Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 06, 2019, 12:31:42 am
News: 2020 U.S. Senate Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 32 33 34 35 36 [37] 38 39 40 41 42 ... 104 Print
Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 122600 times)
Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
Zyzz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,840


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #900 on: March 11, 2018, 07:16:32 pm »


I can't wait to see the Orange Clown eat sh**t over this. How can he blame anyone but himself here? Sacconne has been such a disgraceful Trump sycophant and has completely embraced Trumpism. Trump said Gillespie lost because he did not embrace Trumpism. I look forward to the Orange Clown's Twitter meltdown on Tuesday night.
Logged
Andy Beshear Have My Babies
DTC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,206


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #901 on: March 11, 2018, 07:16:48 pm »

That reader poll just got a 65+ eskimo voter that voted for Connor Lamb
Logged
You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
politicalmasta73
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,994
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #902 on: March 11, 2018, 07:17:47 pm »

This is a bigger deal than the PG: Lamb won the endorsement of the "Observer-Reporter" which is the largest newspaper in two of the counties (Greene and Washington) I believe those two will be Saccone's best counties so this is excellent for Conor!

https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-th-district-election-lamb-is-the-best-choice/article_e3246e5e-2080-11e8-abc5-c31a5a33de84.html
In reality, either candidate would probably be able and competent when it comes to representing the 18th Congressional District.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,087


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #903 on: March 11, 2018, 07:21:48 pm »


Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,933
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #904 on: March 11, 2018, 07:34:06 pm »


Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.

Don't most states prohibit being on the ballot for multiple offices, unless one of them is President or Vice President?
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,570
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #905 on: March 11, 2018, 07:36:31 pm »

We're supposedly due for snow here in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Any idea how, if it all, it could affect the election? To me it sounds like it would favor Saccone.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,990


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #906 on: March 11, 2018, 07:39:09 pm »


Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.

Don't most states prohibit being on the ballot for multiple offices, unless one of them is President or Vice President?

I'm also sure there is something against holding multiple offices at the same time, despite the fact that this has been push several time (Huey Long anyone?). I know in distant past young democracies often saw national figures elected to multiple constituencies, like Lamartine in 1848 France, though they mostly only choose 1 to represent.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,087


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #907 on: March 11, 2018, 07:39:47 pm »

We're supposedly due for snow here in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Any idea how, if it all, it could affect the election? To me it sounds like it would favor Saccone.

Wouldn't bad weather tend to help the candidate with the more enthusiastic supporters, which from reports so far seems more likely to be Lamb?
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,990


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #908 on: March 11, 2018, 07:41:06 pm »

We're supposedly due for snow here in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Any idea how, if it all, it could affect the election? To me it sounds like it would favor Saccone.

Pretty much 0 early vote, so everyone depends on same day voting. Which in turn depends really about who has the better ground game.
Logged
PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,357
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #909 on: March 11, 2018, 07:43:40 pm »

We're supposedly due for snow here in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Any idea how, if it all, it could affect the election? To me it sounds like it would favor Saccone.

The candidate with the more enthusiastic base (Lamb) probably won't have a problem.
Logged
Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
MAINEiac4434
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,309
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #910 on: March 11, 2018, 07:46:16 pm »

We're supposedly due for snow here in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Any idea how, if it all, it could affect the election? To me it sounds like it would favor Saccone.

Wouldn't bad weather tend to help the candidate with the more enthusiastic supporters, which from reports so far seems more likely to be Lamb?
Yes. Bad weather favors the underdog.

Whoever is the underdog is anybody’s guess.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,087


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #911 on: March 11, 2018, 07:47:37 pm »


Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.

Don't most states prohibit being on the ballot for multiple offices, unless one of them is President or Vice President?

Ah, good point.  Without such laws it would be an interesting idea.
Logged
PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,357
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #912 on: March 11, 2018, 07:52:09 pm »


Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.

Don't most states prohibit being on the ballot for multiple offices, unless one of them is President or Vice President?

Ah, good point.  Without such laws it would be an interesting idea.

