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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 126320 times)
Classic Conservative
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« Reply #1250 on: March 13, 2018, 04:42:05 pm »


I don't want to jump the gun, but I agree. We have seen nothing but good news for Lamb, both today and the past week. And there is no way Saccone is going to win with how high that turnout is getting.
I agree as well. My only pause is turnout in the other counties, which we have mostly no idea about, but most definitely aren't going to be hitting high levels of participation.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1251 on: March 13, 2018, 04:42:31 pm »

Guys, I found this gem from Nate Cohn. I mostly agree with it, except I don't see Saccone carrying Waynesburg at all, and his margins in the rest of Green county will probably be slimmer. I also think his lead in the washington co suburbs south of Bethel Park will not be nearly that overwhelming.



It's their approximation of a 50/50 race. If a candidate exceeds the benchmark in a precinct, it'll move the needle in their favor, and vice-versa.

Ah, I see, thanks.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #1252 on: March 13, 2018, 04:43:42 pm »

It sounds weird to put any weight into this but MAGA Twitter spearheaded by that Scott idiot Limo hates, is trying to get "cons are being turned away at the polls because of redistricting"/voter fraud conspiracy going. So even they seem to be bracing for a loss
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1253 on: March 13, 2018, 04:44:56 pm »

Which will be annoying if Saccone wins, smart on their part.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #1254 on: March 13, 2018, 04:45:13 pm »

It sounds weird to put any weight into this but MAGA Twitter spearheaded by that Scott idiot Limo hates, is trying to get "cons are being turned away at the polls because of redistricting"/voter fraud conspiracy going. So eveb they seem to be bracing for a loss

I saw that. They keep sharing the exact same screenshot of a text message: "They said I couldn't vote because I've been redistricted." No name or time, and claim it's happening all over the district.


Btw, it's not just Limo that hates that guy. It's also me and a few other Atlasians. The buffoons over at PredictIt make fun of him all the time.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1255 on: March 13, 2018, 04:45:37 pm »

Yeah I'm getting to a point where I'll be really shocked if Lamb loses

We should still remain cautiously optimistic. Saccone could still win, but turnout exceeding expectations makes that very hard to believe. Let's also remember Monmouth has an A+ rating from 538 and they said that Conor should win by a comfortable margin if turnout is high.

Yes, but don't forget that little thing called Margin of Error.  Even in the most favorable model for Lamb, the race was within MoE.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #1256 on: March 13, 2018, 04:45:58 pm »

I think the most obvious sign is that Democratic voters, especially those in Clinton areas, are very energized and ready to vote, many Trump Democrats are still looking for a change agent in our system and not somebody from the political caste, and candidates do matter, this was painfully obvious here and Alabama.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #1257 on: March 13, 2018, 04:46:59 pm »

It sounds weird to put any weight into this but MAGA Twitter spearheaded by that Scott idiot Limo hates, is trying to get "cons are being turned away at the polls because of redistricting"/voter fraud conspiracy going. So eveb they seem to be bracing for a loss

I saw that. They keep sharing the exact same screenshot of a text message: "They said I couldn't vote because I've been redistricted." No name or time, and claim it's happening all over the district.
I think it's mostly people who were in surrounding communities especially in rural areas and the new PA-14.
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« Reply #1258 on: March 13, 2018, 04:48:29 pm »

Getting tons of AL flashbacks.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #1259 on: March 13, 2018, 04:53:41 pm »

This is Washington county. Anyone have total registered voters and past election results for this precinct?



Clinton lost by 30 and Obama lost by 22. Benchmark model says Lamb will need to only lose by 9 to win (in a universal swing ofc)
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1260 on: March 13, 2018, 04:54:07 pm »

This is Washington county. Anyone have total registered voters and past election results for this precinct?



Ok found some info. Was a 62-32 Trump district in 2016 with 676 votes. 400 is pretty damn good so far! Pretty sure this precinct is gonna be Saccone country, as he represents it in the state house.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1261 on: March 13, 2018, 04:55:17 pm »

Ngl I get off on these tweets

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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #1262 on: March 13, 2018, 04:55:21 pm »

If I was Lamb right now, I would be feeling very confident.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1263 on: March 13, 2018, 04:59:53 pm »

If I was Lamb right now, I would be feeling very confident.

I want Lamb to win, but it would be really funny to see how much crow you will have to eat after the past week if Saccone wins. Smiley
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #1264 on: March 13, 2018, 05:01:24 pm »

Two hours left!
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marty
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« Reply #1265 on: March 13, 2018, 05:09:18 pm »

Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?
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« Reply #1266 on: March 13, 2018, 05:10:30 pm »

Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?

Not to my immediate memory.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1267 on: March 13, 2018, 05:11:53 pm »

Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?

Kathy Hochul in 2011?
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1268 on: March 13, 2018, 05:13:24 pm »

Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?

Kathy Hochul in 2011?

Mark Critz in 2010 might fit the bill as well, though it wasn't a massive upset that he won.
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MB
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« Reply #1269 on: March 13, 2018, 05:17:55 pm »

What time do the results come in officially?
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1270 on: March 13, 2018, 05:18:44 pm »

What time do the results come in officially?

Around 8:20 PM EST
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #1271 on: March 13, 2018, 05:19:46 pm »

Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?
Hochul in 2011, and Bill Owens in 2009
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1272 on: March 13, 2018, 05:21:32 pm »

Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?



Kathy Hochul in 2011?

Best example I can think of
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Mondale
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« Reply #1273 on: March 13, 2018, 05:21:49 pm »

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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #1274 on: March 13, 2018, 05:23:07 pm »

Also, somebody posted this early, but it's super handy so I'll recommend it again: Benchmarks for Lamb per precinct:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TTQPU3facejYEkSyE7nzCclRHML56jQhM4hOGit87sE/htmlview#
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