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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 126134 times)
It's Trotsky Time
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« Reply #225 on: January 26, 2018, 06:11:29 pm »

Watch as Lamb wins by >10 points lol
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Ebsy
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« Reply #226 on: January 26, 2018, 06:18:04 pm »

Worst political ad since demon sheep. If the GOP is going to spend 300k on ads like that Lamb has nothing to worry about.
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Chromium R Florida
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« Reply #227 on: January 26, 2018, 07:32:14 pm »
« Edited: January 26, 2018, 07:35:04 pm by Fmr. Pres. Griff »

Did Al Gore win PA-18 under current borders in 2000?

Just some quick napkin math/approximations here:

Obama lost PA-18 by 11 in 2008. Judging by the swing map for 2008 and the population distribution of the district, I'd say Kerry lost by roughly the same amount. The 2004 swing map suggests that Kerry did anywhere from 1-5 points worse than Gore, so that leads me to believe that Bush won PA-18 in 2000 by around 5 points.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #228 on: January 26, 2018, 07:39:45 pm »

Oh, I forgot to tell everyone that I'm hitting the field for Lamb tomorrow.

Let us know how it goes!
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #229 on: January 26, 2018, 09:05:44 pm »

Did Al Gore win PA-18 under current borders in 2000?

Just some quick napkin math/approximations here:

Obama lost PA-18 by 11 in 2008. Judging by the swing map for 2008 and the population distribution of the district, I'd say Kerry lost by roughly the same amount. The 2004 swing map suggests that Kerry did anywhere from 1-5 points worse than Gore, so that leads me to believe that Bush won PA-18 in 2000 by around 5 points.

These numbers are pretty close to the truth.  If you go back to the 1980s, Dukakis and even Mondale would have won this district.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #230 on: January 27, 2018, 04:51:03 pm »

Predictit has Saccone at 64c and Lamb at 40c.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3766/Which-party-will-win-the-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Pennsylvania's-18th-district
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #231 on: January 27, 2018, 06:38:44 pm »

Saccone is such an awful candidate lol. Would be hilarious if the GOP manages to sh*t the bed here too.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #232 on: January 27, 2018, 07:21:31 pm »

Democratic pickup
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #233 on: January 27, 2018, 07:37:03 pm »


Predictit is worthless for analysis, I beg everyone to stop with it in analysis.
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Red Tide Rick
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« Reply #234 on: January 27, 2018, 11:30:32 pm »

Saccone is such an awful candidate lol. Would be hilarious if the GOP manages to sh*t the bed here too.


Trump will be bragging about how the Democratic party is now 0-6 in congressional races, even if Saccone wins by 1 point in a R+11 district.
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Holmes
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« Reply #235 on: January 28, 2018, 01:19:25 am »

Saccone is such an awful candidate lol. Would be hilarious if the GOP manages to sh*t the bed here too.


Trump will be bragging about how the Democratic party is now 0-6 in congressional races, even if Saccone wins by 1 point in a R+11 district.

Interesting how he doesn't include CA-34.
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Contest of Truth: Science Beats Religion
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« Reply #236 on: January 28, 2018, 08:48:51 am »

Saccone is such an awful candidate lol. Would be hilarious if the GOP manages to sh*t the bed here too.


Trump will be bragging about how the Democratic party is now 0-6 in congressional races, even if Saccone wins by 1 point in a R+11 district.

Interesting how he doesn't include CA-34.

Probably because top 2 all Democratic Party races do not count to him?
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ERM64man
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« Reply #237 on: January 28, 2018, 01:27:34 pm »

Democrats won AL-SEN.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #238 on: January 28, 2018, 02:03:49 pm »


Well, Saccone has the advantage of not being a kiddie diddler.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #239 on: January 28, 2018, 03:32:39 pm »


Well, Saccone has the advantage of not being a kiddie diddler.
Don't speak too soon.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #240 on: January 29, 2018, 11:41:19 am »

I have a feeling this will become the most expensive House race in history...
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Holmes
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« Reply #241 on: January 29, 2018, 11:48:09 am »

I have a feeling this will become the most expensive House race in history...

GA-06 was not even a year ago.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #242 on: January 29, 2018, 02:45:19 pm »
« Edited: January 29, 2018, 02:52:42 pm by MT Treasurer »

I think Lamb wins by 3-5 or something like that. These special elections have been ugly for the GOP so far, and the NRCC doesn’t seem to have its act together.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #243 on: January 29, 2018, 02:47:21 pm »

I have a feeling this will become the most expensive House race in history...

GA-06 was not even a year ago.

Even Atlas has a goldfish attention span. Now imagine the general public, half of which doesn't even vote. lol

People have already stopped caring about the government shutdown, which Atlas assured me voters would care deeply about and base their voting decisions on in 2018 and even 2020.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #244 on: January 29, 2018, 09:29:05 pm »

I have a feeling this will become the most expensive House race in history...

GA-06 was not even a year ago.

Even Atlas has a goldfish attention span. Now imagine the general public, half of which doesn't even vote. lol

People have already stopped caring about the government shutdown, which Atlas assured me voters would care deeply about and base their voting decisions on in 2018 and even 2020.
If people cared deeply about government shutdowns, Democrats would have retaken Congress in 1996 and would have kept the Senate/retaken the House in 2014.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #245 on: January 29, 2018, 09:29:56 pm »
« Edited: January 29, 2018, 10:17:48 pm by libertpaulian »

BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?
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DTC
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« Reply #246 on: January 29, 2018, 10:09:08 pm »

BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favor to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?


Possibly. But Toomey is probably Safe if democrats win in 2020 (unless there's a realignment of sorts), and probably screwed if Trump wins in 2020.
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Mondale
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« Reply #247 on: January 29, 2018, 10:18:28 pm »

BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favor to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?


No way Toomey would win against Lamb. Toomey will be an old man by then. His face already looks like a waterlogged costume stiched at gunpoint
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DTC
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« Reply #248 on: January 29, 2018, 10:21:43 pm »

BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favor to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?


No way Toomey would win against Lamb. Toomey will be an old man by then. His face already looks like a waterlogged costume stiched at gunpoint

Toomey can easily win if a democrat is in office, unless the democrat is very popular or Toomey does something particularly stupid besides just be far right.
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henster
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« Reply #249 on: January 29, 2018, 10:23:28 pm »

BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?


No way he gets past Josh Shapiro.
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