PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[windjammer]

Badger,
Lamb now lives in the new Rothfus' district. It ils obvious he will run there and he won't be portrayed as a carpetbagger as he now lives there.

[windjammer]

The momentum seems to be with Lamb... but this is a total Tossup. I’ll say Lamb+1, but I have little confidence in this prediction

By the way,
Am I the only one who doesn't really care about this special election? I mean, no matter the result Lamb will run in Rothfus' district.

[windjammer]

I still think Saccone wins. I suppose the undecided are heavily conservative.

[windjammer]

Well,
I mean I predicted Roy Moore winning as well. My predictions tend to take into account too much the partisan bias of the districts.

[windjammer]

Brutal ad hitting Saccone on opioids with his own words

Conor Lamb is amazing. I really really really hope he wins this race. I know he will challenge Rothfus, win or loses but winning this race will make the race in the 17th easier for him. I want him to be our Senator one day.

I mean,
I mean, the PA dem branch isn't particularly strong and there will be an open seat in 2022.

[windjammer]

I still think Saccone wins, Lamb isn't at 50% and I suspect the undecideds are heavily gop.

[windjammer]

Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?

Hochul in 2011, and Bill Owens in 2009