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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 126413 times)
Ses
jk2020
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« Reply #525 on: February 26, 2018, 02:26:22 am »

For the gazilionth time: respect us who have limo on ignore and stop quoting him.

Thanks.

He actually posted the ad tho...
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #526 on: February 26, 2018, 03:14:55 am »

For the gazilionth time: respect us who have limo on ignore and stop quoting him.

Thanks.

He actually posted the ad tho...

You can quote the ad without the editorializing like many other posters do.
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Badger
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« Reply #527 on: February 27, 2018, 12:31:08 am »


Thanks Richard.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #528 on: February 27, 2018, 01:25:02 pm »

INBOX: Conor Lamb has raised a whopping $3.2 million since January.  It's why he's been able to be competitive with the outside GOP ad buys -- even with the DCCC pulling out of the race.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/968549891835400192
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #529 on: February 27, 2018, 01:26:41 pm »

Is it just me or does anyone else think that this special election should be called off ?

Pretty weird to have the winner take the seat for a few months and then a new GE with new borders ...
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #530 on: February 27, 2018, 01:34:55 pm »

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/968553250235568128

And now Cook thinks it's a TOSS UP.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #531 on: February 27, 2018, 01:35:42 pm »

Is it just me or does anyone else think that this special election should be called off ?

Pretty weird to have the winner take the seat for a few months and then a new GE with new borders ...

The winner would represent the district from certification until the new Congress meetings in early January 2019. That's a pretty long time and otherwise the seat would be vacant. The special election to replace Gabby Giffords took place in June 2012 just before a redistricting cycle.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #532 on: February 27, 2018, 03:21:16 pm »


I disagree with them about the move, but they got a nice editorial here:

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/pennsylvania-house/pa-18-special-election-moves-lean-republican-toss
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KingSweden
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« Reply #533 on: February 27, 2018, 04:36:16 pm »

You canít jam the Lamb

(Sorry)
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #534 on: February 27, 2018, 04:57:15 pm »

Saccone is probably narrowly favored to win, but this special doesn't feel that important. There's not going to be any substantive impact if the Democratic minority grows by one before November, and Lamb will be running in PA-17 regardless of whether he wins this race.
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Chromium R Florida
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« Reply #535 on: February 27, 2018, 07:58:13 pm »

I feel like this is a race where Saccone will win by 3 in the end, but my gut predictions have consistently underestimated Dems this year. Based on that, I'm thinking Lamb by a similar margin.
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Mondale
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« Reply #536 on: February 27, 2018, 08:25:36 pm »

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Badger
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« Reply #537 on: February 28, 2018, 02:51:50 am »

INBOX: Conor Lamb has raised a whopping $3.2 million since January.  It's why he's been able to be competitive with the outside GOP ad buys -- even with the DCCC pulling out of the race.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/968549891835400192

Why on Earth would the D Triple C pull out? Is there a single special election race they haven't been dead wrong in terms of when to throw down and when the pool off. They go gangbusters for ossoff, but stay on the periphery for those razor-thin specials in South Carolina and Kansas that could have flipped. The examples go on and on.

Gives me some hope as a republican that we won't keep the house. So it depresses me in that I hate Ryan
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #538 on: February 28, 2018, 02:58:54 am »

INBOX: Conor Lamb has raised a whopping $3.2 million since January.  It's why he's been able to be competitive with the outside GOP ad buys -- even with the DCCC pulling out of the race.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/968549891835400192

Why on Earth would the D Triple C pull out?

Like with Alabama, the less people hear about national Democrats, the better for Lamb.
Maybe they have some under-the-radar PAC spending money, again like in Alabama.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #539 on: February 28, 2018, 11:36:48 pm »

If Saccone wins the special, would he win the new PA-14 regular election?
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Malcolm X is Feeling the Bern
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« Reply #540 on: March 01, 2018, 07:49:38 am »

If Saccone wins the special, would he win the new PA-14 regular election?

As long as Brandon Neumann doesnít run (and he wonít).  The real danger for Saccone is the Republican primary imo.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #541 on: March 01, 2018, 11:20:30 am »

Harry Entin: Five reasons Conor Lamb can win

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/969242495996563456?s=21

Two reasons I am more optimistic on this race than I have been all winter, even though Saccone is still favored:

1. We are two weeks away, and this race has not received national attention like GA-6. We political geeks know about it, but it hasn't really broken through to national news. I believe this means that disconnected Republican voters can stay dormant unlike in GA-6.

2. I only recently picked up on how much this is a suburban vs. rural district and has a relatively high rate of college educated voters.

The polls still favor Saccone, but I don't rule out a Lamb win.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #542 on: March 01, 2018, 01:13:49 pm »

Harry Entin: Five reasons Conor Lamb can win

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/969242495996563456?s=21

Two reasons I am more optimistic on this race than I have been all winter, even though Saccone is still favored:

1. We are two weeks away, and this race has not received national attention like GA-6. We political geeks know about it, but it hasn't really broken through to national news. I believe this means that disconnected Republican voters can stay dormant unlike in GA-6.

2. I only recently picked up on how much this is a suburban vs. rural district and has a relatively high rate of college educated voters.

The polls still favor Saccone, but I don't rule out a Lamb win.

I'm actually pretty optimistic on Lamb too. He's definitely had a better campaign than Saccone.

That probably means Lamb loses, though Smiley
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #543 on: March 01, 2018, 01:24:44 pm »

I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #544 on: March 01, 2018, 02:32:54 pm »

Trump might cancel his visit.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #545 on: March 01, 2018, 03:01:26 pm »

I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look



Where's this photo from?
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Holmes
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« Reply #546 on: March 01, 2018, 03:52:49 pm »


I thought he already did.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #547 on: March 01, 2018, 03:54:05 pm »

Obviously, Dems don't have the Casey or Wolf coattails to run on until Nov, but Dems will be successful in PA in Nov across the board.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #548 on: March 01, 2018, 06:53:04 pm »


He was going to visit twice. He canceled the one that was supposed to be on 2/21, officially because of the Florida shooting, but obviously there was a deeper real reasoning. This is talking about the visit currently planned for 3/10.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #549 on: March 01, 2018, 08:43:05 pm »

Anyone else feel like Lamb has massive momentum right now? https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/in-tight-pennsylvania-race-gop-struggles-to-land-a-blow-against-conor-lamb/2018/03/01/4f7678e2-1d5f-11e8-ae5a-16e60e4605f3_story.html?utm_term=.79368ea72e23
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