas are swinging. Which means it'd be a good result for both Clinton-Republican districts and Obama-Trump districts.

Anyways my point about the whole "this doesn't prove dems are winning house thing" is just that it's 1 data point. 1 good data point of out like.... 50 different good data points we have for dems.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #888 on: March 11, 2018, 05:07:17 pm »

I'm just also going to note that the south of this district isn't even Obama-trump territory...its more like Gore-Kerryish-Tepid McCain-Romney-Hard Trump. Like its hard to remember but this PA-12 in 2000 was drawn as a Dem pack to make that years PA-18 safe-R, but by 2010 is was a Tossup seat won by McCain. Even though these counties maintain a strong dem registration advantage, they have been moving right for quite some time.

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Bagel23
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« Reply #889 on: March 11, 2018, 05:12:07 pm »

What benchmarks are yall looking for Lamb to squeeze out a victory?

I am thinking:

Allegheny: Lamb needs to get just shy of 60% here
Westmoreland: I would say 44% would be a good minimum, could get away with a bit lower though.
Washington: Around 46% would be good, preferred a little higher
Greene: Around 43-44% ought to do the trick.

What do yall think?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #890 on: March 11, 2018, 05:15:59 pm »

What benchmarks are yall looking for Lamb to squeeze out a victory?

I am thinking:

Allegheny: Lamb needs to get just shy of 60% here
Westmoreland: I would say 44% would be a good minimum, could get away with a bit lower though.
Washington: Around 46% would be good, preferred a little higher
Greene: Around 43-44% ought to do the trick.

What do yall think?

Probably less in Westmoreland, the county barely plurality D by the registration count in contrast to the rest of the region. Probably more Washington, the county is 2 points to the right of the district as a whole, and has a small mix of olds school dems and highly educated voters
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #891 on: March 11, 2018, 05:17:20 pm »

I feel like all of the union endorsements Lamb is getting is the key to victory. It's the key to reawakening the sleeping Democrat.


Btw, I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about that Monmouth poll.
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You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
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« Reply #892 on: March 11, 2018, 05:19:37 pm »

I feel like all of the union endorsements Lamb is getting is the key to victory. It's the key to reawakening the sleeping Democrat.


Btw, I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about that Monmouth poll.
How will that endorsement from the Pittsburgh paper affect things?
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #893 on: March 11, 2018, 05:33:04 pm »

I feel like all of the union endorsements Lamb is getting is the key to victory. It's the key to reawakening the sleeping Democrat.


Btw, I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about that Monmouth poll.
How will that endorsement from the Pittsburgh paper affect things?

No affect. People have pretty much made up their mind. Plus we have seen the lions share of undecideds going for Conor. I fail to see how a paper's endorsement would completely reverse that.

I also strongly believe that the union endorsements are far more powerful.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #894 on: March 11, 2018, 05:33:59 pm »

Note: In preparation for the Monmouth poll being released tomorrow, last month's had Saccone up 3 points. So I have a strong feeling it will have Lamb up.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #895 on: March 11, 2018, 05:52:02 pm »

Trump and Republicans may be expecting a Lamb victory...

https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-privately-trashes-rick-saccone-1520806446-c7033bad-f7a4-4d92-80a7-40113967a0e2.html
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Speaker YE
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« Reply #896 on: March 11, 2018, 05:58:39 pm »


There trying to set the bar low and play the expectations game.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #897 on: March 11, 2018, 06:14:41 pm »


Lol. Low Energy Rick
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #898 on: March 11, 2018, 07:10:31 pm »

This is a bigger deal than the PG: Lamb won the endorsement of the "Observer-Reporter" which is the largest newspaper in two of the counties (Greene and Washington) I believe those two will be Saccone's best counties so this is excellent for Conor!

https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-th-district-election-lamb-is-the-best-choice/article_e3246e5e-2080-11e8-abc5-c31a5a33de84.html
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #899 on: March 11, 2018, 07:13:03 pm »

A reader poll is on the front page of the Observer's website that asks the people who they will vote for.

Conor Lamb: 48%
Rick Saccone: 40%

It's a reader poll and you just click so it carries very little weight.
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