Cruz..
He played the cards almost the same way Obama did in '08. Whereas Rubio turned out to be a paper tiger on the ground game. All the establishment support might have gotten him to Hillary levels in '08, but no way does Cruz lose the delegate lead.
Cruz would've lost the critical Midwest to Hillary though.
Cruz was running the Obama '08 campaign. Rubio was running an Edwards '08 campaign. Jeb was the Hillary '08 until Trump bizarrely sort of took Jeb's place. If you look at the primary polling data, Trump consistently won on the backs of moderate republicans and during the primaries in general many were making parallels between Trump's disorganized campaign and Clinton's '08 campaign. Trump won as the Edwards (Rubio) vote didn't consolidate for Obama (Cruz). Edwards dropped out early and endorsed Obama.
Actually, that's even better put.