PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 197689 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1400 on: March 13, 2018, 07:16:40 PM »

So no 538 live analysis, I know they did one for AL-Sen in December, did they not do any for MT-AL, GA-6, etc?

They did GA-6.  Not sure about MT.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1401 on: March 13, 2018, 07:17:40 PM »

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henster
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« Reply #1402 on: March 13, 2018, 07:18:40 PM »

No early voting so this could take awhile.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #1403 on: March 13, 2018, 07:18:52 PM »

"Saccone? Never heard or met the guy"

-Trump
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1404 on: March 13, 2018, 07:19:06 PM »


So pretty much everybody is expecting Lamb to win.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1405 on: March 13, 2018, 07:19:44 PM »

Before first votes are cast, NYTimes prediction ranges from Lamb +13 to Saccone +13, will update as it narrows
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1406 on: March 13, 2018, 07:20:13 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1407 on: March 13, 2018, 07:20:20 PM »


So pretty much everybody is expecting Lamb to win.

Harry said earlier today that he considered Lamb less of a favorite than Clinton was in November 2016.
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Truvinny
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« Reply #1408 on: March 13, 2018, 07:20:33 PM »

This is very exciting but not exciting at the same time.

As a political junkie, I'm loving the national implications and the expert analysis.

As a Pennsylvanian, I realize this seat isn't going to be around in January and there's a good chance both of these guys might be heading to Capitol Hill from different districts.
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #1409 on: March 13, 2018, 07:21:05 PM »

come on we want some hard numbers to analyze and then over-analyze
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Truvinny
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« Reply #1410 on: March 13, 2018, 07:21:24 PM »

"Saccone? Never heard or met the guy"

-Trump

"Maybe I made a mistake. Might have."
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #1411 on: March 13, 2018, 07:21:30 PM »

I love it when they eat their own.

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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1412 on: March 13, 2018, 07:21:58 PM »

Highkey excruciating.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #1413 on: March 13, 2018, 07:22:01 PM »

Pennsylvania political gerrymandering and redistricting is confusing.

No wonder the average voter is confused.

The drawing of congressional districts need to be made more easier for Americans to understand.

So, whoever wins tonight, they would be representing other districts in November?
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1414 on: March 13, 2018, 07:22:48 PM »

I love it when they eat their own.



At least Walsh has been consistent in pointing out how stupid some Republicans can be in elections, campaigns, and certain policies
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #1415 on: March 13, 2018, 07:23:08 PM »

"Saccone? Never heard or met the guy"

-Trump

"Maybe I made a mistake. Might have."
yeah, trump will say he really wasn't with him or some other bs
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Doimper
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« Reply #1416 on: March 13, 2018, 07:23:43 PM »

I love it when they eat their own.



At least Walsh has been consistent in pointing out how stupid some Republicans can be in elections, campaigns, and certain policies

Glass houses.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1417 on: March 13, 2018, 07:24:40 PM »

538 has posted benchmarks for the 4 (3, really) relevant counties that make up the district, but I don't buy them. They are using their ad-hoc "75% of 2016, 25% of 2012" measure, which has no empirical basis whatsoever.

So instead, let me point to my own analysis of special election data so far, which suggests that 2012 margin is in fact a much better predictor of special election results so far. Using the results from those analysis, I come up with these benchmarks for a tied race:
- Allegheny: D+9
- Westmoreland: R+9
- Washington: R+2
- Greene: R+10

Obviously this is a highly imprecise analysis, so I wouldn't vouch for these numbers, but I'd definitely trust them over 538's, for what it's worth.
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136or142
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« Reply #1418 on: March 13, 2018, 07:25:08 PM »

Before first votes are cast, NYTimes prediction ranges from Lamb +13 to Saccone +13, will update as it narrows

 I can guarantee with 100% certainty a range from Lamb +100 to Saccone +100.  
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1419 on: March 13, 2018, 07:26:29 PM »

↑ Fake picture
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #1420 on: March 13, 2018, 07:26:44 PM »

finally
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1421 on: March 13, 2018, 07:27:02 PM »


You are fake news
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #1422 on: March 13, 2018, 07:27:21 PM »

538 has posted benchmarks for the 4 (3, really) relevant counties that make up the district, but I don't buy them. They are using their ad-hoc "75% of 2016, 25% of 2012" measure, which has no empirical basis whatsoever.

So instead, let me point to my own analysis of special election data so far, which suggests that 2012 margin is in fact a much better predictor of special election results so far. Using the results from those analysis, I come up with these benchmarks for a tied race:
- Allegheny: D+9
- Westmoreland: R+9
- Washington: R+2
- Greene: R+10

Obviously this is a highly imprecise analysis, so I wouldn't vouch for these numbers, but I'd definitely trust them over 538's, for what it's worth.
nah, dems need a better margn in allegheny
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1423 on: March 13, 2018, 07:27:57 PM »

NYT first precicnct - Plesent hills 6

240 lamb 215 saccone
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cvparty
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« Reply #1424 on: March 13, 2018, 07:28:03 PM »

538 has posted benchmarks for the 4 (3, really) relevant counties that make up the district, but I don't buy them. They are using their ad-hoc "75% of 2016, 25% of 2012" measure, which has no empirical basis whatsoever.

So instead, let me point to my own analysis of special election data so far, which suggests that 2012 margin is in fact a much better predictor of special election results so far. Using the results from those analysis, I come up with these benchmarks for a tied race:
- Allegheny: D+9
- Westmoreland: R+9
- Washington: R+2
- Greene: R+10

Obviously this is a highly imprecise analysis, so I wouldn't vouch for these numbers, but I'd definitely trust them over 538's, for what it's worth.
nah, dems need a better margn in allegheny
not really, depends on turnout
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