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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 126315 times)
Scott 🤡🌏
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« Reply #725 on: March 07, 2018, 03:34:43 am »

A LimoLiberal phone-banking story

Voter: Hello?
LimoLiberal: Good evening ma'm, do you have a moment to talk about the ongoing Congressional special election and why Lamb is the best candidate for your district?
Voter: Well, sure, for a minute anyway.
LimoLiberal: Lamb has only been leading in one poll, so I doubt he can win.
Voter: Wait, what?
LimoLiberal: Especially after the Texas primary completely blew up the wave narrative, Saccone is unfortunately going to win.
Voter: Aren't you supposed to be convincing me to vote for Lamb?
LimoLiberal: I am. Just because I don't believe Democrats are getting a wave in 2018 doesn't mean I'm not trying to convince you to vote for Lamb.
Voter: Ok, I have to go. Take care, or something...
LimoLiberal: Alright, just FYI though, tomorrow morning, Gravis is going to release a poll showing a total collapse for Lamb, but it's important you go to vote for him.

hangs up

lmao Purple heart
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kph14
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« Reply #726 on: March 07, 2018, 09:28:29 am »

Gravis (03/01-03/05)
Saccone 45
Lamb 42 (+2)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_PA_18_March_7th_2018.pdf
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DemocraticKing
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« Reply #727 on: March 07, 2018, 09:37:56 am »


Still a tossup with hints of a Lamb advantage maybe. Down 3 points in Gravis, up 1 in Emerson.

Lamb losing by three bodes very well for Democrats in 2018 btw, including a PA-17 Lamb. Him winning would be nice of course.
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Arch
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« Reply #728 on: March 07, 2018, 09:38:59 am »


The closer to the election day, the more advantage Lamb gains. This has been consistent for a while now, and there's still a bit to go.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #729 on: March 07, 2018, 09:42:35 am »

Constistant with toss-up but Lamb gaining momentum
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #730 on: March 07, 2018, 10:18:16 am »

https://www.axios.com/when-will-trump-start-his-trade-war-tariffs-b9fdefad-4cd8-4cdf-b013-72c37e27500e.html

Trump wants to start a trade war to win the PA18 special.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #731 on: March 07, 2018, 10:24:55 am »

This is shaping up to be a narrow Lamb victory. All three polls Gravis has released has shown Saccone consistently at 45-46%, but Lamb has been gaining. Undecideds are going to break for Conor Lamb.
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DemocraticKing
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« Reply #732 on: March 07, 2018, 10:37:36 am »

Gravis January 3-5 - Saccone- 46% l Lamb- 34% l 20% Undecided

Gravis February 13-15 - Saccone- 45% l Lamb- 40% l 15% Undecided

Gravis March 1-5- Saccone- 45% l Lamb- 42% l 13% Undecided

We can see a clear trend here, Lamb has been taking the lion's share of the undecideds, and Saccone looks stuck at 45%. Another key note, none of these polls have included the Libertarian, who could pull away Saccone votes.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #733 on: March 07, 2018, 10:43:15 am »

If these polls are correctly showing the direction in which undecideds are breaking, then Lamb should win narrowly.


Btw, 18-29 year olds is Lamb's strongest group. I have no reason to believe the "most conservative generation in history" bs
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KingSweden
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« Reply #734 on: March 07, 2018, 10:55:49 am »

A LimoLiberal phone-banking story

Voter: Hello?
LimoLiberal: Good evening ma'm, do you have a moment to talk about the ongoing Congressional special election and why Lamb is the best candidate for your district?
Voter: Well, sure, for a minute anyway.
LimoLiberal: Lamb has only been leading in one poll, so I doubt he can win.
Voter: Wait, what?
LimoLiberal: Especially after the Texas primary completely blew up the wave narrative, Saccone is unfortunately going to win.
Voter: Aren't you supposed to be convincing me to vote for Lamb?
LimoLiberal: I am. Just because I don't believe Democrats are getting a wave in 2018 doesn't mean I'm not trying to convince you to vote for Lamb.
Voter: Ok, I have to go. Take care, or something...
LimoLiberal: Alright, just FYI though, tomorrow morning, Gravis is going to release a poll showing a total collapse for Lamb, but it's important you go to vote for him.

hangs up



Virginia you are truly a national treasure.

Anyways we have each candidate +3 each in a crappy poll. Iím comfortable calling this a pure Tossup. Lambís got the Big Mo though.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #735 on: March 07, 2018, 11:04:02 am »

I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.
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« Reply #736 on: March 07, 2018, 12:35:26 pm »

I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.
Be sure to warn everyone of the rain in Pittsburgh.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #737 on: March 07, 2018, 02:46:53 pm »

I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.

So I see you've given up even attempting to troll.

Mods, please nuke.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #738 on: March 07, 2018, 02:47:59 pm »

Wait, why is Limo phone banking in SW Pennsylvania?
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #739 on: March 07, 2018, 02:48:27 pm »

I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.

So I see you've given up even attempting to troll.

Mods, please nuke.

Do people understand what a joke is? For gods sake, I literally copied Virginia's post and added some colors and characters.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #740 on: March 07, 2018, 02:49:08 pm »

Wait, why is Limo phone banking in SW Pennsylvania?

There's a hubdialer.com link to phonebank for Lamb that anyone can access.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #741 on: March 07, 2018, 02:51:14 pm »
« Edited: March 07, 2018, 03:05:20 pm by ProgressiveCanadian »

I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.

So I see you've given up even attempting to troll.

Mods, please nuke.

Do people understand what a joke is? For gods sake, I literally copied Virginia's post and added some colors and characters.
So you think you're special now?
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #742 on: March 07, 2018, 02:51:55 pm »

I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.

So I see you've given up even attempting to troll.

Mods, please nuke.

Do people understand what a joke is? For gods sake, I literally copied Virginia's post and added some colors and characters.
So you think you're special now?

What?
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PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #743 on: March 07, 2018, 02:53:22 pm »
« Edited: March 07, 2018, 03:33:38 pm by PittsburghSteel »

Limo, there have been times when I seriously thought you were that Scott Presler guy.
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Holmes
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« Reply #744 on: March 07, 2018, 02:55:07 pm »

I got the joke.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #745 on: March 07, 2018, 04:17:45 pm »


That's all I took from it
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #746 on: March 07, 2018, 08:05:44 pm »

It sucks expectations have gotten so high that not winning an R+11 seat will obviously spark 'Dems r doomed' & 'GOP surge' stories much like GA-06. A few weeks ago I would've been elated if Lamb got within 10 now I'd be dissapointed/demoralized if he lost.
It's worse if Lamb wins, because then the news media will jump on it as proof that a D wave is coming, despite the fact that it's only one election.  Most of the elections that have happened since 2016 had too many extenuating circumstances to be seen as reliable indicators of what may happen in November.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #747 on: March 07, 2018, 09:03:51 pm »

It sucks expectations have gotten so high that not winning an R+11 seat will obviously spark 'Dems r doomed' & 'GOP surge' stories much like GA-06. A few weeks ago I would've been elated if Lamb got within 10 now I'd be dissapointed/demoralized if he lost.
It's worse if Lamb wins, because then the news media will jump on it as proof that a D wave is coming, despite the fact that it's only one election.  Most of the elections that have happened since 2016 had too many extenuating circumstances to be seen as reliable indicators of what may happen in November.

lmoa
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #748 on: March 07, 2018, 09:53:09 pm »

This politico article is yummy -> https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/republicans-pennsylvania-special-election-445221

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President Pericles
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« Reply #749 on: March 07, 2018, 09:54:03 pm »

It sucks expectations have gotten so high that not winning an R+11 seat will obviously spark 'Dems r doomed' & 'GOP surge' stories much like GA-06. A few weeks ago I would've been elated if Lamb got within 10 now I'd be dissapointed/demoralized if he lost.
It's worse if Lamb wins, because then the news media will jump on it as proof that a D wave is coming, despite the fact that it's only one election.  Most of the elections that have happened since 2016 had too many extenuating circumstances to be seen as reliable indicators of what may happen in November.

Together though they are-judging by historical precedent-a reliable indicator of a blue wave.
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