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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 126154 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #750 on: March 07, 2018, 10:33:38 pm »
« edited: March 07, 2018, 10:42:53 pm by Gass3268 »


Republicans have done this for almost every special election over the past 10 years. They are excellent at setting expectations.

Here is an amazing example of this brought forward by Ex Rep. David Jolly.
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You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
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« Reply #751 on: March 07, 2018, 10:54:33 pm »


Republicans have done this for almost every special election over the past 10 years. They are excellent at setting expectations.

Here is an amazing example of this brought forward by Ex Rep. David Jolly.
the "many Republicans think Saccone will ultimately prevail" part makes it so only a Saccone 5%+ win or so would be an overperformnce
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #752 on: March 07, 2018, 11:21:48 pm »

Exactly why I think Lamb is going to pull this off. The momentum is clearly on his side, and the GOP's scattered message in the ads suggests that the internals are showing things they don't like.
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Badger
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« Reply #753 on: March 07, 2018, 11:48:01 pm »

I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.

So I see you've given up even attempting to troll.

Mods, please nuke.

Do people understand what a joke is? For gods sake, I literally copied Virginia's post and added some colors and characters.

If by that you mean you tried jumping on the bandwagon of her exquisitely funny post with some stale failed attempt at me-too humor, yeah, we know.

It just was dull.
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Holmes
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« Reply #754 on: March 09, 2018, 09:37:31 am »

Lamb 48
Saccone 44

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxaLwXNrd7apQzFqMkx6YjdIMU5GVUZ5QVkxMXpFb05RVjhN/view
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #755 on: March 09, 2018, 09:39:30 am »


Holy sh*t...

Is this a real polling firm?
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Holmes
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« Reply #756 on: March 09, 2018, 09:41:58 am »


Yes, it's RABA Research.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #757 on: March 09, 2018, 09:44:56 am »

I still think Saccone wins. I suppose the undecided are heavily conservative.
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kph14
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« Reply #758 on: March 09, 2018, 09:45:11 am »


FWIW, 538 gives them a C+ rating
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kph14
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« Reply #759 on: March 09, 2018, 09:47:14 am »

I still think Saccone wins. I suppose the undecided are heavily conservative.
It's all comes down to turnout. How likely are these unenthusiastic undecided voters to turn out in a special election? I think strong suburban turnout in Allegheny county will put Lamb over the top.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #760 on: March 09, 2018, 09:48:19 am »

I still think Saccone wins. I suppose the undecided are heavily conservative.

The polls are showing Lamb getting the lion's share of undecideds.

No matter the grade, they are also consistently showing Lamb pulling ahead.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #761 on: March 09, 2018, 09:49:10 am »

Well,
I mean I predicted Roy Moore winning as well. My predictions tend to take into account too much the partisan bias of the districts.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #762 on: March 09, 2018, 10:04:50 am »

Anyways, I'm predicting Lamb +1.7

The wave of momentum is crashing alongside Conor.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #763 on: March 09, 2018, 10:07:09 am »

Anyways, I'm predicting Lamb +1.7

The wave of momentum is crashing alongside Conor.

I think the tariffs and amazing economic news might slow that momentum.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #764 on: March 09, 2018, 10:08:04 am »

Yeah, this poll is questionable:

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That being said the % with a college degree in PA-18 is higher than the national average, which is contrary to what folks would imagine with this district, and I imagine folks with a college degree are more like to turnout to vote in a special election.
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« Reply #765 on: March 09, 2018, 10:09:24 am »

Yeah, this poll is questionable:

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That being said the % with a college degree in PA-18 is higher than the national average, which it contrary to what folks would imagine with this district, and I imagine folks with a college degree are more like to turnout to vote in a special election.

That's what I'm thinking. Highly educated voters are already more likely to turn out by default.
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Chromium R Florida
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« Reply #766 on: March 09, 2018, 10:30:02 am »

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.
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« Reply #767 on: March 09, 2018, 10:31:27 am »

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers Smiley. I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #768 on: March 09, 2018, 10:56:05 am »

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers Smiley. I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #769 on: March 09, 2018, 11:02:05 am »

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers Smiley. I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.

Census says 37%, with it being a special election I could see that number get close to around 50%.
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swf541
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« Reply #770 on: March 09, 2018, 11:07:22 am »

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers Smiley. I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.

+1, 100% agreed
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #771 on: March 09, 2018, 11:08:40 am »

When is that Monmouth poll gonna drop?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #772 on: March 09, 2018, 11:14:48 am »


I'm going to guess Monday.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #773 on: March 09, 2018, 11:56:06 am »

RABA isnít great but better than nothing
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Holmes
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« Reply #774 on: March 09, 2018, 12:46:25 pm »

Educated voters? In PA-18? It's more likely than you think.
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