I meant that I endorse him for his current PA18 run and that I endorse him for his eventual PA17 run.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,087


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #913 on: March 11, 2018, 07:57:14 pm »


Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.

Don't most states prohibit being on the ballot for multiple offices, unless one of them is President or Vice President?

Ah, good point.  Without such laws it would be an interesting idea.

I meant that I endorse him for his current PA18 run and that I endorse him for his eventual PA17 run.

I got that.  It was just seeing it written that way that sent me off into a flight of fancy. Smiley
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,323
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #914 on: March 11, 2018, 08:06:27 pm »

This is a bigger deal than the PG: Lamb won the endorsement of the "Observer-Reporter" which is the largest newspaper in two of the counties (Greene and Washington) I believe those two will be Saccone's best counties so this is excellent for Conor!

https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-th-district-election-lamb-is-the-best-choice/article_e3246e5e-2080-11e8-abc5-c31a5a33de84.html
In reality, either candidate would probably be able and competent when it comes to representing the 18th Congressional District.

I'm not sure that could be set of Saccone considering how far right and lazy of a candidate has been. Though admittedly if he got in he be Congressman for life for the new Westmoreland base District
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,075
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #915 on: March 11, 2018, 08:20:33 pm »

So I decided to spend a little bit of time looking at precinct level data for the Allegheny County portion of the district to see what if anything it might tell us about the upcoming Special Election....

For starters, here is overall how the CD-18 section of the County voted in US PRES elections between 2008 and 2016.

Thanks to Oryxslayer for posting the data from '08 a few pages back!!!



So apologies for restating the obvious to many of us, but the historically Democratic Parts of the district are not actually located within Allegheny County, which has actually been gradually shifting slightly towards the Democratic Party over the past decade, even as Washington and Greene Counties have been swinging hard Republican.

Where are the voters located within South Allegheny CD-18?

Because there are so many municipal jurisdictions in this heavily suburban/exurban area, and diffuse concentration of voters, I had to consolidate places with less than 3% into the "Other" category, but at least include over 80% of the voters into discrete subcategories....



So in order of voting population:

1.) Mt Lebanon--- 12.7%
2.) Bethel Park- 12.0%
3.) Moon-  8.1%
4.) Upper St Clair--- 7.6%
5.) Scott--- 5.4%
6.) S. Fayette- 5.1%
7.) Whitehall--- 4.9%
8.) South Park-- 4.6%
9.) Elizabeth Twp--- 4.4%
10.) N. Fayette--- 4.2%
11.) Robinson--- 4.2%
12.) Jefferson HL--- 3.9%
13.) Pleasant HL--- 3.0%
14.) Collier--- 3.0%

We'll be getting back to some of these places in more detail shortly....

How did these places vote in the 2016 Presidential Election?



Now let's take a look at these same places in the 2012 Presidential Election....



NOW---- Where and what were the swings within South Allegheny (CD-18) between 2012 and 2016???



So, interestingly enough pretty much almost all of the larger population centers within the County swung against Donald Trump with roughly 20% swings in Mt Lebanon and Upton St Clair....

Now, as we have seen before even in areas that swung +20% Dem between '12 and '16, there is still further room for collapse, meaning that considering Trump's decreased approval ratings over the past year, it is entirely plausible that we could see even more significant swings towards a local Centrist Dem candidate in some of these suburban/exurban South Allegheny political jurisdictions....

Ok--- time to dig a bit further into the weeds of South Allegheny CD-18  and check out some of the Social Demographics for various communities within the district....

1.) Mount Lebanon Township---- Pop 33k--- MHI $ 76.0k/Yr--- 91% White--- 68% Degree > HS---
 2016 Pres (61-34 D)


Occupation sectors heavily concentrated in Professional and Management....



Needless to say, we will likely see extremely high turnout here on Tuesday, as well as likely increased swings beyond the 2016 (61-34 D) numbers from the 2012 (53-46 D) numbers.

