Supremely hottake:
- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.
Though I would argue that a Lamb win would make it significantly harder for Republicans to argue against the odds of a Democratic takeover.
This is an exceptional area, having such a Democratic heritage that it was both +20 Mondale in 1984 and +40 Trump in 2016. A Lamb win would boost candidates like Ojeda and the Dems running in the Obama-Trump Upstate NY districts significantly, but it says next to nothing about e.g. the Romney-Clinton CDs.
That having been said, if they are winning back this kind of seat, there is an all Midwest/Rust Belt path to a Dem House majority out there.