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December 13, 2019, 06:35:42 pm
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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 123191 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,015
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: January 18, 2018, 03:26:07 pm »

I have just googled "Conor Lamb" (I didn't even know that PA-18 has a special election soon) and he looks like a Democratic Mike Naso.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,015
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2018, 12:04:02 pm »

This Monmouth poll is similar to my early prediction from about a month ago ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,015
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2018, 11:07:58 am »


Saccone up by 3-5.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,015
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2018, 12:03:52 pm »

I have briefly read somewhere that PA's congressional districts were ruled unconstitutional.

Does this apply only to the PA state senate and house or the US house races as well ?

And if yes, does it mean the special election will still be held using the unconstitutional boundaries (I guess yes) ?

And what about the regular November election ? Old or new districts ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,015
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2018, 01:26:41 pm »

Is it just me or does anyone else think that this special election should be called off ?

Pretty weird to have the winner take the seat for a few months and then a new GE with new borders ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,015
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2018, 03:14:30 pm »


Quote
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,015
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #6 on: March 12, 2018, 01:03:46 pm »

A +20 favorable rating in a usually R+25 district is pretty good.

Lamb seems to win this thing tomorrow.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,015
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2018, 12:22:21 am »

This result is shocking news for Republicans when it comes to November ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,015
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2018, 06:36:03 am »

Ok so a number of stats and data friends are doing the math with me. Saccone would have to win remaining absentees by like 30 points to win despite underperforming in absentees vs E-Day. At this point it's pretty doubtful that Saccone can win. Right? Or did I miss something?

He has lost.

There are only a handful of ballots left to count, fewer than Lamb's current margin.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,015
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #9 on: March 14, 2018, 12:25:14 pm »

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So, it seems no more than 100 provisional/military ballots will be added in total over the next days.

All networks can call this race for Lamb now.
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