PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Brittain33]

I want to believe that Lamb is a great candidate and Saccone is a terrible candidate etc. but I suppose this is the kind of district where you would expect Trump support to be most durable.

[Brittain33]

Despite this poll result and the district's Trumpy profile, here's your Republican dog sweat article in Politico:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/11/trump-special-election-pennsylvania-pittsburgh-336502

[Brittain33]

I think this is a $-driven freakout, not a polling driven freakout. The fundamentals favor Saccone, but if he's broke, he could fail.

[Brittain33]

New York Times says internal polls on both sides report "single-digit race," confirms Republican dog sweat.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/17/us/politics/trump-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html?_r=0

I still believe Republicans will successfully nationalize this and eke out a win even though Saccone sucks and Lamb is Jesus with dimples.

[Brittain33]

I'm sure we will have another great debate on whether Pelosi should go in the coming weeks. It looks like Pelosi will the main thing they'll tie Lamb to.

Lamb has said repeatedly he's not voting for Pelosi for Speaker.

[Brittain33]

Stickied

[Brittain33]

It's interesting. He's going on the offensive against Pelosi in that ad. If Democrats win a narrow majority, then I suppose Pelosi will *have* to go, no? Too many Democrats will have made this pledge.

[Brittain33]

If Lamb somehow manages to win this, does anyone know if his district would be likely to become any more Democratic-leaning under court-imposed districts? He'd need all the help he can get to hold on again in 2018 and 2020.

I'm guessing he loses eastern Westmoreland County and gains parts of the southern Monongahela Valley in eastern Greene and Washington County and western Fayette County, and this would help him marginally. I don't think moving further into Allegheny is in the cards and that would make a real difference. A court-ordered map would look more like an enlarged version of the district Frank Mascara represented 20+ years ago.

[Brittain33]

I would rather win in a District where the Democrat actually counts as a vote to get Democrats in control of the speaker-ship after the midterms than a District where the Democrat is fine with forcing a power sharing agreement if the Democratic majority is narrow.

Wouldn't it more likely that Pelosi steps down as Dem leader? If it's close, Tim Ryan and others will smell blood and go in for the kill.

[Brittain33]

The critical question is whether this eclipses demon sheep in its awfulness or not.

[Brittain33]

Predictit has Saccone at 64c and Lamb at 40c.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3766/Which-party-will-win-the-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Pennsylvania's-18th-district

[Brittain33]

It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.

[Brittain33]

It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.

Indeed. But the game here is how many of them are going to stay home while energized Democrats go to the polls, like what happened in Virginia and Alabama.

Virginia doesn't really fit that description very well. Gillespie certainly got his voters to turn out. They just weren't nearly enough because there are more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia nowadays, and Democrats just turned out in full force.

No, turnout at the western part of the state was significantly down compared to NOVA.
Gillespie got roughly the same percentages as Trump but much fewer raw votes.

Yeah. Right now, this district looks like Virginia minus NoVa. That's my concern. I hope I'm proven wrong since it was easy in Virginia for Dems not to contest those parts of Virginia.

[Brittain33]

Politico has a 2nd Republican dog sweat article!

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/05/pennsylvania-republicans-special-election-389964

All I've read is the headline.

On edit: it's not a dog sweat article. It's a "here's how we sent the cavalry in because Saccone sucks" article including ancedotes of incredible canvassing in icy weather.

[Brittain33]

Words like "torture" and "thug" are a flashing yellow light for this thread to go off track from a discussion of this specific Congressional race to a very heated and emotional discussion of a marginally related topic. Let's try to stick to the specifics of this election and not get sidetracked into volatile issues.

[Brittain33]

Hey all,

I don't consider it the moderator's place to prevent discussion of relevant topics, so based on the response, I'm not going to stand in the way of discussions of torture as an issue if it is a point of disagreement between Saccone and Lamb.

My experience as a moderator is that discussions which get into enthusiasm for violence and vengeance against individuals, whether politicians, wannabe politicians, or classes of people, don't go well. This has happened with people like President Trump and Chelsea Manning and it just blows everything up and kills off other discussion. If we can avoid that fate and avoid overheated discussion, it won't get moderated.

[Brittain33]

It seems like Saccone has been heavier with expenses than most legislators in Pennsylvania, although I don't see anything illegal here.

https://theintercept.com/2018/02/01/rick-saccone-congress-pennsylvania/

[Brittain33]

\
So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?

Opposition to Obama and then Clinton, not actually standing for something. Now they're reaping the whirlwind.

[Brittain33]

Newest CLF ad up, it seems the GOP has decided to quit it with the Sheep references:

https://youtu.be/0KTO83fyz_M

You'd think watching that, that Lee Atwater was still alive making attack ads and we were still in the 80s. What's next...."Libruhl Conor Lamb was live when Willie Horton raped and killed"
S
The GOP is such a joke

So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?
Or, how did the GOP joke beat the Democrat joke in most of the swing states in 2016.
Or, how come the Democrat joke did not pass immigration reform in 2009 or 2010.

The actual joke may be that most of the public may not pay any attention to ads.

The GOP is finished. They aren't coming back from Trump. Lopsided control of state legislatures are a sign of an impending realignment, so enjoy this year. It will be the last we'll have to hear from the party that nominated a sexual assaulter with a 5 decade history of conning people.

This is what we were saying in 2016 too. Do not underestimate the stupidity and deplorability of Americans who knew that they were getting a sexual assaulter with a five-decade history of conning people and who fantasizes sleeping with his daughter when they elected him regardless. Democrats have to have a message other than Trump is a bad man.

I hope you're right, but I have very low expectations for this country after the atrocity that it committed in 2016. And don't forget that Trump's boss Vladimir will still be interfering with the midterms and trying to get more Republicans elected since they are the party that will abet him in destroying the country.  

Do we think Putin is interfering in PA-18? I don't know if we've seen any sign of it yet.

[Brittain33]

\
So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?

Opposition to Obama and then Clinton, not actually standing for something. Now they're reaping the whirlwind.

So, the Democrats will use the pendulum to swing back by being against Trump.

If you think Medicare for everyone will get you anywhere in the long run, just start explaing how you are  going to pay for it.

A major factor in Trump’s election was actually his immigration proposals.

This probably needs to go to a different threa.  But there were also Obama’s lies about Obamacare.  By the way did he ever heal the oceans?

Do you think the state of the oceans will be a major issue in the PA-18 special election? They are in a certain sense; the Democratic party's opposition to coal should hamper Lamb in this seat, I would think. Does anyone know how he is handling this issue gracefully since it has decimated the Dems in Appalachia?

[Brittain33]

Let’s say that with American torture the victim is still alive at the end. I agree that rmuch the evidence from torture is not valid. But some maybe.

Instead of torture Obama went full into killing targets with drones with lots of collateral damage to innocents.  Tell me how that is better than torture? I actually do not object to this process.  But if you object to things like water boarding in limited cases, you should be opposed to unlimited drone killings.

>ok, rescind your support donald trump, he doubled drone strickes

Can you read?  I said I did not object to the process.  I merely pointed out that if you are adamantly opposed to water boarding it seems you would be opposed to such indiscriminate killings with the collateral damage.

What are Saccone's and Lamb's positions on drone strikes in the PA-18 special election? Since both have relatively recent military service, they may have informed opinions.

[Brittain33]

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

[Brittain33]

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.

[Brittain33]

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

Ok, so with a different candidate we'd be running 16 points ahead of the district's PVI? Based on what? 

[Brittain33]

I am surprised Trump nixed campaigning in this district.