PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 203529 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: March 13, 2018, 07:09:18 PM »

I should be grading my students' exams.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2018, 07:24:40 PM »
538 has posted benchmarks for the 4 (3, really) relevant counties that make up the district, but I don't buy them. They are using their ad-hoc "75% of 2016, 25% of 2012" measure, which has no empirical basis whatsoever.

So instead, let me point to my own analysis of special election data so far, which suggests that 2012 margin is in fact a much better predictor of special election results so far. Using the results from those analysis, I come up with these benchmarks for a tied race:
- Allegheny: D+9
- Westmoreland: R+9
- Washington: R+2
- Greene: R+10

Obviously this is a highly imprecise analysis, so I wouldn't vouch for these numbers, but I'd definitely trust them over 538's, for what it's worth.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2018, 07:33:33 PM »
Quote from: Representative-Elect politicalmasta73 on March 13, 2018, 07:27:21 PM
Quote from: A Strange Reflection on March 13, 2018, 07:24:40 PM
538 has posted benchmarks for the 4 (3, really) relevant counties that make up the district, but I don't buy them. They are using their ad-hoc "75% of 2016, 25% of 2012" measure, which has no empirical basis whatsoever.

So instead, let me point to my own analysis of special election data so far, which suggests that 2012 margin is in fact a much better predictor of special election results so far. Using the results from those analysis, I come up with these benchmarks for a tied race:
- Allegheny: D+9
- Westmoreland: R+9
- Washington: R+2
- Greene: R+10

Obviously this is a highly imprecise analysis, so I wouldn't vouch for these numbers, but I'd definitely trust them over 538's, for what it's worth.
nah, dems need a better margn in allegheny

Using a slightly different method, I get D+11 in Allegheny, R+11 in Westmoreland, and R+12 in Greene (still R+2 in Washington). Still nowhere near 538's numbers.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2018, 07:40:10 PM »
Lamb doing VERY well in Allegheny so far... I might have to eat crow on my benchmarks.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2018, 07:44:37 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on March 13, 2018, 07:41:38 PM

This should be noted and not lost in the thread.

Why so late??
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2018, 07:55:33 PM »
If Lamb actually wins Washington and keeps his margin steady in Allegheny, it's over.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2018, 08:06:01 PM »
OK wtf is going on
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2018, 08:11:21 PM »
Back to tossup. I have no clue what's going on.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2018, 08:15:31 PM »
Lamb ahead 15 points in Allegheny, Saccone up 16 in Greene. Those are only two we have enough data on right now.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2018, 08:24:14 PM »
Well f**k you Westmoreland county.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2018, 08:40:57 PM »
Well, Greene is finished and Allegheny is at 85%. It all comes down to Washington and Westmoreland.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2018, 08:44:48 PM »
Washington now at 75%, Lamb still up 2.6.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2018, 08:54:21 PM »
DOWN TO 700 VOTES
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2018, 08:56:40 PM »
well f**k
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2018, 09:00:03 PM »
This is gonna be close.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2018, 10:13:08 PM »
Well this is a nailbiter.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2018, 11:23:13 PM »
Yeah, Lamb has this.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2018, 12:53:18 AM »
Are we ever getting those absentee results from Washington County??
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #18 on: March 16, 2018, 01:52:50 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on March 16, 2018, 12:43:06 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on March 15, 2018, 01:53:17 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on March 15, 2018, 01:03:43 PM
A few months ago, when Murphy resigned and the special election was called, I remember Sean Trende tweeting that "here is another chance for the Democrats to lose another race by 5-6 points and claim moral victory afterwards".

I guess things went a little differently than he anticipated.

To be fair, at that time it looked like a long shot.

Alabama senate looked like a no shot last August.
Yet Bill effing Kristol predicted that Jones would win.

And that was a moronic prediction in the context.

I really don't give a sh*t if someone made a prediction that made no sense at the time but turned out to be "right" just because of unforeseeable developments.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #19 on: March 16, 2018, 11:45:27 PM »

Whatever, same old story. Didn't help Roy Moore in Alabama and it won't help Saccone here.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #20 on: March 18, 2018, 02:45:49 PM »
Quote from: Filuwaúrdjan on March 18, 2018, 02:20:58 PM
Note that the parts of new PA-14 not in the existing PA-18 are, under normal circumstances at least, considerably more D than the parts in the present PA-18. Worth seriously contesting for the Ds, no matter how badly Clinton bombed there.

I mean it's not just Clinton - Obama lost the district by 18 points in 2012. Sure, there are districts Obama lost by 15-20 points that can still be won by the right Democrat at the right time (especially in Appalachia), but it's not exactly a prime target. If Democrats want to make a play for a deeply WWC district in Pennsylvania, PA-16 would be a much better choice.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #21 on: March 18, 2018, 02:50:40 PM »
Quote from: Southern Delegate TimTurner on March 18, 2018, 02:47:11 PM
Quote from: A Strange Reflection on March 18, 2018, 02:45:49 PM
Quote from: Filuwaúrdjan on March 18, 2018, 02:20:58 PM
Note that the parts of new PA-14 not in the existing PA-18 are, under normal circumstances at least, considerably more D than the parts in the present PA-18. Worth seriously contesting for the Ds, no matter how badly Clinton bombed there.

I mean it's not just Clinton - Obama lost the district by 18 points in 2012. Sure, there are districts Obama lost by 15-20 points that can still be won by the right Democrat at the right time (especially in Appalachia), but it's not exactly a prime target. If Democrats want to make a play for a deeply WWC district in Pennsylvania, PA-16 would be a much better choice.
It includes all of Fayette County, which Wolf won in 2014.

He still lost Westmoreland by 14 points, despite being ahead by 10 statewide.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #22 on: March 18, 2018, 02:55:01 PM »
Quote from: Southern Delegate TimTurner on March 18, 2018, 02:52:25 PM
Quote from: A Strange Reflection on March 18, 2018, 02:50:40 PM
Quote from: Southern Delegate TimTurner on March 18, 2018, 02:47:11 PM
Quote from: A Strange Reflection on March 18, 2018, 02:45:49 PM
Quote from: Filuwaúrdjan on March 18, 2018, 02:20:58 PM
Note that the parts of new PA-14 not in the existing PA-18 are, under normal circumstances at least, considerably more D than the parts in the present PA-18. Worth seriously contesting for the Ds, no matter how badly Clinton bombed there.

I mean it's not just Clinton - Obama lost the district by 18 points in 2012. Sure, there are districts Obama lost by 15-20 points that can still be won by the right Democrat at the right time (especially in Appalachia), but it's not exactly a prime target. If Democrats want to make a play for a deeply WWC district in Pennsylvania, PA-16 would be a much better choice.
It includes all of Fayette County, which Wolf won in 2014.

He still lost Westmoreland by 14 points, despite being ahead by 10 statewide.
Wait, are we on the same page here? I am talking about new PA-14.

...yes? The new PA-14 includes almost all of Westmoreland County.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #23 on: March 20, 2018, 03:01:55 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 20, 2018, 11:53:22 AM


DOMINATING
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A               N
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GNITANIMOD
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