West Virginia

[I’m not Stu]

How will WV trend? The Trump administration isn't helping coal miners. Trump will put the coal miners out of business.

[RINO Tom]

I went with fairly stable.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Given Trump's approval ratings, his extreme over-performance there in 2016, and the fact that Hillary Clinton was just about the worst possible Democrat for West Virginia, I think it trends and swings D in 2020 - even if only slightly.

[PoliticalShelter]

On the one hand West Virgnia (and more broadly Appalachia) is probably Trump's "core" region, and probably the region where his support will be the last place to fall.

On the other hand, the GOP has pretty much maxed out the state and West Virginia strikes me as a state where being the incumbent is a slight disadvantage.

Overall I would say fairly stable.

[Dr. MB]

We won't see a huge swing in either direction. A small swing D, maybe 5 percentage points at the most.

[TML]

Maybe trend D, but not nearly enough to flip the state (at best, only a handful of counties may flip).

[PragmaticPopulist]

I think it will trend D, albeit only a little. I'm almost certain that Trump hit a ceiling there in 2016, and there are a few counties there where the demographics would suggest a swing towards Democrats, such as Monogalia, Jefferson, and Kanawha.

[I’m not Stu]

I think it will trend D, albeit only a little. I'm almost certain that Trump hit a ceiling there in 2016, and there are a few counties there where the demographics would suggest a swing towards Democrats, such as Monogalia, Jefferson, and Kanawha.

I think a slight D trend is possible. Trump might put coal miners out of business.

[Cokeland Saxton]

West Virginia is already basically dead.

[Sir Mohamed]

Given Trump's approval ratings, his extreme over-performance there in 2016, and the fact that Hillary Clinton was just about the worst possible Democrat for West Virginia, I think it trends and swings D in 2020 - even if only slightly.

This.

It is really stunning how fast the state transferred.

[BlueDogs2020]

I honestly don't think Democrats are doomed in West Virginia completely. Their vote mostly depends of one issue: COAL! If Hillary was a little bit less liberal, campaigned there, and had not made the coal comments it would have been much closer.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I honestly don't think Democrats are doomed in West Virginia completely. Their vote mostly depends of one issue: COAL! If Hillary was a little bit less liberal, campaigned there, and had not made the coal comments it would have been much closer.

In that case, maybe she only loses West Virginia by 15-20% but loses the NPV by 5-6%.

[henster]

I think the right kind of Dem can crack 40% there or more. Someone like Jason Kander would be a perfect fit for states like WV.

[Skill and Chance]

It likely swings more R.  >70% Trump next time.

[AtorBoltox]

Dems will probably get a dead cat bounce in 2020

[IceSpear]

Dems will probably get a dead cat bounce in 2020

People said the same thing in 2013.

[RINO Tom]

Dems will probably get a dead cat bounce in 2020

People said the same thing in 2013.

Almost no one thought Trump would be the Republican nominee, though.  I think it is highly unlikely an unpopular President Trump that loses re-election (my guess) makes a gain in WV, but I suppose he could.  There will always be SOME people who vote Democrat in every red state, and I think WV Dems might have hit their floor (at least at the Presidential level), but who knows?  I have been wrong before and don't care anywhere near enough about this stuff to spend hours analyzing every trend.

[Horus]

1-2 points towards Trump.

[henster]

Old poll but this one had his JA in WV at 59/36, and Obama got 35% in '12 so I'd say something like 61/36 is likely.

https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/10/west-virginia-voters-becoming-more-critical-trump-maryland-support-falls-33-percent/

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

It should keep trending R. This is bigger than just Trump or just coal. Certainly the matchup of a populist Trump against Hillary "we're going to put a lot of coal miners out of work" Clinton was terrible for democrats, but WV has been shifting to the right for a while now, has no major cities, and has a 90% white and heavily working class electorate, all of which says it should get more republican.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

It should keep trending R. This is bigger than just Trump or just coal. Certainly the matchup of a populist Trump against Hillary "we're going to put a lot of coal miners out of work" Clinton was terrible for democrats, but WV has been shifting to the right for a while now, has no major cities, and has a 90% white and heavily working class electorate, all of which says it should get more republican.

I don't see how it can get more Republican. I highly doubt we're going to see a Republican get 75% or 80% in West Virginia anytime soon.

[Nyssus]

We won't see a huge swing in either direction. A small swing D, maybe 5 percentage points at the most.