Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 24, 2020, 08:15:06 am
News: 2020 Mock/Endorsements for Presidential Primaries are now open.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17 18 19 20 21 ... 104 Print
Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 126319 times)
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #375 on: February 15, 2018, 01:05:51 pm »

Com'on Lamb!!! You can do it!!!!
Logged
PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,125
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #376 on: February 15, 2018, 01:07:42 pm »

At this point, if I had to say who would win, it would be Lamb.
Logged
Hindsight is 2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,880
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #377 on: February 15, 2018, 01:09:31 pm »

Gotta love that we don't have to change the title
Logged
PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,125
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #378 on: February 15, 2018, 01:16:15 pm »

Now we must ask ourselves whether this is Saccone blowing it because let's face it: he's an awful candidate, or it's because Lamb is a super strong candidate. I'm leaning towards it being a little bit of both.

It's pretty obvious that Lamb is no Ossoff.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,179


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #379 on: February 15, 2018, 01:16:22 pm »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.
Logged
PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,125
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #380 on: February 15, 2018, 01:18:57 pm »

This is just showing how godawful Morning Consult is. If Trump has a 46% approval rating in the state, his candidate would be running away with this. It's a southwestern CD for crying out loud. The poll clearly shows a lot of this is a backlash against Trump.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,812
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #381 on: February 15, 2018, 01:28:13 pm »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.
Logged
PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,125
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #382 on: February 15, 2018, 02:04:55 pm »

People like Conor Lamb give me so much hope for our party. I really want him to win.
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,552
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #383 on: February 15, 2018, 02:05:08 pm »

People like Conor Lamb give me so much hope for our party. I really want him to win.
Logged
President Pericles
Pericles
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,898
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #384 on: February 15, 2018, 02:15:16 pm »

Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #385 on: February 15, 2018, 02:24:53 pm »

Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,452


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #386 on: February 15, 2018, 02:31:21 pm »


And Linda Belcher. The New Hope.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,578
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #387 on: February 15, 2018, 02:31:46 pm »

Well...I can actually see Lamb winning by 3 or 4 points. I think Monmouth has been a little off in their recent polling.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,179


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #388 on: February 15, 2018, 03:18:28 pm »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #389 on: February 15, 2018, 03:32:11 pm »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.

I agree
Logged
Malcolm X is Feeling the Bern
jdb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,339
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #390 on: February 15, 2018, 03:49:12 pm »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.

I agree
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,759


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #391 on: February 15, 2018, 05:27:37 pm »

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.
Logged
Hindsight is 2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,880
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #392 on: February 15, 2018, 05:29:16 pm »

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.
On the flip side the DCCC might be staying out on purpose so The GOP can't nationlize the race ala GA-06
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,081


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #393 on: February 15, 2018, 06:07:30 pm »

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.
On the flip side the DCCC might be staying out on purpose so The GOP can't nationlize the race ala GA-06

An idea I've seen floated on Twitter is that the DCCC may be waiting to see what the final PA maps look like in a few days.  They might not want to invest a lot in trying to help Lamb win a seat that he'd be likely to lose in November (or on the flip side, might be an easier gain for the Democrats then).
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,452


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #394 on: February 15, 2018, 06:14:07 pm »

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.

This makes me think internal polling doesn't have the race as close as Monmouth pegged it at. I'm still optimistic, but idk. Trump's approval and the generic ballot in that poll can't exist in the same universe as the generic ballot polling and approval rating trend we're seeing right now. Unless there is an absolutely massive turnout differential.
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,552
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #395 on: February 15, 2018, 08:28:17 pm »

Trump bails

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,125
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #396 on: February 15, 2018, 09:33:51 pm »


Smart. He knows he's going to sink Saccone. His disapproval rating shouldn't be 48% in South Western PA.
Logged
kyc0705
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,419


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #397 on: February 15, 2018, 09:42:26 pm »

I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.

Considering that this is Atlas, your second sentence seems a tad redundant.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,268
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #398 on: February 15, 2018, 09:56:53 pm »

Saccone would be one of the better Republicans in congress, it would be tolerable.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,268
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #399 on: February 15, 2018, 10:00:17 pm »

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17 18 19 20 21 ... 104 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC