PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Virginiá]

I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.

[Virginiá]

But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

I would have thought that after Alabama, you'd realize that Trump's influence is actually a lot more limited than previously thought. Especially in states where he is unpopular (such as PA, and probably OH). I also doubt Trump blabbing all night on a stage in West Virginia would topple Manchin.

[Virginiá]

I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.

The fact that this race is even competitive is a testament to how unfavorable this environment is for Republicans. It'd be nice if Democrats won it, but it's not really necessary, and it's not exactly a district Democrats could expect to hold for long at all (perhaps not even past 2018).

All this attention paid to it has set Republicans up for another round of gloating about how they managed to hold a normally safe R+11 district, completely oblivious to how low their standard of success has been lowered in the Trump era.

[Virginiá]

Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

Maybe, but I think you are over-simplifying how easy it would be for Trump to shift that many voters into Saccone's corner. Presidents can have a lot of influence over their party's voters, but they aren't deities. Trump-approvers are not all going to vote in lockstep with the president's party or with the president's wishes, just like Trump-disapprovers usually don't vote lockstep against POTUS/their party either.

[Virginiá]

It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.

[Virginiá]

It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.

True, but optics are everything in American Politics. There's a way to go about it without alienating anyone.

Keep in mind that as far as activism goes, that isn't something the party itself can just tweak until it gets it right. Those are real people out there, many of whom constantly see a side of the criminal justice system that just doesn't react the same way to vast swathes of white people. They don't really care about optics, even if maybe they should.

Also let's remember that many conservatives don't even believe that the criminal justice is unfair to PoC, or they substantially marginalize any perceived shortcomings. You can see this not only from the voters themselves but the politicians who represent them, as well as polls on relevant issues.

edit: as per Lyndon's comments, it does raise a good point - Republicans seem to be pro-police only up to the point where it doesn't threaten their political power or their Dear Leader. But once that happens, they seem to have no problem going full anti-FBI, which is funny because they seemed to pride themselves on being the guardians of the FBI for decades prior 

[Virginiá]

A LimoLiberal phone-banking story

Voter: Hello?
LimoLiberal: Good evening ma'm, do you have a moment to talk about the ongoing Congressional special election and why Lamb is the best candidate for your district?
Voter: Well, sure, for a minute anyway.
LimoLiberal: Lamb has only been leading in one poll, so I doubt he can win.
Voter: Wait, what?
LimoLiberal: Especially after the Texas primary completely blew up the wave narrative, Saccone is unfortunately going to win.
Voter: Aren't you supposed to be convincing me to vote for Lamb?
LimoLiberal: I am. Just because I don't believe Democrats are getting a wave in 2018 doesn't mean I'm not trying to convince you to vote for Lamb.
Voter: Ok, I have to go. Take care, or something...
LimoLiberal: Alright, just FYI though, tomorrow morning, Gravis is going to release a poll showing a total collapse for Lamb, but it's important you go to vote for him.

hangs up

[Virginiá]

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

It might still end up being a disaster when Trump is on the ballot, as Trump lacks one thing Obama generally had in both his campaigns, but more so in the first: popularity. All that has to happen for Trump and Republicans to get blown out in 2020 is, imo, Trump staying as popular as he has been since he first announced his run for president. That and a reasonably popular Democratic candidate, which up until Hillary Clinton was usually considered a given.

[Virginiá]

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

It might still end up being a disaster when Trump is on the ballot, as Trump lacks one thing Obama generally had in both his campaigns, but more so in the first: popularity. All that has to happen for Trump and Republicans to get blown out in 2020 is, imo, Trump staying as popular as he has been since he first announced his run for president. That and a reasonably popular Democratic candidate, which up until Hillary Clinton was usually considered a given.

Popularity is overrated to an extent. Even when you account for Obama's popularity...he presided over one of the worst records since Truman for the Senate and FDR for the House in terms of losses.

-snip-

Well that is because in 2014 he was pretty unpopular by modern standards - something like 40% approve / 51-52% disapprove, so even still lower than Trump. In 2010, he was breaking even around 45-45. However, the thing is, Democrats are at a clear disadvantage in the states, and the South still had a ton of Democrats in state offices, so it didn't take a deeply unpopular Democratic president to cause a massive loss of legislative seats. It just took one like Obama, who was straddling the line, and also represented a (small) break from the more Bill Clinton-like centrist approach. Democrats were very much over-extended after 2006 and 2008, and all it took was a midterm or two under a Democratic president to wipe out those gains. This is kind of why I don't like the "we lost 900-1000 legislative seats under Obama..." thing. It's a bit misleading, and attempts to explain a complex electoral situation by a snappy one-liner that doesn't answer the question in full.

