PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 194949 times)
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« on: January 08, 2018, 12:42:09 AM »

More or less "normal" numbers for Appalachia. It may be less admiring of Trump then year ago, but still of rather low opinion about Democratic party as it is.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2018, 01:43:28 PM »

^ Of course. But Pittsburgh itself is not in the district. And the southernmost part of Allegheny county (which is in 18th), is, probably, less Democratic then Pittsburgh. In addition - Trump won Washington county (most of which is in 18th) with 60%, Westmoreland county (large part of which is in 18th too) with 63.5%, and relatively small Greene county (also mostly in 18th) with 68.5%. I can easily believe that Trump's popularity decreased since November 2016, but hardly SO much.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2018, 01:23:45 AM »

I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.
Not SouthWest Pennsylvania.

Oh yes. Especially here.
Um last I checked the Appalachia region was trump’s strongest region and still the region where he has 60+ Approval ratings.

I think somebody from PA named “PittsburgSteel” knows his corner of the country better than you

lol. If you're familiar with the poster Bandit from Kentucky, you'd see what a foolish statement that was.

Yeah. Being "local" is a plus, of course, but it doesn't neccessary mean being objective and knowledgeable...
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2018, 02:27:46 AM »

I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.

The Gravis poll has Trump’s approval at 54% - 39% in the 18th among likely voters.

Trump carried the District 58.1% to 38.5%.

Of course Gravis likely voter sample may not include enough energized Democrat voters.

Yes. That's why see as most likely Republican win in high single digits (7-9%), instead of 15-20. But still - rather solid win.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2018, 01:24:57 AM »

The thing is, you run ads showing Trump promising to bring these jobs back on the backdrop of this mine closure. Then what? Lamb promises to bring the jobs back? Why would voters believe him after just being burned? henster is right in that the focus should be on bringing in new industries and tech to the area but would the people who live there even want that?

That's exactly the problem: they want jobs, but not ANY jobs, if i understood correctly. They don't want to undergo retraining, and then - be employed in "green technologies" or IT area. They want COAL jobs, they are accustomed to, and they already have enough skills to do (right now). Who can give them THAT?Huh
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2018, 02:08:39 AM »

The thing is, you run ads showing Trump promising to bring these jobs back on the backdrop of this mine closure. Then what? Lamb promises to bring the jobs back? Why would voters believe him after just being burned? henster is right in that the focus should be on bringing in new industries and tech to the area but would the people who live there even want that?

That's exactly the problem: they want jobs, but not ANY jobs, if i understood correctly. They don't want to undergo retraining, and then - be employed in "green technologies" or IT area. They want COAL jobs, they are accustomed to, and they already have enough skills to do (right now). Who can give them THAT?Huh

No one. The world is changing. If they don't want to change with it, they will be left behind or be forced to move away.

In long-term perspective - of course. But for now - they are still there, still voting, and still angry. Possibly - that's one of the reasons why Appalachia now votes the way it does.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #6 on: January 18, 2018, 12:02:28 AM »

New York Times says internal polls on both sides report "single-digit race," confirms Republican dog sweat.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/17/us/politics/trump-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html?_r=0

I still believe Republicans will successfully nationalize this and eke out a win even though Saccone sucks and Lamb is Jesus with dimples.

I can believe in single-digit race here, but, most likely, with Republican advantage (say, +7-8)...
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2018, 02:59:02 AM »

If Conor Lamb was the candidate in GA-06 he would've won handily, way better in quality. Thinking back I actually think Ossoff was a pretty bad candidate.

I expressed doubts about his candidacy from the very beginning. But most of Democrats and supporers (even on Atlas) loved him by reasons that remain unclear to me, and almost silenced any critics. Result? Well-known.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2018, 03:17:51 AM »

Change my early prediction (Saccone by single digits) to pure tossup.
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