PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Dr. Arch]

Lamb released his first TV ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/953991405353013248

Freedom ad!

He's easy on the eyes.

[Dr. Arch]

Lamb's got a new ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/955630664426119169

Has the Saccone campaign released anything yet?

This feels like another Doug Jones type candidate in the making (in terms of message and campaign effectiveness). Approve.

[Dr. Arch]

Saw a bunch of Conor Lamb signs today. No sign of Saccone. This guy is running a very quiet campaign.

Sounds like D+1 to me.

[Dr. Arch]

Saw a bunch of Conor Lamb signs today. No sign of Saccone. This guy is running a very quiet campaign.

Sounds like D+1 to me.

Please don't jinx it or get overconfident, you are a better poster than that.

lol, what does overconfidence have to do with the quality of my posts? Anyways, I'm fully aware there's always the chance to lose. I don't expect anything, even out of polls, until the results come in. Unlike many, I learned from 2016.

[Dr. Arch]

Saw a bunch of Conor Lamb signs today. No sign of Saccone. This guy is running a very quiet campaign.

Sounds like D+1 to me.

Congressman Ossof agrees.

Actually, I never thought Ossoff had a lock on the win.

[Dr. Arch]

Just heard a Saccone ad on the radio. My god, it was awful. They are really trying to peddle this pathetic "Nancy and her lamb" smear. It then went onto some hardcore heavy-metal background music and bragged about how Saccone tortured terrorists and that's why he should be a congressman. He deserves to lose this race in a landslide.

L0L

[Dr. Arch]

Final?

50-47 (D) hold

[Dr. Arch]

I agree, and welcome to Atlas!

[Dr. Arch]

When is this election? The longer the delay, the more time has for Lamb to build coalitions. This Saccone guy seems like a complete tool/flop.

[Dr. Arch]

When is this election? The longer the delay, the more time has for Lamb to build coalitions. This Saccone guy seems like a complete tool/flop.

March 13.

Excellent

[Dr. Arch]

This is a robotic, defensive ad from Lamb: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gYEUHmTe68

... How is it robotic in any way?

Remember this is Limo. Half of the time, he's editorializing everything to make it negative.

[Dr. Arch]

I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look

Please don't be that profane here.

"Profane" refers to the violation of that which is sacred; saying the Lord's name in vain, for example. You mean "obscene". Interestingly enough, C.S. Lewis in The Screwtape Letters, I believe, noted that Protestants were more likely to use profanity, and Catholics obscenity.

Grammar nazis everywhere...

*Grammar nationalist.

Lmao

[Dr. Arch]

Did nobody see the Emerson poll with Lamb +3?

o.O?

[Dr. Arch]

Emerson: PA-18 (474 LV)

Lamb (D): 48
Saccone (R): 45

D+3

Link: https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5d83bc45f4839ff4fb96bb8b8/files/4c844b0f-5529-417e-b125-3e880511a1e3/ECP_PA18_3.5.18_PR.pdf


Other tidbits:
-7% of LV undecided
-"It’s voter excitement that might put Lamb over the top. When asked about level of excitement among
voters about the election, 63% of Lamb voters reported being very excited compared to 53% of Saccone voters. Lamb voters also are paying more attention to the race, with 47% reported paying a lot of attention, compared to 42% of Saccone voters."

[Dr. Arch]

As I said a while ago, the longer this goes, the better for Lamb.

[Dr. Arch]

Gravis (03/01-03/05)
Saccone 45
Lamb 42 (+2)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_PA_18_March_7th_2018.pdf

The closer to the election day, the more advantage Lamb gains. This has been consistent for a while now, and there's still a bit to go.

[Dr. Arch]

Yeah, this poll is questionable:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That being said the % with a college degree in PA-18 is higher than the national average, which it contrary to what folks would imagine with this district, and I imagine folks with a college degree are more like to turnout to vote in a special election.

That's what I'm thinking. Highly educated voters are already more likely to turn out by default.

[Dr. Arch]

Brutal ad hitting Saccone on opioids with his own words

Conor Lamb is amazing. I really really really hope he wins this race. I know he will challenge Rothfus, win or loses but winning this race will make the race in the 17th easier for him. I want him to be our Senator one day.

Getting Doug Jones vibes all over again.

[Dr. Arch]

Handsome... -barfs-

[Dr. Arch]

Because we have a lot of stickied threads, I'm thinking that on Tuesday I unsticky this one and conversation will migrate to the Congressional Results thread, where eventually it will peter out. What do people think?

You mean after Tuesday, right?

[Dr. Arch]

I hate that the media has done such a poor job of setting expectations. It's a Trump +20 district, ffs.

Exactly. I can just imagine the CNN roundtable discussions in November.
"So Chris, you say the midterms were disappointing for the Democrats?"
"Welll yes Wolf, some polling suggested a 50 seat advantage in the house and a 52-48 split in the senate, so it's frankly embarrassing that they ended up with a 10 seat majority and a 51 seat majority. If this holds up, Trump is a lock for re-election."

I imagine that the Democrats would be quite happy with that outcome regardless of how CNN might spin it.

Absolutely, and the sweet irony of Trump being put in a similar position Obama was would be the icing on the cake.

[Dr. Arch]

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!

SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH

Lmao

[Dr. Arch]

Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the forecast for tomorrow in the district is 25-34°F and light snow.

Snow is just another form of rain, checkmate libs.

Advanced rain

[Dr. Arch]

Is it too early to start making Lamb for Senate '22 signs?

Yes

[Dr. Arch]

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.