2.) Bethel Park--- Pop 32.3k--- MHI $ 69.3k/Yr--- 95% White--- 53% Degree > HS    2016 (43-52 R)




This is obviously a must win and must win by +10% City for Lamb, since if recent polls of the CD are to believed Trump is sitting at only about 50% Fav ratings (+3-4%), it's places like this where his support likely slumped more so than in other areas....

3.) Moon Township--- Pop 24.6k--- MHI $ 67.2k/Yr--- 89% White--- 53% Degree > HS, 2016---
 (43-53 R)


Occupations...



So despite the household income and educational attainment similar to Bethel Park, is a bit more Blue Collar/ Pink Collar, with a much smaller percentage of workers concentrated in the "Knowledge and Professional sectors"

Similar to Bethel Park, this is a place where Lamb needs to win by at least high single digits

4.) Upper St Clair Township--- Pop 19.3k--- MHI $ 106.3k/Yr--- 90% White--- 74% Degree > HS--- 2016 (46-50 R)

This was only one of two places in South Allegheny (CD-18) that swung 20% towards HRC between '12 and '16, although it was still a (46-49 R) jurisdiction in 2016....

Occupations....



Needless to say there is a disproportionate amount of Upper Middle Class voters here in what appears to be more a "Country Club Republican" part of the County....

We'll see how this area votes after Tuesday, but if the results we have seen from NoVa to Alabama in similar districts in Special Elections recreate themselves in the "Rust Belt", I wouldn't be surprised to see this Township flip hard against Trump....

5. Scott Township--- Pop 17.0k--- MHI $ 61.4k/ Yr--- 82% White, 11% Asian--- 53% Degree > HS.... 2016 (52-44 D)

Occupations:



So this one is a bit interesting, in that although it didn't have the dramatic swings towards HRC that Mt Lebanon and Upper St Clair did, but yet it is fairly highly educated with a relatively large Asian-American population, and yet moderately low MHI numbers, and one of the only Obama 2012 places within Allegheny CD-18....

Not sure how much swing is left in the '17 Special election, but would imagine a 60-40 Lamb margin would be my target numbers here....

6.) South Fayette Township--- Pop 14.7k--- MHI $ 78.9k--- 90% White/ 7% Asian--- 54% > HS Degree... 2016 (44-52 R)

Occupations....



Ok.... suspect I'm starting to run out of space on the character count for a post, but I think we're starting to get the picture that a good chunk of the voting population of the County are actually Suburban/Exurban Pittsburgh voters, like some of our well known local experts on SW PA have been stating....

So which parts of South Allegheny (CD-18) swung towards Trump compared to 2012?

1.) Elizabeth Township (+11 'Pub swing '12 to '16)--- Pop 13.3k--- MHI $ 59.7k--- 98% White--- 36% Degree > HS

Now this is a pretty old district in terms of age compared to the Allegheny CD section of the County, right over the border from Westmoreland County, and a bit removed from Metro Pittsburgh, so in some ways I would suspect the demographics more closely resemble parts of Greene and Washington County, than most of Southern Allegheny....

2.) We saw a few other marginal swings towards Trump compared to Romney '12 'Pub percentages in Jefferson Hills Township, North Fayette, and South Park Township, but interestingly enough there was only a 1% increase on the 'Pub voting percentage between '12 and '16 in these three places, meaning that although there were swings, it was mainly as a result of defections towards 3rd Party Candidates.


To finish: I don't know what if anything all of this means in the context of an extremely unusual special election in a district Trump won by + 20%.

What I do know is that the trends in the South Allegheny County portion of the district are not at all favorable towards Trump, and considering that 43% of the CD-18 vote is cast here will likely be the make or break moment for Lamb....

Like Pittsburgh Steel and some other knowledgeable posters have been saying this district isn't nearly as "rural" as is being present by the MSM on all Media outlets....

I almost spat out my coffee this morning listening to a media pundit talking talking about how the "Democratic suburbs of Pittsburgh" might flip this district....

Still, in order for Lamb to win this district it will require both a significant swing towards the Dem in South Allegheny (That is increasingly shifting Dem in the "Age of Trump"), combined with recovering enough Ancestral Dem voters in Washington and Greene Counties that as recently as 2008 were only narrowly won by McCain by the sliver of a hair off of my neckbeard.
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,323
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #916 on: March 11, 2018, 08:35:03 pm »

Awesome post Nova, but I was disappointed you wouldn't continue it for all the other non other jurisdictions in Allegheny County. Totally unreasonable of me, but there you go. Also had to LOL at the admission to having a neckbeard.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,075
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #917 on: March 11, 2018, 08:54:58 pm »

So slightly OT, but still tangential considering that after all this is a part of the US that is at the Heart of Steel Industry, people seem to forget that ever since FDR passed away, even in the core of heavy industrial Union Country, there is still a collective memory about the crackdown on organized labor after WW II when workers walked out in massive strikes including the Coal Mines, Steel Industry, Shipyards, etc.... since as part of no pay raises to support the war effort against the Nazis/Fascists/Japanese Colonialists our Grandparents were expecting the promise to be delivered that FDR had promised.

Harry Truman right off the bat took aim at the Coal Miners and Steel Workers, and even did the old "Boss thing" from the 1910s and 1920s and sent National Guard troops into the Mines and Mills...]

Thing about Steel and Coal Country is that there are a lot of ancestral roots, and unfortunately even most Democratic Presidents over the past 70 years haven't really shown that they are on the side of Labor....

Anyways.... Harry Truman nationalized the Steel Industry right before a General Strike in the early '50s during the Korean War, and eventually after a few brief months ended up folding to the Steelworkers demands.

Union tradition runs deep in many Ancestral Dem Heavy Industrial areas, but at the same time is it any wonder that even at the peak of the Labor Movement within these districts, there has long been a deep distrust of Democratic Presidential Candidates?

So to close it out, here is a brief news clip from the UK about the US Still Strike of '51/'52

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itFlzpQusRg
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,075
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #918 on: March 11, 2018, 09:24:30 pm »

Awesome post Nova, but I was disappointed you wouldn't continue it for all the other non other jurisdictions in Allegheny County. Totally unreasonable of me, but there you go. Also had to LOL at the admission to having a neckbeard.

1.) I do have some PDF numbers for Washington and Greene Counties, but unfortunately my regular source for easily exportable precinct level results doesn't include these two counties, nor Westmoreland as well....

2.) If I had started the project earlier, I might have been able to pull together some numbers for the other Counties in the CD, but without an OCR reader to convert PDF data to easily import/export into Excel, I would be spending additional hours of my time on this project.... Sad

3.) Yes---- I am currently in possession of fabulous neckbeard as a result of an occupational shift from Management to now working a job on the Factory Floor, where I can grow out my beard and wear my heavy metal T-Shirts and Jeans with zero worries about how my image might impact the customer perceptions of business services that we provide running the Factory Floor so long as we maintain "Outs" and "Yields"...   Wink
Logged
PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,357
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #919 on: March 11, 2018, 11:35:06 pm »

These numbers seem attainable

Logged
PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,357
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #920 on: March 11, 2018, 11:37:27 pm »

If Eugene DePasquale can almost win it, then Lamb can win.

Logged
Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
Zyzz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,840


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #921 on: March 12, 2018, 01:25:03 am »

Will CNN and other networks be covering this race like they did for the VA and NJ gubernatorial races?
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,961


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #922 on: March 12, 2018, 07:20:36 am »

Politico article: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/12/pennsylvania-special-election-lamb-saccone-454728

Here's a polling tidbit:
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Justice Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,434
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #923 on: March 12, 2018, 07:38:37 am »

It's the first bit of positive news I've seen the republicans try and spin, rather than just thrashing their candidate

Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,961


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #924 on: March 12, 2018, 08:06:47 am »

Because we have a lot of stickied threads, I'm thinking that on Tuesday I unsticky this one and conversation will migrate to the Congressional Results thread, where eventually it will peter out. What do people think?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 32 33 34 35 36 [37] 38 39 40 41 42 ... 104 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC