I can guarantee you that McCaskill will lose if the electorate is 87% white.
However, if it’s in the low 80’s, she has a good shot. Anything below 80 and I’d be pretty optimistic about her chances.
It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.
This poll performed well in the 2016 Senate Race ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250717.0) and any poll with a positive Trump approval is bad for McCaskill. She's not doomed, but taking a poll showing her trailing as further justification for your Safe D rating (which should mean she'll win even if everything that could possibly go wrong does) makes little sense.
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