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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 126314 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #675 on: March 05, 2018, 05:03:32 pm »

Lamb is obviously favored, but the more national attention this race draws, the more likely a Saccone victory becomes. Still, I think Lamb wins by 2.

Bummer for Lamb that PA is one of the worst states for early voting.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #676 on: March 05, 2018, 05:06:52 pm »

Predictit favors Lamb with 58% and has Saccone at 46%.

Obviously a great barometer, especially giving Ossoff in the 70s at one point. Predictit is garbage, learn it quick. I would not be too suprised by a Lamb win, but I think this is still Saccone's race to lose. Going into this, I was at about Lean R, Saccone wins 53-45, now I am thinking tilt R with Saccone pulling out 51-47.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #677 on: March 05, 2018, 05:11:53 pm »

I assume other than the primaries this will be our last electoral test until the midterms.


There is AZ-08 and the jungle primaries in California.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #678 on: March 05, 2018, 05:15:07 pm »

I assume other than the primaries this will be our last electoral test until the midterms.


There is AZ-08 and the jungle primaries in California.

Also the Ohio race.
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Badger
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« Reply #679 on: March 05, 2018, 05:29:39 pm »

Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

Well, I assume like most phone banks that you are targeting at least undecided to soft democratic voters, or possibly even just get out the vote for historically reliable Democrat votes. Even if it's the former, you should expect a significant lamb advantage, as not too many reliable let alone hardcore Republican voters are going to slip into your call list ( with inevitable exceptions of course).
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #680 on: March 05, 2018, 05:41:01 pm »
« Edited: March 05, 2018, 05:49:08 pm by PittsburghSteel »

I'm not getting my hopes up. Still expect a small Saccone victory, especially if Trump's approval keeps edging up as it is now.

It's. Not. "Edging". UP.

Even when it improved to the mid 40s after the tax bill passed the Republicans still lost special elections, and saw significant swings against their candidates.

Limo, we all know you're a closet Republican and you're still questioning yourself, but this trolling is still really pathetic.
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VPH
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« Reply #681 on: March 05, 2018, 05:42:27 pm »

I'm not getting my hopes up. Still expect a small Saccone victory, especially if Trump's approval keeps edging up as it is now.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #682 on: March 05, 2018, 05:47:33 pm »

Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

Well, I assume like most phone banks that you are targeting at least undecided to soft democratic voters, or possibly even just get out the vote for historically reliable Democrat votes. Even if it's the former, you should expect a significant lamb advantage, as not too many reliable let alone hardcore Republican voters are going to slip into your call list ( with inevitable exceptions of course).

It was a random HubDialer, so you're incorrect.
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DTC
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« Reply #683 on: March 05, 2018, 05:49:32 pm »

What exactly are you saying/asking on these calls?
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #684 on: March 05, 2018, 06:08:03 pm »

I'm phonebanking right now but nobody is answering.
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King Lear
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« Reply #685 on: March 05, 2018, 07:33:05 pm »

In light of recent polling showing Lamb ahead, I've changed my rating for this race to Lean Republican. However, I still believe Saccone will pull it off in the end, albeit, by a much smaller margin then I originally thought.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #686 on: March 05, 2018, 08:41:29 pm »

Guy on r/TheDonald says Saccone internals show Saccone +10: https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/81q58w/pa18_going_back_in_the_right_direction_in_latest/dv8c005/
Therefore, race is Safe R now.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #687 on: March 05, 2018, 08:46:01 pm »


You dropped this -> /s
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #688 on: March 05, 2018, 09:46:51 pm »


You suck at trolling.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #689 on: March 05, 2018, 09:47:37 pm »

Delete your account.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #690 on: March 05, 2018, 09:48:41 pm »

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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #691 on: March 05, 2018, 09:50:11 pm »

I unenthusiastically want Lamb to win.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #692 on: March 05, 2018, 09:55:51 pm »

I honestly think Biden's rally is going to pretty much lock in Lamb's victory. Of course, that may be an exaggeration, but Joe is very smart to help out Conor here. It scores both of them a few points.
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Badger
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« Reply #693 on: March 05, 2018, 10:36:02 pm »

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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #694 on: March 05, 2018, 10:43:02 pm »

Sarcasm people. Sarcasm.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #695 on: March 05, 2018, 11:02:46 pm »

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smoltchanov
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« Reply #696 on: March 06, 2018, 03:17:51 am »

Change my early prediction (Saccone by single digits) to pure tossup.
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Xing
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« Reply #697 on: March 06, 2018, 03:29:07 am »

Well, I'd like to think that I've learned lessons from both GA-06 and AL-SEN. This race is legitimately looking like a Toss-Up, and if more polls show Lamb ahead, I probably will give him the edge. However, no one should be counting Saccone out, either. Watch this thread get derailed into pandemonium if the Gravis poll shows Saccone up by 1 or 2.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #698 on: March 06, 2018, 10:14:00 am »

The momentum seems to be with Lamb... but this is a total Tossup. Iíll say Lamb+1, but I have little confidence in this prediction
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #699 on: March 06, 2018, 10:16:58 am »

The momentum seems to be with Lamb... but this is a total Tossup. Iíll say Lamb+1, but I have little confidence in this prediction

By the way,
Am I the only one who doesn't really care about this special election? I mean, no matter the result Lamb will run in Rothfus' district.
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