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  MO-Remington Research (R): Hawley +4
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Author Topic: MO-Remington Research (R): Hawley +4  (Read 2857 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: January 08, 2018, 02:38:43 pm »

Josh Hawley (R) - 49%
Claire McCaskill (D) - 45%
Undecided - 6%

Trump approval: 50-44 (+6)

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https://www.scribd.com/document/368677853/MO-Sen-Remington-Research-R-for-the-MO-Scout-Jan-2018
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2018, 02:42:07 pm »

Josh Hawley (R) - 49%
Claire McCaskill (D) - 45%
Undecided - 6%

Trump approval: 50-44 (+6)

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https://www.scribd.com/document/368677853/MO-Sen-Remington-Research-R-for-the-MO-Scout-Jan-2018

These Remington polls has been so boring... literally has had the same numbers for 8 months.
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jimmie
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« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2018, 02:43:19 pm »
« Edited: January 08, 2018, 02:48:41 pm by Jimmie »

She is stuck at 45%.

McCaskill has several bad astrological transits on election night and I have no confirmed birth time. I think she could lose.

Now I doubt 25% of the electorate will be 70+ in 2018 midterms. There may be a slight biased against McCaskill in this poll.


The only thing that can be agreed on is that she will not be blanched.

Edit: Looks like auditors contest will be a close call but too early to tell for a lower profile contest. Democrats better hope they can win one of these contests.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2018, 02:46:25 pm »

She is stuck at 45%.

McCaskill has several bad transits on election night. I think she will lose.

Blanche Lincoln was consistently in the mid 30s at this time in 2010.

McCaskill will have a competitive race.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2018, 03:04:30 pm »

There isn't a 2014 MO exit poll as far as I know, so the most recent comparison for demographics is the 2016 exit poll, which had:

Gender: 53% Female, 47% Male
Race: 79% White, 14% Black, 7% Other
Party ID: 39% Republicans, 35% Democrats, 27% Independents
Age: 18% 18-29, 16% 30-39, 18% 40-49, 31% 50-64, and 17% 65+

This poll's demographics are:

Gender: 53% Female, 47% Male
Race: 87% White, 9% Black, 4% Other
Party ID: 44% Republicans, 35% Democrats, 21% Nonpartisans
Age: 7% 18-29, 12% 30-39, 13% 40-49, 43% 50-69, and 25% 70+
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2018, 03:18:52 pm »

Yep. McCaskill will come close, but there doesn't seem to be enough Democrats left in the state for her to win.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2018, 03:21:36 pm »

Good sign for Mccaskill as this poll is definitely republican leaning (see Castro's poll)
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King Lear
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« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2018, 03:22:06 pm »

This proves my Likely R rating for this race, unfortunately their is no realistic scenario where Mcckaskill pulls it out.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2018, 03:27:04 pm »

There isn't a 2014 MO exit poll as far as I know, so the most recent comparison for demographics is the 2016 exit poll, which had:

Gender: 53% Female, 47% Male
Race: 79% White, 14% Black, 7% Other
Party ID: 39% Republicans, 35% Democrats, 27% Independents
Age: 18% 18-29, 16% 30-39, 18% 40-49, 31% 50-64, and 17% 65+

This poll's demographics are:

Gender: 53% Female, 47% Male
Race: 87% White, 9% Black, 4% Other
Party ID: 44% Republicans, 35% Democrats, 21% Nonpartisans
Age: 7% 18-29, 12% 30-39, 13% 40-49, 43% 50-69, and 25% 70+

Lol, moving this from Toss-Up to Lean D.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #9 on: January 08, 2018, 03:29:17 pm »

Wow, solid base for C-Mac. Looks like a few phone calls to Sloppy Steve will do the trick here. Tilt D.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2018, 03:35:26 pm »

With this pollsterís well known lean, indicates what we all suspect: a Tossup race
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#Kavanaugh For Prison
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« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2018, 03:41:57 pm »

It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.
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#Kavanaugh For Prison
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« Reply #12 on: January 08, 2018, 03:50:16 pm »

By my calculations, Claire McCaskill is leading by 6% (by the most conservative estimations possible) in this poll when this poll is broken down by demographics and put back together with demographics that are more reflective of the likely vote in 2018.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #13 on: January 08, 2018, 03:54:46 pm »

It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.

