PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.

Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

I doubt it will be that easy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lamb says he's in favor of the tariffs.

Gross

Its Pennsylvania. This place was built on tariffs. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A LimoLiberal phone-banking story

Voter: Hello?
LimoLiberal: Good evening ma'm, do you have a moment to talk about the ongoing Congressional special election and why Lamb is the best candidate for your district?
Voter: Well, sure, for a minute anyway.
LimoLiberal: Lamb has only been leading in one poll, so I doubt he can win.
Voter: Wait, what?
LimoLiberal: Especially after the Texas primary completely blew up the wave narrative, Saccone is unfortunately going to win.
Voter: Aren't you supposed to be convincing me to vote for Lamb?
LimoLiberal: I am. Just because I don't believe Democrats are getting a wave in 2018 doesn't mean I'm not trying to convince you to vote for Lamb.
Voter: Ok, I have to go. Take care, or something...
LimoLiberal: Alright, just FYI though, tomorrow morning, Gravis is going to release a poll showing a total collapse for Lamb, but it's important you go to vote for him.

hangs up

Of course, there may be a massive blizzard that day, so you may not even want to leave the house.

Not to mention lots of rain.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A few months ago, when Murphy resigned and the special election was called, I remember Sean Trende tweeting that "here is another chance for the Democrats to lose another race by 5-6 points and claim moral victory afterwards".

I guess things went a little differently than he anticipated.

To be fair, at that time it looked like a long shot.

Alabama senate looked like a no shot last August.
Yet Bill effing Kristol predicted that Jones would win.

To be fair, that was the pattern at the time - Democrats failing to win special after special election.
One needs to keep in mind the context and circumstances.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Note that the parts of new PA-14 not in the existing PA-18 are, under normal circumstances at least, considerably more D than the parts in the present PA-18. Worth seriously contesting for the Ds, no matter how badly Clinton bombed there.

I mean it's not just Clinton - Obama lost the district by 18 points in 2012. Sure, there are districts Obama lost by 15-20 points that can still be won by the right Democrat at the right time (especially in Appalachia), but it's not exactly a prime target. If Democrats want to make a play for a deeply WWC district in Pennsylvania, PA-16 would be a much better choice.

It includes all of Fayette County, which Wolf won in 2014.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Note that the parts of new PA-14 not in the existing PA-18 are, under normal circumstances at least, considerably more D than the parts in the present PA-18. Worth seriously contesting for the Ds, no matter how badly Clinton bombed there.

I mean it's not just Clinton - Obama lost the district by 18 points in 2012. Sure, there are districts Obama lost by 15-20 points that can still be won by the right Democrat at the right time (especially in Appalachia), but it's not exactly a prime target. If Democrats want to make a play for a deeply WWC district in Pennsylvania, PA-16 would be a much better choice.

It includes all of Fayette County, which Wolf won in 2014.

He still lost Westmoreland by 14 points, despite being ahead by 10 statewide.

Wait, are we on the same page here? I am talking about new PA-14.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Note that the parts of new PA-14 not in the existing PA-18 are, under normal circumstances at least, considerably more D than the parts in the present PA-18. Worth seriously contesting for the Ds, no matter how badly Clinton bombed there.

I mean it's not just Clinton - Obama lost the district by 18 points in 2012. Sure, there are districts Obama lost by 15-20 points that can still be won by the right Democrat at the right time (especially in Appalachia), but it's not exactly a prime target. If Democrats want to make a play for a deeply WWC district in Pennsylvania, PA-16 would be a much better choice.

It includes all of Fayette County, which Wolf won in 2014.

He still lost Westmoreland by 14 points, despite being ahead by 10 statewide.

Wait, are we on the same page here? I am talking about new PA-14.

...yes? The new PA-14 includes almost all of Westmoreland County.

Evidence points to most statewide D nominees losing it by high single digits.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=42&year=2016&f=0&off=8&elect=0