PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:07:08 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 197774 times)
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« on: February 02, 2018, 07:56:58 AM »

It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.

Indeed. But the game here is how many of them are going to stay home while energized Democrats go to the polls, like what happened in Virginia and Alabama.

Virginia doesn't really fit that description very well. Gillespie certainly got his voters to turn out. They just weren't nearly enough because there are more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia nowadays, and Democrats just turned out in full force.

No, turnout at the western part of the state was significantly down compared to NOVA.
Gillespie got roughly the same percentages as Trump but much fewer raw votes.

I looked at a sample of 4 counties in the far west of the state and 2017 turnout there was about half of 2016 and on par with 2013. Given population growth and the focus on the race I'd say that indicates weak turnout.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2018, 10:49:30 AM »

My vague reading would be that your typical Trump Democrat (if we are to annoy people by throwing around such terms) is exactly the kind of person who cares more for keeping their own guns than about some principles regarding other peoples' babies.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2018, 10:01:51 AM »

Is this the first Emerson poll out of this race? Emerson isn't great but if anything haven't they tended to lean R?
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2018, 10:18:47 AM »

I don't think that's right @Oryx. The red-republicans, blue-democrats color scheme was in use during 90s election coverage.

My understanding is that the norm was to use blue for the incumbent party. So Democrats were blue in 1996 and 2000, GOP was blue in the 80s.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.023 seconds with 11 queries.