This poll performed well in the 2016 Senate Race ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250717.0) and any poll with a positive Trump approval is bad for McCaskill. She's not doomed, but taking a poll showing her trailing as further justification for your Safe D rating  (which should mean she'll win even if everything that could possibly go wrong does) makes little sense.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2018, 03:57:47 pm »

I don't foresee 2018 being substantially whiter than 2016. Virginia and Alabama should be proof of that.
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cvparty
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« Reply #15 on: January 08, 2018, 03:58:35 pm »

This proves my Likely R rating for this race, unfortunately their is no realistic scenario where Mcckaskill pulls it out.
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Pollster
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« Reply #16 on: January 08, 2018, 04:09:01 pm »

Considerably good results for McCaskill considering the demographic makeup of the poll was arranged to favor Hawley. If anything, this poll does a good job at showing McCaskill's floor, which is what is most important to be looking at this early.
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Pollster
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« Reply #17 on: January 08, 2018, 04:13:41 pm »

Also a strong sign for McCaskill is that even with a favorable sample, Trump is only at +6 approval.

Missouri is a fairly evenly divided swing state (2016 electorate was only R+5) but Trump is a strong fit for the state, so this number is something.
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Senator Haslam2020
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« Reply #18 on: January 08, 2018, 04:19:08 pm »

She is stuck at 45%.

McCaskill has several bad astrological transits on election night and I have no confirmed birth time. I think she could lose.

Now I doubt 25% of the electorate will be 70+ in 2018 midterms. There may be a slight biased against McCaskill in this poll.


The only thing that can be agreed on is that she will not be blanched.

Edit: Looks like auditors contest will be a close call but too early to tell for a lower profile contest. Democrats better hope they can win one of these contests.

Bruh what youíre doin is actually pretty chill. Like itís interesting asf. Could you do the Cruz vs OíRourke race? Maybe Bredesen vs Blackburn?

But with the actual MO Senate race, I think Hawley wins this. I believe itíll be a democratic wave year but I think itíll be close in Missouri.
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jimmie
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« Reply #19 on: January 08, 2018, 04:26:54 pm »

Cruz by single digits. Yes i did look into that contest.

Tennessee I have not yet.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #20 on: January 08, 2018, 04:28:20 pm »

Great poll!
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #21 on: January 08, 2018, 05:03:44 pm »

Agreed with everyone who says it's still a toss-up. Looking at the demographics, this is about where I'd expect this race to be.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #22 on: January 08, 2018, 06:33:38 pm »
« Edited: January 08, 2018, 06:36:19 pm by Devout Centrist »

I can guarantee you that McCaskill will lose if the electorate is 87% white.

However, if itís in the low 80ís, she has a good shot. Anything below 80 and Iíd be pretty optimistic about her chances.

It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.

This poll performed well in the 2016 Senate Race ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250717.0) and any poll with a positive Trump approval is bad for McCaskill. She's not doomed, but taking a poll showing her trailing as further justification for your Safe D rating  (which should mean she'll win even if everything that could possibly go wrong does) makes little sense.
Trafalgar.jpg
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Keep cool-idge
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« Reply #23 on: January 08, 2018, 07:09:02 pm »

It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.

This poll performed well in the 2016 Senate Race ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250717.0) and any poll with a positive Trump approval is bad for McCaskill. She's not doomed, but taking a poll showing her trailing as further justification for your Safe D rating  (which should mean she'll win even if everything that could possibly go wrong does) makes little sense.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #24 on: January 08, 2018, 07:18:57 pm »

1. Favorite ≠ Safe

2. Some pollsters may be lucky, but not necessarily good. Trafalgar and Remington may have biases that can overlap with aggregate polling errors to create the illusion of accuracy, but a history of success could be undermined as soon as there is a race where the polling error goes in favor of the Democrat. From what I know of these pollsters, they were good when the Republican outperformed expectations, but bad when the Democrat did.
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