PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[GeorgiaModerate]

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I don't know whether to be happy that there's a poll coming, or unhappy because it's Gravis.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.

In VA-GOV, they consistently showed a close race (tied to a small Northam lead).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.

On the flip side the DCCC might be staying out on purpose so The GOP can't nationlize the race ala GA-06

An idea I've seen floated on Twitter is that the DCCC may be waiting to see what the final PA maps look like in a few days.  They might not want to invest a lot in trying to help Lamb win a seat that he'd be likely to lose in November (or on the flip side, might be an easier gain for the Democrats then).

[GeorgiaModerate]

"Social Security is going to go broke this year" - Saccone

And Saccone just admitted to not paying his workers minimum wage.

What is he smoking?  Isn't the current estimate for the trust fund to be depleted around 2035?

[GeorgiaModerate]

When is this election? The longer the delay, the more time has for Lamb to build coalitions. This Saccone guy seems like a complete tool/flop.

March 13.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This year is going to be a Blue Wave regardless of the result in this race.

Harry Enten:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

New poll just released, with Lamb up one.

@brd_polling
BREAKING: Our poll for #PA18 has been released

Conor Lamb (Democrat) 47% (+1)
Rick Saccone (Republican) 46%
Drew Gray Miller (Libertarian) 1%

I don't recognize the pollster, though. They seem new.

They did a VA-GOV poll a week before the election and had Northam+6: https://blumenthalresearchdaily.weebly.com/home/archives/10-2017

[GeorgiaModerate]

Apparently the BRD numbers might be fake:

https://twitter.com/rudnicknoah/status/969652630522880001

That's annoying.

Harry Enten seems to think it's fake: https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/969651144862691329

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson has a poll coming out today: https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/969585019470696448

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Sounds like Lamb is ahead in the Emerson poll.

Not necessarily.  It might show a small Saccone lead, assuming the tweet isn't a complete tease to begin with.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So much confusion in this thread
1. The BRD poll is completely fake/made-up
2. There is no Fox poll for now
3. Emerson is polling this Thursday-Saturday, and the poll is coming out Monday. So only 1/3 of the poll is done at this point.

Thanks for the summary.  Do we have any information as to when the pending Gravis poll is coming out?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Gravis poll will be released Tuesday:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there any other incoming polls for this district. The trend is definitely in Lamb favor if the election is 50/50 on election night then Lamb should squeak one out.

Gravis is supposed to release one tomorrow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

Oh how fun lol.

I wonder when we're finally going to get a quality pollster for this race. Monmouth's poll is coming out soon, but where the hell has Fox News been?

Does Fox News ever poll anything smaller than state-level races?  I don't think they polled the GA-6 special.  (The local Atlanta Fox station did, but that was using another firm.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The needle gives me anxiety.

That's not uncommon.  Lots of people have a fear of needles.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The needle is back to stab everyone in the heart

What's the needle?

Their live prediction forecast while returns are coming in.  See https://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president for an example.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You guys are starting to persuade me that Lamb may actually win this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There is a new poll going around from KG Polling that shows Lamb up 49-45.  However, G. Elliott Morris says this is a fake poll, put out by the same people behind BRD Research, apparently in an attempt to influence betting markets.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Conor Lamb (D-PA18 and 17)

Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We're supposedly due for snow here in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Any idea how, if it all, it could affect the election? To me it sounds like it would favor Saccone.

Wouldn't bad weather tend to help the candidate with the more enthusiastic supporters, which from reports so far seems more likely to be Lamb?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Conor Lamb (D-PA18 and 17)

Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.

Don't most states prohibit being on the ballot for multiple offices, unless one of them is President or Vice President?

Ah, good point.  Without such laws it would be an interesting idea.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Conor Lamb (D-PA18 and 17)

Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.

Don't most states prohibit being on the ballot for multiple offices, unless one of them is President or Vice President?

Ah, good point.  Without such laws it would be an interesting idea.

I meant that I endorse him for his current PA18 run and that I endorse him for his eventual PA17 run.

I got that.  It was just seeing it written that way that sent me off into a flight of fancy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't know why, but I am extremely anxious for this Monmouth poll...

Do we know when it will be released?