Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 07, 2019, 06:25:41 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 35 36 37 38 39 [40] 41 42 43 44 45 ... 104 Print
Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 122687 times)
Gass3268
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #975 on: March 12, 2018, 01:02:13 pm »

It hit the number that Nate Cohn said he would want for college educated voters:

56% No college degree
44% 4-year college degree

Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,963


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #976 on: March 12, 2018, 01:02:43 pm »

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?

Dolly (D)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,956
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #977 on: March 12, 2018, 01:03:46 pm »

A +20 favorable rating in a usually R+25 district is pretty good.

Lamb seems to win this thing tomorrow.
Logged
Alabama_Indy10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,344
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #978 on: March 12, 2018, 01:11:07 pm »

Man, I hope Lamb can pull this out.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #979 on: March 12, 2018, 01:14:05 pm »





Even after the Trump rally and even with them polling more Republican friendly areas, Lamb's lead stayed stable.
Logged
Virginia
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,745
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #980 on: March 12, 2018, 01:15:42 pm »

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

It might still end up being a disaster when Trump is on the ballot, as Trump lacks one thing Obama generally had in both his campaigns, but more so in the first: popularity. All that has to happen for Trump and Republicans to get blown out in 2020 is, imo, Trump staying as popular as he has been since he first announced his run for president. That and a reasonably popular Democratic candidate, which up until Hillary Clinton was usually considered a given.
Logged
PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,357
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #981 on: March 12, 2018, 01:18:54 pm »

I really cannot see Saccone winning this. The polls showed a continuous shift to Lamb, the crosstabs are extremely favorable to Conor. I would honestly be shell shocked if Saccone won. It would be due to extremely low turnout (Something I don't see happening).
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,339
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #982 on: March 12, 2018, 01:22:41 pm »

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?

Dolly (D)

Beat me to it. Wink
Logged
Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
Zyzz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,845


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #983 on: March 12, 2018, 01:49:20 pm »

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!
Logged
PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,357
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #984 on: March 12, 2018, 01:50:51 pm »

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!


SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,638
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #985 on: March 12, 2018, 01:51:25 pm »

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!


SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH

Lmao
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,822
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #986 on: March 12, 2018, 01:56:51 pm »

www.politico.com/story/2018/03/12/pennsylvania-special-election-lamb-saccone-454728

Yet there’s evidence the Republican offensive might be having some effect. A data analysis completed by the RNC during the middle of last week showed Lamb leading just 48 percent to 47 percent, according to two people briefed on the numbers. The Democrat’s advantage had shrunk from 4 percentage points in the committee’s previous analysis of the race days earlier.

RNC internals show Saccone down.
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,768
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #987 on: March 12, 2018, 02:17:54 pm »

I can envision a 3-4 point Lamb win. This race really got away from Republicans in recent weeks (though I don't think they were always heavily favored as some people think). Saccone has been a poor candidate and Lamb's exceeded expectations.
Logged
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,835
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #988 on: March 12, 2018, 02:27:13 pm »

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!


SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH
Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,986
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #989 on: March 12, 2018, 02:30:18 pm »

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,092


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #990 on: March 12, 2018, 02:34:10 pm »

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

Horus has been possessed by LimoLiberal.
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,086
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #991 on: March 12, 2018, 02:35:10 pm »

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

Horus has been possessed by LimoLiberal.

The infallible Mind Model ™
Logged
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,835
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #992 on: March 12, 2018, 02:52:51 pm »



This should have been on his billboards everywhere.
Logged
Deranged California Suburbanite
Fubart Solman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,282
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #993 on: March 12, 2018, 02:58:26 pm »

New Monmouth poll: Dem Conor Lamb leads in all turnout models.

With turnout similar to special elections over the last year: Lamb leads 51-45

Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,860
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #994 on: March 12, 2018, 03:22:28 pm »

I still think Saccone wins, Lamb isn't at 50% and I suspect the undecideds are heavily gop.
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,086
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #995 on: March 12, 2018, 03:26:06 pm »

Future federal inmate Don Jr weighs in:

Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #996 on: March 12, 2018, 03:28:10 pm »

I still think Saccone wins, Lamb isn't at 50% and I suspect the undecideds are heavily gop.

You're taking the low turnout poll option?
Logged
President Griffin
Adam Griffin
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,626
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #997 on: March 12, 2018, 03:28:28 pm »

Looking at statewide returns from 2012-2014 for the past five elections for state races (Gov, AG, Senate, Auditor & Treasurer), the Democrat has averaged 45.2% of the vote in this district. It's not unfathomable at all to see him easily clearing 50 now that I've seen these figures.
Logged
History505
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,657
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #998 on: March 12, 2018, 04:01:10 pm »

Going to be one interesting night tomorrow...
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,086
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #999 on: March 12, 2018, 04:06:17 pm »

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

It might still end up being a disaster when Trump is on the ballot, as Trump lacks one thing Obama generally had in both his campaigns, but more so in the first: popularity. All that has to happen for Trump and Republicans to get blown out in 2020 is, imo, Trump staying as popular as he has been since he first announced his run for president. That and a reasonably popular Democratic candidate, which up until Hillary Clinton was usually considered a given.

Popularity is overrated to an extent. Even when you account for Obama's popularity...he presided over one of the worst records since Truman for the Senate and FDR for the House in terms of losses.

Logged
Pages: 1 ... 35 36 37 38 39 [40] 41 42 43 44 45 ... 104 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC