1968: Bobby Kennedy alive

[johnpressman]

Just saw this topic.  I am amazed at the number of people who believe that, had RFK lived, he would have won the 1968 Democratic Party Presidential Nomination and the subsequent election.  This almost seems like a forgone conclusion to alternative history buffs.

The Presidential nominating process was much different in 1968.  There were few primaries, and many were just beauty contests, not binding the delegates to vote for the winner.  Most states' delegations were handpicked by the party leaders or by party-controlled caucuses.  RFK was not liked or accepted by the Democratic Party rank and file, further diminishing what small chance he might have to gain a majority of the delegates' votes.  In addition, outgoing President Lyndon Johnson hated Kennedy and put all his resources and influence to make certain that his Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, was nominated.  Humphrey had a majority of the delegates commited to him through LBJ's machinations even before he announced his candidacy.  It was an uphill battle for RFK and McCarthy's to convince delegates pledged to Humphrey to switch to them.

America was a very different place in 1968.  The rise in crime, race riots in many major cities, and the youth counterculture had set many Americans on edge.  Nixon's  appeal to the "Silent Majority" hit America where it lived.  The student antiwar protesters (most of whom couldn't vote anyway in 1968)  made a lot of noise but were heavily outnumbered by the older, family-oriented Americans of 1968 who were repulsed by what they saw on TV or read in the newspapers.  In the final analysis, 57% of the voters of that year picked either Nixon and Wallace, two right-of-center candidates who supported continuing the war in Vietnam.

[johnpressman]

I don't understand why you feel that RFK was a social conservative.  Both RFK and Eugene McCarthy's support by a young, vocal (and mostly under 21 and unable to vote) minority is preciesly what made them unappetizing to the majority of Americans in 1968.  Opposition to the Vietnam War in 1968 was still seen as unpatriotic by the majority of  over-21 Americans in 1968.  The average American perceived RFK and McCarthy as aligned with the "hippies" and the Black Nationalists.  Richard Nixon was the perfect candidate for 1968.  Being a man of the 1950's, he represented a return to a more stable, staus-quo era.

In 1968, RFK and McCarthy had the difficult task of prying away delegates that were already pledged to Humphrey.  If somehow RFK would have won the nomination, he would have led a badly fractured party with LBJ doing everything possible to undermine his candidacy.  Nixon adds TX to his electoral vote total and increases his winning margins in the Southern and Border States.