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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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| | |-+  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 96584 times)
Mondale
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« Reply #1025 on: March 12, 2018, 06:42:44 pm »


Looks like we're headed for a Lambslide
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #1026 on: March 12, 2018, 06:43:55 pm »


ba dum tss
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« Reply #1027 on: March 12, 2018, 06:46:03 pm »

Why did the republican win this by 37 in 2016?

It's not like if Lamb ran in 2016, he'd have won. Don't get me wrong, he's a great candidate (against a poor one at that), but the national environment and who is president has a lot to do with it. I'd even argue it has the most to do with it. In 2016, Obama was still the incumbent and Democrats were in an election under 8 continuous years of a Democratic president who was generally more unpopular than he was popular. That takes a toll.

This is why I sometimes say that I really think most people have forgotten just how much an unpopular incumbent president can hurt their party in elections held while that president is in office. It seriously sucks the energy out of their party while firing up the opposition. Doubly so when said president is extremely controversial, like Trump. They don't call it the White House curse for nothing.
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« Reply #1028 on: March 12, 2018, 06:53:32 pm »

Is it too early to start making Lamb for Senate '22 signs?

Yes
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« Reply #1029 on: March 12, 2018, 07:17:20 pm »

Why did the republican win this by 37 in 2016?

In addition to what Virginia said, Murphy was pro-union and Democrats had given up seriously contesting this district with him in it (if they ever did.)
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« Reply #1030 on: March 12, 2018, 07:21:51 pm »

Is it too early to start making Lamb for Senate '22 signs?

Yes

Yeah, don't put the cart before the horse.  There were people talking up Ossoff for President in 2028 before the GA-6 special.
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« Reply #1031 on: March 12, 2018, 07:25:17 pm »

Guys. Lamb is going to win. Let's stop with the "Ohh partisan lean!" "Might eek out!" "Saccone +27" crap. The polls have continuously moved in favor of Lamb, he has the energized base, has the fundraising numbers, etc.

Plus, Saccone is talking like he knows he's gonna lose.

I hope you're right.
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« Reply #1032 on: March 12, 2018, 07:34:23 pm »

Is it too early to start making Lamb for Senate '22 signs?

Yes

Yeah, don't put the cart before the horse.  There were people talking up Ossoff for President in 2028 before the GA-6 special.
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« Reply #1033 on: March 12, 2018, 07:35:45 pm »

Is it too early to start making Lamb for Senate '22 signs?
Jumping the gun is a favorite pastime of atlas
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« Reply #1034 on: March 12, 2018, 08:01:32 pm »

Am i misthinking, or is this race the most concerning for Republicans. Doug Jones winning in Alabama was crazy, but this is a coal district and the numbers have been trending Lamb and the momentum isnt slowing. If this works out, and it looks like it will, a blue dog democrat revival in the rust belt could be underway.
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« Reply #1035 on: March 12, 2018, 08:02:07 pm »

Who's ready for the inevitable panic/elation over anecdotal turnout reports?
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« Reply #1036 on: March 12, 2018, 08:11:27 pm »

Who's ready for the inevitable panic/elation over anecdotal turnout reports?

I for one am hyped for the atlas freak outs
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« Reply #1037 on: March 12, 2018, 08:12:30 pm »

Am i misthinking, or is this race the most concerning for Republicans. Doug Jones winning in Alabama was crazy, but this is a coal district and the numbers have been trending Lamb and the momentum isnt slowing. If this works out, and it looks like it will, a blue dog democrat revival in the rust belt could be underway.

Hard to say.  While there are strong coal ties in the district, the district is more white collar than what most people think.  If Lamb wins it will almost certainly be because he torched Saccone in the white collar well-educated inner suburbs.  The blue collar coal regions will likely swing as well and will have some impact, but this could also be viewed as more evidence of the absolute collapse of the GOP with well educated suburbanites.
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« Reply #1038 on: March 12, 2018, 08:18:56 pm »

This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.  (I almost wonder if the timing of the tariff announcement was timed to coincide with this election.)
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« Reply #1039 on: March 12, 2018, 08:20:39 pm »

Who's ready for the inevitable panic/elation over anecdotal turnout reports?

