Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 28, 2020, 08:08:49 am
News: 2020 U.S. Senate Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 24 25 26 27 28 [29] 30 31 32 33 34 ... 104 Print
Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 126494 times)
Gass3268
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,196
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #700 on: March 06, 2018, 10:21:08 am »

The momentum seems to be with Lamb... but this is a total Tossup. I’ll say Lamb+1, but I have little confidence in this prediction

By the way,
Am I the only one who doesn't really care about this special election? I mean, no matter the result Lamb will run in Rothfus' district.

I imagine there would be a slight advantage for Lamb taking on Rothfus as a fellow incumbent. Plus it would probably help push some more Congressional Republicans to retirement.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,759


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #701 on: March 06, 2018, 01:06:35 pm »

The momentum seems to be with Lamb... but this is a total Tossup. I’ll say Lamb+1, but I have little confidence in this prediction

By the way,
Am I the only one who doesn't really care about this special election? I mean, no matter the result Lamb will run in Rothfus' district.

I imagine there would be a slight advantage for Lamb taking on Rothfus as a fellow incumbent. Plus it would probably help push some more Congressional Republicans to retirement.

Something like this could have HUGE impacts on several other races like influencing Rick Scott on whether he should run.
Logged
DTC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,273


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #702 on: March 06, 2018, 01:15:11 pm »

The momentum seems to be with Lamb... but this is a total Tossup. I’ll say Lamb+1, but I have little confidence in this prediction

By the way,
Am I the only one who doesn't really care about this special election? I mean, no matter the result Lamb will run in Rothfus' district.

I imagine there would be a slight advantage for Lamb taking on Rothfus as a fellow incumbent. Plus it would probably help push some more Congressional Republicans to retirement.

Something like this could have HUGE impacts on several other races like influencing Rick Scott on whether he should run.

Yeah. Also could impact fundraising.
Logged
1980s Boomer with Political PTSD
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,405
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #703 on: March 06, 2018, 04:30:18 pm »

Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

Well, I assume like most phone banks that you are targeting at least undecided to soft democratic voters, or possibly even just get out the vote for historically reliable Democrat votes. Even if it's the former, you should expect a significant lamb advantage, as not too many reliable let alone hardcore Republican voters are going to slip into your call list ( with inevitable exceptions of course).

It was a random HubDialer, so you're incorrect.

Even HubDialer/predictive dialing campaigns are usually configured to target a specific subset of the voting populace - in large quantities, no less, so that volunteers are constantly being placed on the phone with live voters rather than inefficiently dialing numbers manually. For instance, a campaign might target all of the solid Democratic voters in a county who have between a 40-70% chance of voting in an election.

Among whichever groups the predictive dialer is targeting, the person on the other end should be random, but I'd be highly doubtful (and skeptical of) any campaign just throwing any and all voters into HubDialer. That would be woefully inefficient. From the sound of your responses, you were likely being connected with undecided voters and/or soft supporters of both campaigns.
Logged
PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,143
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #704 on: March 06, 2018, 04:46:58 pm »

Biden/Lamb rally at Robert Morris University at 5:00.
Logged
PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,143
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #705 on: March 06, 2018, 05:00:38 pm »

This explains what I have been seeing.

@spicyfoodguy
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Republicans throughout this campaign have been pretty much just throwing sh**t in every direction and seeing what sticks.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,190


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #706 on: March 06, 2018, 05:13:23 pm »

The NRCC’s closing argument for Saccone. Definitely the work of a campaign confident of victory.


https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/971140861089198081?s=21
Logged
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,037


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #707 on: March 06, 2018, 05:19:29 pm »

The NRCC’s closing argument for Saccone. Definitely the work of a campaign confident of victory.


https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/971140861089198081?s=21
Let's be real, this district's GOP voters have never voted on economics outside of tariff related issues. This is the wisest choice by the NRCC.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,190


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #708 on: March 06, 2018, 05:21:03 pm »

The NRCC’s closing argument for Saccone. Definitely the work of a campaign confident of victory.


https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/971140861089198081?s=21
Let's be real, this district's GOP voters have never voted on economics outside of tariff related issues. This is the wisest choice by the NRCC.

There's culture war, and then there's absolute desperation.
Logged
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,037


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #709 on: March 06, 2018, 05:24:29 pm »


There's culture war, and then there's absolute desperation.
The Dems have been anti-cop (a union-heavy lean D demographic before) and soft on crime since about 7 years ago. It alienates white working class much more than other demographics. It's not so much desperation, but an unforced error on the Dems' side.
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,569
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #710 on: March 06, 2018, 05:27:20 pm »

The NRCC’s closing argument for Saccone. Definitely the work of a campaign confident of victory.


https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/971140861089198081?s=21

Rofl
Logged
Hindsight is 2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,915
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #711 on: March 06, 2018, 05:29:04 pm »
« Edited: March 06, 2018, 05:49:21 pm by Hindsight is 2020 »


There's culture war, and then there's absolute desperation.
The Dems have been anti-cop (a union-heavy lean D demographic before) and soft on crime since about 7 years ago. It alienates white working class much more than other demographics. It's not so much desperation, but an unforced error on the Dems' side.
With all due respect f**k off with that bullsh*t
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,926
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #712 on: March 06, 2018, 05:31:50 pm »

It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.
Logged
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,037


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #713 on: March 06, 2018, 05:32:55 pm »

It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.
True, but optics are everything in American Politics. There's a way to go about it without alienating anyone.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,812
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #714 on: March 06, 2018, 05:36:33 pm »

It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.
True, but optics are everything in American Politics. There's a way to go about it without alienating anyone.

