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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 126150 times)
smoltchanov
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« Reply #100 on: January 14, 2018, 01:24:57 am »

The thing is, you run ads showing Trump promising to bring these jobs back on the backdrop of this mine closure. Then what? Lamb promises to bring the jobs back? Why would voters believe him after just being burned? henster is right in that the focus should be on bringing in new industries and tech to the area but would the people who live there even want that?

That's exactly the problem: they want jobs, but not ANY jobs, if i understood correctly. They don't want to undergo retraining, and then - be employed in "green technologies" or IT area. They want COAL jobs, they are accustomed to, and they already have enough skills to do (right now). Who can give them THAT?Huh
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Holmes
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« Reply #101 on: January 14, 2018, 02:02:23 am »

The thing is, you run ads showing Trump promising to bring these jobs back on the backdrop of this mine closure. Then what? Lamb promises to bring the jobs back? Why would voters believe him after just being burned? henster is right in that the focus should be on bringing in new industries and tech to the area but would the people who live there even want that?

That's exactly the problem: they want jobs, but not ANY jobs, if i understood correctly. They don't want to undergo retraining, and then - be employed in "green technologies" or IT area. They want COAL jobs, they are accustomed to, and they already have enough skills to do (right now). Who can give them THAT?Huh

No one. The world is changing. If they don't want to change with it, they will be left behind or be forced to move away.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #102 on: January 14, 2018, 02:08:39 am »

The thing is, you run ads showing Trump promising to bring these jobs back on the backdrop of this mine closure. Then what? Lamb promises to bring the jobs back? Why would voters believe him after just being burned? henster is right in that the focus should be on bringing in new industries and tech to the area but would the people who live there even want that?

That's exactly the problem: they want jobs, but not ANY jobs, if i understood correctly. They don't want to undergo retraining, and then - be employed in "green technologies" or IT area. They want COAL jobs, they are accustomed to, and they already have enough skills to do (right now). Who can give them THAT?Huh

No one. The world is changing. If they don't want to change with it, they will be left behind or be forced to move away.

In long-term perspective - of course. But for now - they are still there, still voting, and still angry. Possibly - that's one of the reasons why Appalachia now votes the way it does.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #103 on: January 14, 2018, 06:21:15 pm »

Atlas posters tend to fundamentally misunderstand the voters and assume they are motivated by facts and logic. They're motivated by emotion, tribalism, and their own version of reality. Trump could've personally ordered the closing of that mine on video tape and they'd still say it was fake news, blame Obama/Hillary, and continue to strongly support their god emperor.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #104 on: January 17, 2018, 11:44:24 am »

Something is happening here:

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #105 on: January 17, 2018, 12:02:26 pm »

Yeah, I'm not buying that this poll is accurate given how badly Republicans have fared in all the other special elections so far (WI in particular). Tossup/Tilt D.
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Holmes
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« Reply #106 on: January 17, 2018, 12:42:16 pm »

Yeah, something is up. Republicans are making their panic a bit too obvious. Worth keeping an eye on.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #107 on: January 17, 2018, 12:45:47 pm »

Something is happening here:

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The Wisconsin special election race probably spooked them. North western Wisconsin is similar to south western Pennsylvania. Saccone has also been really struggling with fundraising and volunteers.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #108 on: January 17, 2018, 01:03:11 pm »

I think this is a $-driven freakout, not a polling driven freakout. The fundamentals favor Saccone, but if he's broke, he could fail.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #109 on: January 17, 2018, 01:08:37 pm »

I wonder if they really just want a big win for Saccone to push back against the blue-wave narrative and underperformance in special elections. Because polling (both national and district) shows that Saccone should win easily.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #110 on: January 17, 2018, 01:10:43 pm »

I think this is a $-driven freakout, not a polling driven freakout. The fundamentals favor Saccone, but if he's broke, he could fail.

I agree. Lamb is also the far superior candidate. He's young, good looking, a vet, charismatic, and very intelligent. I can see the many potential reasons why the GOP is freaking out.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #111 on: January 17, 2018, 01:14:46 pm »

I think this is a $-driven freakout, not a polling driven freakout. The fundamentals favor Saccone, but if he's broke, he could fail.

I agree. Lamb is also the far superior candidate. He's young, good looking, a vet, charismatic, and very intelligent. I can see the many potential reasons why the GOP is freaking out.

Will there be a debate?
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henster
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« Reply #112 on: January 17, 2018, 03:18:10 pm »

Maybe instead of Steyer wasting $$ buying books and pointless impeachment ads he could put his money to good use. And where is the DCCC/DNC?
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #113 on: January 17, 2018, 04:07:22 pm »

Something is happening here:

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The Wisconsin special election race probably spooked them. North western Wisconsin is similar to south western Pennsylvania. Saccone has also been really struggling with fundraising and volunteers.

How so? NW WI swung heavily toward Obama in 2008, SW PA was one of the few places in the country to swing against him.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #114 on: January 17, 2018, 07:52:52 pm »

New York Times says internal polls on both sides report "single-digit race," confirms Republican dog sweat.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/17/us/politics/trump-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html?_r=0

I still believe Republicans will successfully nationalize this and eke out a win even though Saccone sucks and Lamb is Jesus with dimples.
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henster
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« Reply #115 on: January 17, 2018, 11:29:50 pm »

I'm sure we will have another great debate on whether Pelosi should go in the coming weeks. It looks like Pelosi will the main thing they'll tie Lamb to.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #116 on: January 17, 2018, 11:52:00 pm »

Maybe instead of Steyer wasting $$ buying books and pointless impeachment ads he could put his money to good use. And where is the DCCC/DNC?

Please don't Ossoff this sh!t.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #117 on: January 18, 2018, 12:02:28 am »

New York Times says internal polls on both sides report "single-digit race," confirms Republican dog sweat.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/17/us/politics/trump-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html?_r=0

I still believe Republicans will successfully nationalize this and eke out a win even though Saccone sucks and Lamb is Jesus with dimples.

I can believe in single-digit race here, but, most likely, with Republican advantage (say, +7-8)...
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #118 on: January 18, 2018, 03:08:53 am »
« Edited: January 18, 2018, 06:37:34 am by Landslide Lyndon »

In the article above it's mentioned that Lamb raised 550000$ during the 4Q while Saccone raised 200000$.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #119 on: January 18, 2018, 05:46:46 am »

Yeah after Alabama I'm very confident the various democractic groups understand how to put money into a race subtly
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Brittain33
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« Reply #120 on: January 18, 2018, 07:47:23 am »

I'm sure we will have another great debate on whether Pelosi should go in the coming weeks. It looks like Pelosi will the main thing they'll tie Lamb to.

Lamb has said repeatedly he's not voting for Pelosi for Speaker.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #121 on: January 18, 2018, 07:50:35 am »

Stickied
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Holmes
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« Reply #122 on: January 18, 2018, 09:36:48 am »

Lamb released his first TV ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/953991405353013248
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Brittain33
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« Reply #123 on: January 18, 2018, 09:39:17 am »

It's interesting. He's going on the offensive against Pelosi in that ad. If Democrats win a narrow majority, then I suppose Pelosi will *have* to go, no? Too many Democrats will have made this pledge.
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« Reply #124 on: January 18, 2018, 09:44:59 am »

It's interesting. He's going on the offensive against Pelosi in that ad. If Democrats win a narrow majority, then I suppose Pelosi will *have* to go, no? Too many Democrats will have made this pledge.

Or they’ll just break it Tongue
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