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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 126136 times)
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« Reply #850 on: March 10, 2018, 08:31:52 pm »

Handsome... -barfs-
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Ses
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« Reply #851 on: March 10, 2018, 08:35:29 pm »

Wait, his name is pronounced "Suh-CONE"? I always thought it was "SAH-co-nay".
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #852 on: March 10, 2018, 08:39:08 pm »

Wait, his name is pronounced "Suh-CONE"? I always thought it was "SAH-co-nay".

Sack-cone here :/
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #853 on: March 10, 2018, 09:03:28 pm »

For posterity's sake, I decided to break down the counties for the district in DRA. Under the "current" coalition system, we see that Allegheny is far to the left of the District as a whole, and the Westmoreland and Greene bits are far to the right. Washington is just a little right of the district as a whole. Allegheny is about 20k pop over the Westmoreland+Greene total pop, so they roughly balance out. Under the older number though, the areas south of Allegheny have more affinity for the democrats, and the south Allegheny suburbs comparatively less.



Something to note is that under the 2011 Gerrymander, the Pubs carved out the more 'ancestral' democratic communities along the river borders in the south and stuck them in PA-09, (in exchange for more of Westmoreland) a move that was done out of fear that this region still could vote blue. We will see on Tuesday if these lines succeeded or failed in their attempt to lock out Democrats.
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GO REV GO!
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« Reply #854 on: March 10, 2018, 09:08:52 pm »

So what is the most Democratic part of this district so I can know when to throw in the towel or celebrate ?
[snip]
Awesome info. Thanks! Smiley
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Pollster
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« Reply #855 on: March 10, 2018, 09:14:32 pm »

I tuned in late and might have missed it, but did Trump not mention the new tariffs? That was supposed to be his Hail Mary to Saccone.
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Mondale
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« Reply #856 on: March 10, 2018, 09:16:09 pm »

Trump owned

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Smash255
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« Reply #857 on: March 10, 2018, 09:20:10 pm »

So what is the most Democratic part of this district so I can know when to throw in the towel or celebrate ?

I just started looking through some of the precinct data for the district, but I would imagine Lamb will have to perform extremely well in Allegheny County to offset Republican votes in heavily Republican parts of the district.

My ballpark math is that Allegheny County areas within CD-18 might have accounted for 35% of the district vote in 2016 and went 46-49 Trump.



The Allegheny portion was just under 43% of the 2016 Presidential vote in the district
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #858 on: March 10, 2018, 09:32:29 pm »

Good on Lamb for his rally tomorrow, very good move!
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #859 on: March 10, 2018, 09:36:30 pm »
« Edited: March 10, 2018, 09:44:49 pm by PittsburghSteel »

Lamb is more intelligent than both Saccone and Trump. The rally was a good call.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #860 on: March 10, 2018, 09:46:18 pm »

You guys are starting to persuade me that Lamb may actually win this.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #861 on: March 10, 2018, 09:47:41 pm »

You guys are starting to persuade me that Lamb may actually win this.

He has all the momentum, and the GOP going into panic mode leads me to believe that the internals look good for Conor. If the polls are correct, and Conor truly is getting the lion share of the undecided votes, then I think he's going to win.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #862 on: March 10, 2018, 09:49:59 pm »

There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll. He also gave the heads up on that one recent Monmouth poll that was D+2.

Your reputation as a valuable Atlas poster is riding on this being true! /s Tongue

It's this same guy:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279249.msg5952465#msg5952465

It ended up being the Fox News poll.

So it's actually more on him.

I am praying that you are right. If it's Lamb +4, then I think he's going to win.
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Holmes
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« Reply #863 on: March 10, 2018, 09:58:03 pm »

There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll. He also gave the heads up on that one recent Monmouth poll that was D+2.

Your reputation as a valuable Atlas poster is riding on this being true! /s Tongue

It's this same guy:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279249.msg5952465#msg5952465

It ended up being the Fox News poll.

So it's actually more on him.

I am praying that you are right. If it's Lamb +4, then I think he's going to win.

Smiley
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #864 on: March 11, 2018, 01:11:12 am »

So what is the most Democratic part of this district so I can know when to throw in the towel or celebrate ?

I just started looking through some of the precinct data for the district, but I would imagine Lamb will have to perform extremely well in Allegheny County to offset Republican votes in heavily Republican parts of the district.

My ballpark math is that Allegheny County areas within CD-18 might have accounted for 35% of the district vote in 2016 and went 46-49 Trump.



The Allegheny portion was just under 43% of the 2016 Presidential vote in the district

Thanks Smash255!!!!

Unfortunately, I haven't been able to pull together a comprehensive precinct data set for this district yet, but so was a bit conservative on my estimated numbers for Allegheny County '16 Pres numbers as a % of the total CD vote....

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KingSweden
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« Reply #865 on: March 11, 2018, 10:26:35 am »

You guys are starting to persuade me that Lamb may actually win this.
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Holmes
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« Reply #866 on: March 11, 2018, 10:53:22 am »

Trump should've done his rally in Greene or Washington. That's where Saccone needs to run up the margins.
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Cold War Liberal
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« Reply #867 on: March 11, 2018, 11:42:04 am »

You. Can't. Make. This. Stuff. Up.



Mike Pence was at the Naval Observatory, feeding Marlon Bundo while waiting for Mother to make him dinner, when he broke out in a profuse cold sweat. He couldn't pinpoint why until he turned on the TV and saw that headline in the lower third.
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« Reply #868 on: March 11, 2018, 01:22:45 pm »

This *may* be the end for Lamb...ugh: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/11/pittsburgh-paper-backs-republican-in-house-race-warning-of-impeachment-distraction-if-democrats-win/
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #869 on: March 11, 2018, 01:32:51 pm »


Check out the end of page 34/beginning of 35 for discussion on this paper, if/when lamb loses, it won't be because of this. Apparently, this was one of the papers that was bullish for Trump.
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« Reply #870 on: March 11, 2018, 01:33:27 pm »


You mean like how newspaper endorsements were the end for Trump?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #871 on: March 11, 2018, 01:37:53 pm »


Hmm, I wonder if this paper endorsed Dem control of House in 1994, 1998, 2010, and 2014 out of fear of impeachment of a Dem President.  Somehow I doubt it.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #872 on: March 11, 2018, 01:47:28 pm »

The Post Gazette is notoriously right wing and downright deranged when it comes to unions.
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« Reply #873 on: March 11, 2018, 01:52:16 pm »


Hmm, I wonder if this paper endorsed Dem control of House in 1994, 1998, 2010, and 2014 out of fear of impeachment of a Dem President.  Somehow I doubt it.

Definitely not. This paper was a liberal, though high quality, newspaper since time immemorial. It was only since it was bought out by some right-wing Publishing House in the past couple years that it's turned into a complete rag.

 I can appreciate a good conservative op-ed from legit sources like the Wall Street Journal, but it is really depressing to see the Post-Gazette turn into such a rag.

It might change a few Minds on the margins, but I question the extent. Maybe locals like doctor cynic can tell us whether or not the Post-Gazette truly has much respect left in the region, or if that since then management switch over if it's now widely considered the paper version of Fox News that simply preaches to the converted on their op-ed page.

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« Reply #874 on: March 11, 2018, 01:52:37 pm »


This newspaper endorsement will shift the race approximately 0.02% to Rick Saccone. Nobody hears about newspaper endorsements, and even less people care.
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