So my thoughts are that approval ratings do matter. Presidents with 40% approval ratings are going to have a hard time getting re-elected (or elected in the first place at 40% favorable) unless their opponent is just as unpopular. In fact, if Trump is hovering around 37-38% approval in 2020, I do think it gives another opportunity for a wave. It's only if Trump maintains a consistent upper-40s / low-50s approval that I think he might have a shot, just like any other president with similar ratings. But I don't expect him to have those kinds of numbers in 2020. He's not capable of changing what he needs to change to achieve it.

[Virginiá]

Interesting:

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Not too surprising. 538 and others like Cook have been remarking about strong approve/disapprove since Trump wormed his way into office. Someone who strongly dislikes Trump and what he is doing in office is not liable to help his party, which at this point I think is relatively clear will go far out of their way to protect Trump, no matter how dumb or corrupt his actions are. I have to admit, the lengths they will go is even surprising me. I always thought there would be a breaking point, but I guess that doesn't make sense since Republican voters like Trump a lot more than they like Republican lawmakers.

[Virginiá]

Why did the republican win this by 37 in 2016?

It's not like if Lamb ran in 2016, he'd have won. Don't get me wrong, he's a great candidate (against a poor one at that), but the national environment and who is president has a lot to do with it. I'd even argue it has the most to do with it. In 2016, Obama was still the incumbent and Democrats were in an election under 8 continuous years of a Democratic president who was generally more unpopular than he was popular. That takes a toll.

This is why I sometimes say that I really think most people have forgotten just how much an unpopular incumbent president can hurt their party in elections held while that president is in office. It seriously sucks the energy out of their party while firing up the opposition. Doubly so when said president is extremely controversial, like Trump. They don't call it the White House curse for nothing.

[Virginiá]

I am not able to be here / monitor the thread closely tonight, so I'm not moving LimoLiberal posts for the time being. If he becomes a problem in any way, let me know and I will put him on mod review for tonight and just let the posts backlog into the abyss. (so please don't go mad reporting his posts all night)

[Virginiá]

Can’t you just ignore limo?

This issue has been talked to death over the past week (re: The Atlas), so let's just focus on the PA election in this thread.

[Virginiá]

Can you guys actually see the note I pinned at the top of the thread? It appears on every page. It has the results link lol

I'm wondering if it's even visible now.

[Virginiá]

danke

No worries, thanks. I was just worried it might not be visible at all.

[Virginiá]

I know this isn't relevant to the topic at hand, but why is the site an hr behind?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;sa=theme

Time Offset / auto detect (or enter it yourself if you know it)

[Virginiá]

Westmoreland dumping at 9:30.

This should be noted and not lost in the thread.

I'll make a note at the top

[Virginiá]

Guy's, This special election will do little to sway what is done in congress. Atlas and the internet is blowing this election out of proportion.

It's all about the narrative and what it shows about the national environment (so implications for November).

We know it doesn't make a practical difference. It's just important for us political junkies. We need to feed our habit.

[Virginiá]

Regardless of what the final results are, this is why you don’t get over confident and start jinxing stuff people.

Jinxing isn't reallllllllll

[Virginiá]

Crazy Drumpf

https://www.twitter.com/mkraju/status/973994661504266240

"Basically a tie" in what would normally be a safe R seat is ok to them?

The interesting thing is, lying to themselves doesn't put an end to the electoral bloodbath waiting later this year. At best, it's just their public face and they understand the implications privately. At worst, they are actively deluding themselves, thus potentially hindering their ability to do things that could help blunt the impact of a backlash in November.

Personally, I don't think there is much they can do at this point, but if there was anything, stuffing Trump away in the west wing, taking his phone away and basically making him a ghost would probably help somewhat. Most of the GOP's problems right now are of Trump's own making. The man is a walking scandal. If it isn't something from his past, it's something new coming from his mouth and/or twitter account.

[Virginiá]

GOP cries voter fraud....DRINK

Rep. Steve Stivers, NRCC Chair, suggests voter fraud may have helped Conor Lamb

According to Republicans, they have never lost an election. Either they've won outright or the Democrats stole it with their 1,000+ fleet of Soros busses

[Virginiá]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/16/politics/pennsylvania-special-election-gop-investigation/index.html

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