I for one am hyped for the atlas freak outs
And I'm dreading the premature reports of "Saccone/Lamb has won it" when less than 20% of the precincts are counted.
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« Reply #1040 on: March 12, 2018, 08:21:03 pm »

This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.  (I almost wonder if the timing of the tariff announcement was timed to coincide with this election.)

Except that like 95% of voters in the district don't care enough about it to sway their votes.
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« Reply #1041 on: March 12, 2018, 08:26:16 pm »

I have anxiety every Election Day all day. This one is really going to put me on edge, more so than the Alabama Senate race.
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« Reply #1042 on: March 12, 2018, 08:37:49 pm »

This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.  (I almost wonder if the timing of the tariff announcement was timed to coincide with this election.)

Except that like 95% of voters in the district don't care enough about it to sway their votes.

In fact, the Monmouth poll found that 96% of the voters said that the tariff announcement did not affect their vote.
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« Reply #1043 on: March 12, 2018, 08:38:58 pm »

Didn't the Monmouth poll state that over 95% of the voters said the tariffs will not effect their vote?

Btw, Oldies, nobody in South Western Pennsylvania cares about Kim Jung-un.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 08:45:20 pm by PittsburghSteel »Logged

OneJ
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« Reply #1044 on: March 12, 2018, 08:40:05 pm »

This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.  (I almost wonder if the timing of the tariff announcement was timed to coincide with this election.)

Proof, please. Oh wait...
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« Reply #1045 on: March 12, 2018, 08:41:15 pm »

Didn't the Monmouth poll state that over 95% of the voters said the tariffs will not effect their vote?

See previous post above yours. Smiley
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« Reply #1046 on: March 12, 2018, 08:44:16 pm »

For the love of Christ. How many times do I have to explain that GA-06 and PA-18 are two completely different districts with completely different candidates? Different income groups, different ethnicities, different histories, different party registration, etc. There is no correlation between Ossoff and Lamb besides the fact they are in their 30s. Lamb is strong, charismatic, relatable, and he fits the district like a glove. He's also been GAINING traction in the polls. Ossoff LOST ground in the final weeks, and by Election Day, Handel had the advantage. Don't believe me? Here's the proof: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/house/ga/georgia_6th_district_runoff_election_handel_vs_ossoff-6202.html

ENOUGH with the comparisons.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 08:48:33 pm by PittsburghSteel »Logged

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« Reply #1047 on: March 12, 2018, 09:16:28 pm »

So if Conor Lamb wins PA-18 and runs in PA-17, as expected....

What if Saccone decides to run again in PA-14 on the basis that he won the territory in the new PA-14 that overlaps with the old PA-18?

Would he potentially endanger PA-14 for the GOP in 2018?

The filing deadline is the 20th... Saccone's current district is mostly Allegheny but it straddles Washington.

If Conor Lamb gets in the mid-40s in the non-Allegheny part of the district, that could spell some trouble for Saccone because the new district adds in the bluer (still red but very ancestrally Democratic) parts of Washington/Greene, all of historically Democratic Fayette County and some Dem pockets of Westmoreland.

Saccone is a suburban/exurban politician and his antagonistic relationship with unions would not play well in the new territory.

If Dems were to recruit a Dem more conservative than Lamb (a la Ojeda) and Saccone were to have the stink of a loss on him, could we get a twofer out of this?
« Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 09:33:52 pm by socaldem »Logged

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« Reply #1048 on: March 12, 2018, 09:32:40 pm »

So if Conor Lamb wins PA-18 and Saccone decides to run again in PA-14?

Would he potentially endanger PA-14 for the GOP?

The filing deadline is the 20th... Saccone's current district is mostly Allegheny but it straddles Washington.

If Conor Lamb gets in the mid-40s in the non-Allegheny part of the district, that could spell some trouble for Saccone because the new district adds in the bluer (still red but very ancestrally Democratic) parts of Washington/Greene/Westmoreland counties plus Fayette County.

Saccone is a suburban/exurban politician and his antagonistic relationship with unions would not play well in the new territory.

If Dems were to recruit a Dem more conservative than Lamb and Saccone were to have the stink of a loss on him, could we get a twofer out of this?
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« Reply #1049 on: March 12, 2018, 09:58:13 pm »


I hope Lamb wins.. This guy seems like a dumba$$
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