Lamb is a former prosecutor. And your party is openly attacking the FBI for doing its job.
Troll.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,926
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #715 on: March 06, 2018, 05:39:50 pm »

It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.
True, but optics are everything in American Politics. There's a way to go about it without alienating anyone.

Keep in mind that as far as activism goes, that isn't something the party itself can just tweak until it gets it right. Those are real people out there, many of whom constantly see a side of the criminal justice system that just doesn't react the same way to vast swathes of white people. They don't really care about optics, even if maybe they should.

Also let's remember that many conservatives don't even believe that the criminal justice is unfair to PoC, or they substantially marginalize any perceived shortcomings. You can see this not only from the voters themselves but the politicians who represent them, as well as polls on relevant issues.

edit: as per Lyndon's comments, it does raise a good point - Republicans seem to be pro-police only up to the point where it doesn't threaten their political power or their Dear Leader. But once that happens, they seem to have no problem going full anti-FBI, which is funny because they seemed to pride themselves on being the guardians of the FBI for decades prior  Grumpy
Logged
DTC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,273


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #716 on: March 06, 2018, 05:43:59 pm »

It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.
True, but optics are everything in American Politics. There's a way to go about it without alienating anyone.

Keep in mind that as far as activism goes, that isn't something the party itself can just tweak until it gets it right. Those are real people out there, many of whom constantly see a side of the criminal justice system that just doesn't react the same way to vast swathes of white people. They don't really care about optics, even if maybe they should.

Also let's remember that many conservatives don't even believe that the criminal justice is unfair to PoC, or they substantially marginalize any perceived shortcomings. You can see this not only from the voters themselves but the politicians who represent them, as well as polls on relevant issues.

edit: as per Lyndon's comments, it does raise a good point - Republicans seem to be pro-police only up to the point where it doesn't threaten their political power or their Dear Leader. But once that happens, they seem to have no problem going full anti-FBI, which is funny because they seemed to pride themselves on being the guardians of the FBI for decades prior  Grumpy

Hofoid constantly goes on about democrats talk too much about PoC, talks about how miniorities will always vote dem anyways (even though Hillary doing as well among blacks as Obama did would have given her a 328 electoral college victory), and constantly seems to disregard miniority struggles. I wouldn't take their posts about race particularly seriously.

Most progressives on this forum are generally good about combining economic justice and social justice, but this new user seems to barely care about social justice because we need to focus on muh "WWC" or something.
Logged
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,037


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #717 on: March 06, 2018, 05:56:19 pm »

It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.
True, but optics are everything in American Politics. There's a way to go about it without alienating anyone.

Keep in mind that as far as activism goes, that isn't something the party itself can just tweak until it gets it right. Those are real people out there, many of whom constantly see a side of the criminal justice system that just doesn't react the same way to vast swathes of white people. They don't really care about optics, even if maybe they should.

Also let's remember that many conservatives don't even believe that the criminal justice is unfair to PoC, or they substantially marginalize any perceived shortcomings. You can see this not only from the voters themselves but the politicians who represent them, as well as polls on relevant issues.

edit: as per Lyndon's comments, it does raise a good point - Republicans seem to be pro-police only up to the point where it doesn't threaten their political power or their Dear Leader. But once that happens, they seem to have no problem going full anti-FBI, which is funny because they seemed to pride themselves on being the guardians of the FBI for decades prior  Grumpy

Hofoid constantly goes on about democrats talk too much about PoC, talks about how miniorities will always vote dem anyways (even though Hillary doing as well among blacks as Obama did would have given her a 328 electoral college victory), and constantly seems to disregard miniority struggles. I wouldn't take their posts about race particularly seriously.

Most progressives on this forum are generally good about combining economic justice and social justice, but this new user seems to barely care about social justice because we need to focus on muh "WWC" or something.

So, being concerned about lives (many of whom are blacks and other ethnic minorities) being taken by gang violence and other criminal activities is now considered "disregarding minority struggles". Got it.
Logged
PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,143
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #718 on: March 06, 2018, 06:02:43 pm »

Yeah, the GOP is really showing their desperation.


Btw, Gravis will be releasing their poll tomorrow morning.
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,473


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #719 on: March 06, 2018, 07:42:44 pm »

The NRCC’s closing argument for Saccone. Definitely the work of a campaign confident of victory.


https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/971140861089198081?s=21

Regardless of whether or not it will move the needle in this race, this ad looks like it could be foreshadowing the GOP's new talking points on guns as the NRA grows increasingly toxic - attacking illegal gun sales on the streets of the big liberal cities. Allows them to pass a bogus, likely race-baiting law addressing it that Dems will probably vote against, and lets them say that they are the party of "strong gun control."
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,710
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #720 on: March 07, 2018, 01:19:51 am »

I'm phonebanking right now but nobody is answering.

Limo Lib in the words the Great and Late Janis Joplin:

"Mercedes Benz"

Oh Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?
My friends all drive Porsches, I must make amends.
Worked hard all my lifetime, no help from my friends,
So Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?

Oh Lord, won't you buy me a color TV ?
Dialing For Dollars is trying to find me.
I wait for delivery each day until three,
So oh Lord, won't you buy me a color TV ?

Oh Lord, won't you buy me a night on the town ?
I'm counting on you, Lord, please don't let me down.
Prove that you love me and buy the next round,
Oh Lord, won't you buy me a night on the town ?

Everybody!
Oh Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?
My friends all drive Porsches, I must make amends,
Worked hard all my lifetime, no help from my friends,
So oh Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?


Are you calling at Supper Time perchance?

Two Grandparents (Now deceased) from PA, and they would never answer the phone during certain times....

SW PA CD-18 has an extremely high percentage of older voters where certain family traditions are slightly different than that of many large Metro Areas elsewhere, and not everyone is glued to a cellphone to their hip.

Plus I suspect many of these voters are sick and tired of getting called multiple times a week, and will just do their own thing without any help from polling organizations and the mass media....

Direct Mail and Door to Door contact from locals and friends and neighbors are actually much more effective in districts like this than phone banking (Although I appreciate your time and effort sir).

This is one of those districts where I suspect traditional polling techniques will give us little data from the bird entrails from that arcane science known only to the chosen few.

Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,926
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #721 on: March 07, 2018, 01:44:12 am »

A LimoLiberal phone-banking story

Voter: Hello?
LimoLiberal: Good evening ma'm, do you have a moment to talk about the ongoing Congressional special election and why Lamb is the best candidate for your district?
Voter: Well, sure, for a minute anyway.
LimoLiberal: Lamb has only been leading in one poll, so I doubt he can win.
Voter: Wait, what?
LimoLiberal: Especially after the Texas primary completely blew up the wave narrative, Saccone is unfortunately going to win.
Voter: Aren't you supposed to be convincing me to vote for Lamb?
LimoLiberal: I am. Just because I don't believe Democrats are getting a wave in 2018 doesn't mean I'm not trying to convince you to vote for Lamb.
Voter: Ok, I have to go. Take care, or something...
LimoLiberal: Alright, just FYI though, tomorrow morning, Gravis is going to release a poll showing a total collapse for Lamb, but it's important you go to vote for him.

hangs up

Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,611
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #722 on: March 07, 2018, 02:33:29 am »

A LimoLiberal phone-banking story

Voter: Hello?
LimoLiberal: Good evening ma'm, do you have a moment to talk about the ongoing Congressional special election and why Lamb is the best candidate for your district?
Voter: Well, sure, for a minute anyway.
LimoLiberal: Lamb has only been leading in one poll, so I doubt he can win.
Voter: Wait, what?
LimoLiberal: Especially after the Texas primary completely blew up the wave narrative, Saccone is unfortunately going to win.
Voter: Aren't you supposed to be convincing me to vote for Lamb?
LimoLiberal: I am. Just because I don't believe Democrats are getting a wave in 2018 doesn't mean I'm not trying to convince you to vote for Lamb.
Voter: Ok, I have to go. Take care, or something...
LimoLiberal: Alright, just FYI though, tomorrow morning, Gravis is going to release a poll showing a total collapse for Lamb, but it's important you go to vote for him.

hangs up



Of course, there may be a massive blizzard that day, so you may not even want to leave the house.
Logged
Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,200
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #723 on: March 07, 2018, 02:34:22 am »

A LimoLiberal phone-banking story

Voter: Hello?
LimoLiberal: Good evening ma'm, do you have a moment to talk about the ongoing Congressional special election and why Lamb is the best candidate for your district?
Voter: Well, sure, for a minute anyway.
LimoLiberal: Lamb has only been leading in one poll, so I doubt he can win.
Voter: Wait, what?
LimoLiberal: Especially after the Texas primary completely blew up the wave narrative, Saccone is unfortunately going to win.
Voter: Aren't you supposed to be convincing me to vote for Lamb?
LimoLiberal: I am. Just because I don't believe Democrats are getting a wave in 2018 doesn't mean I'm not trying to convince you to vote for Lamb.
Voter: Ok, I have to go. Take care, or something...
LimoLiberal: Alright, just FYI though, tomorrow morning, Gravis is going to release a poll showing a total collapse for Lamb, but it's important you go to vote for him.

hangs up



Of course, there may be a massive blizzard that day, so you may not even want to leave the house.
Not to mention lots of rain.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,759


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #724 on: March 07, 2018, 02:48:07 am »

It sucks expectations have gotten so high that not winning an R+11 seat will obviously spark 'Dems r doomed' & 'GOP surge' stories much like GA-06. A few weeks ago I would've been elated if Lamb got within 10 now I'd be dissapointed/demoralized if he lost.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 24 25 26 27 28 [29] 30 31 32 33 34 ... 104 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC