PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Gass3268]

Something is happening here:

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[Gass3268]

Saccone only up 3

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Source

[Gass3268]

Saccone only up 3

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Source

No excuse for the DCCC not to get involved then.

Quietly, though. Overnationalization is what killed Ossoff, and if that happens here, in an anti establishment, populist district, the blowback could be worse.

They did it right in Alabama.

[Gass3268]

I doubt Lamb wins this given how hard the GOP is investing in this seat.

Agreed, but you can just smell the fear here and it's wonderful.

[Gass3268]

Interesting note, but I read a tweet that the PA GOP moved Lamb's home into Doyle's PA-14 in their redraw map.

[Gass3268]

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Trump being 6 points above water in a district he won by 19 is a pretty terrible result.

And Casey only being down 7 is amazing.

[Gass3268]

Before anyone comes in here to freak out about the Lamb campaign getting outspent 2-1 on TV ads:

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Candidates get better rates than outside groups for ads.

[Gass3268]

Lamb is obviously favored, but the more national attention this race draws, the more likely a Saccone victory becomes. Still, I think Lamb wins by 2.

Bummer for Lamb that PA is one of the worst states for early voting.

[Gass3268]

The momentum seems to be with Lamb... but this is a total Tossup. I’ll say Lamb+1, but I have little confidence in this prediction

By the way,
Am I the only one who doesn't really care about this special election? I mean, no matter the result Lamb will run in Rothfus' district.

I imagine there would be a slight advantage for Lamb taking on Rothfus as a fellow incumbent. Plus it would probably help push some more Congressional Republicans to retirement.

[Gass3268]

This politico article is yummy -> https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/republicans-pennsylvania-special-election-445221

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Republicans have done this for almost every special election over the past 10 years. They are excellent at setting expectations.

Here is an amazing example of this brought forward by Ex Rep. David Jolly.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, this poll is questionable:

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That being said the % with a college degree in PA-18 is higher than the national average, which is contrary to what folks would imagine with this district, and I imagine folks with a college degree are more like to turnout to vote in a special election.

[Gass3268]

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers . I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.

Census says 37%, with it being a special election I could see that number get close to around 50%.

[Gass3268]

When is that Monmouth poll gonna drop?

I'm going to guess Monday.

[Gass3268]

However:

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/972174335413833729

Essentially becase Saccone can't raise any money on his own, Lamb is able to stay close because direct candidate spending gets better rates than outside groups.

[Gass3268]

Brutal ad hitting Saccone on opioids with his own words

[Gass3268]

The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

/triggered

[Gass3268]

There seems to be a coordinated effort to massively lower expectation for Saccone to make a probable win as a victory for them in the media’s eyes. ‘Underdog Saccone wins hotly contested Congressional race’ that should have never been competitive.

This is a Republican speciality. They are the best at playing the media to manage exceptions.

[Gass3268]

The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

/triggered

The needle was our savior in Alabama tho

I'm going to need like 10 more Alabama's before I can feel comfortable again with the needle.

[Gass3268]

Trump is an awful surrogate. So far he's mentioned Chuck Todd and Lester Holt just as much as Rick Saccone.

[Gass3268]

Trump is currently speaking in Moon Township, Pennsylvania...

2016 Results:

5589 HRC   (42.7%)   6894 DJT   (52.7%)   8.1% of Allegheny County CD-18 2016 Pres Votes

This is also where Lamb and Biden had their rally at Robert Morris University.

Also Trump is now attacking Oprah.

[Gass3268]

Trump now attacking Ronald Reagan on trade.

[Gass3268]

There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

[Gass3268]

There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll. He also gave the heads up on that one recent Monmouth poll that was D+2.

Your reputation as a valuable Atlas poster is riding on this being true! /s

[Gass3268]

There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll. He also gave the heads up on that one recent Monmouth poll that was D+2.

Your reputation as a valuable Atlas poster is riding on this being true! /s

It's this same guy:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279249.msg5952465#msg5952465

It ended up being the Fox News poll.

So it's actually more on him.

Awesome!

Also Trump is doing a great job setting expectations:

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[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/972898568129470464