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| | |-+  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 96578 times)
DTC
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« Reply #975 on: March 12, 2018, 12:54:33 pm »

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Candidate quality is important.  (Fundamentals are important too.)

The human capital of the democratic candidates for the midterms has been phenomenal. We got Phil freaking Bredesen to run in Tennessee. The best the GOP could get is Kevin Cramer.

Well, Rick Scott is extremely good. And I'd consider Evan Jenkins a good candidate as well (better than Kramer).

But yeah, the GOP recruits are... not great.
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Mondale
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« Reply #976 on: March 12, 2018, 12:55:59 pm »

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« Reply #977 on: March 12, 2018, 12:59:54 pm »

Btw, funny that RCP only entered the low turnout model in their database.

Oh, and...

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Gass3268
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« Reply #978 on: March 12, 2018, 01:02:13 pm »

It hit the number that Nate Cohn said he would want for college educated voters:

56% No college degree
44% 4-year college degree

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Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Gillibrand
4. Castro
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6. Delaney
7. Gabbard
Brittain33
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« Reply #979 on: March 12, 2018, 01:02:43 pm »

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?

Dolly (D)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #980 on: March 12, 2018, 01:03:46 pm »

A +20 favorable rating in a usually R+25 district is pretty good.

Lamb seems to win this thing tomorrow.
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #981 on: March 12, 2018, 01:11:07 pm »

Man, I hope Lamb can pull this out.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #982 on: March 12, 2018, 01:14:05 pm »





Even after the Trump rally and even with them polling more Republican friendly areas, Lamb's lead stayed stable.
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Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

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« Reply #983 on: March 12, 2018, 01:15:42 pm »

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

It might still end up being a disaster when Trump is on the ballot, as Trump lacks one thing Obama generally had in both his campaigns, but more so in the first: popularity. All that has to happen for Trump and Republicans to get blown out in 2020 is, imo, Trump staying as popular as he has been since he first announced his run for president. That and a reasonably popular Democratic candidate, which up until Hillary Clinton was usually considered a given.
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« Reply #984 on: March 12, 2018, 01:18:54 pm »

I really cannot see Saccone winning this. The polls showed a continuous shift to Lamb, the crosstabs are extremely favorable to Conor. I would honestly be shell shocked if Saccone won. It would be due to extremely low turnout (Something I don't see happening).
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Badger
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« Reply #985 on: March 12, 2018, 01:22:41 pm »

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?

Dolly (D)

Beat me to it. Wink
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« Reply #986 on: March 12, 2018, 01:49:20 pm »

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« Reply #987 on: March 12, 2018, 01:50:51 pm »

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!


SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH
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« Reply #988 on: March 12, 2018, 01:51:25 pm »

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!


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Lmao
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« Reply #989 on: March 12, 2018, 01:56:51 pm »

www.politico.com/story/2018/03/12/pennsylvania-special-election-lamb-saccone-454728

Yet there’s evidence the Republican offensive might be having some effect. A data analysis completed by the RNC during the middle of last week showed Lamb leading just 48 percent to 47 percent, according to two people briefed on the numbers. The Democrat’s advantage had shrunk from 4 percentage points in the committee’s previous analysis of the race days earlier.

RNC internals show Saccone down.
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Holmes
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« Reply #990 on: March 12, 2018, 02:17:54 pm »

I can envision a 3-4 point Lamb win. This race really got away from Republicans in recent weeks (though I don't think they were always heavily favored as some people think). Saccone has been a poor candidate and Lamb's exceeded expectations.
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #991 on: March 12, 2018, 02:27:13 pm »

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!


SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH
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Horus
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« Reply #992 on: March 12, 2018, 02:30:18 pm »

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #993 on: March 12, 2018, 02:34:10 pm »

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

Horus has been possessed by LimoLiberal.
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Mondale
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« Reply #994 on: March 12, 2018, 02:35:10 pm »

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

Horus has been possessed by LimoLiberal.

The infallible Mind Model ™
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #995 on: March 12, 2018, 02:52:51 pm »



This should have been on his billboards everywhere.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #996 on: March 12, 2018, 02:58:26 pm »

New Monmouth poll: Dem Conor Lamb leads in all turnout models.

With turnout similar to special elections over the last year: Lamb leads 51-45

Go big or go home. Lamb by 6
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« Reply #997 on: March 12, 2018, 03:22:28 pm »

I still think Saccone wins, Lamb isn't at 50% and I suspect the undecideds are heavily gop.
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Mondale
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« Reply #998 on: March 12, 2018, 03:26:06 pm »

Future federal inmate Don Jr weighs in:

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Gass3268
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« Reply #999 on: March 12, 2018, 03:28:10 pm »

I still think Saccone wins, Lamb isn't at 50% and I suspect the undecideds are heavily gop.

You're taking the low turnout poll option?
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Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
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3. Gillibrand
4. Castro
5. Ojeda
6. Delaney
7. Gabbard
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