NJ-SEN Megathread: Pharma CEO considers Menendez challenge

[Rhenna]

Race has always been Likely D but closer to Lean for me.

[BudgieForce]

Hugin has been aggressively running positive ads here in NJ, particularly on local networks, and I've yet to see Menendez fire back. His name ID has surely risen, it would be great to see some new polling of this race.

https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2018/05/25/poll-menendez-lead-narrows-to-just-4-points-over-gop-foe-hugin-436741

48% undecided...

Not sure what the polling department over at FDU is smoking but I would like some.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hugin has been aggressively running positive ads here in NJ, particularly on local networks, and I've yet to see Menendez fire back. His name ID has surely risen, it would be great to see some new polling of this race.

I have been seeing the ads also. It's interesting how he barely acknowledges that he is a Republican. Contrast that to the nightmare that is the GOP primary fight here in NJ-05 to see which candidate can out-Trump the other (even though the district voted for Trump by only 1%). I still doubt that Menendez is in any danger though.

[RedPrometheus]

But isn't it possible that turnout for Menendez will be quite low? And even if Republicans aren't that motivated, wouldn't independents probably vote against him?

[hurricanehink]

With all of the enthusiasm for House candidates this fall (Democrats hoping to flip the chamber) I wonder if the Congressional races will drag Menendez over the line, even if he isn’t too personally popular.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm sorry, who?

[LabourJersey]

With all of the enthusiasm for House candidates this fall (Democrats hoping to flip the chamber) I wonder if the Congressional races will drag Menendez over the line, even if he isn’t too personally popular.

Wondering if the opposite will happen – Menendez could barely win on the backs of the urban centers while dragging down Sherrill and Malinowski enough to cost them the seats.

I don't buy that. Virtually every Dem I know is excited to vote for House candidates, even though many dislike Menendez (I have not met a single defender of the guy).

 This may affect districts such as Payne's, Sire's and Pascrell's, but I don't see Menendez dampering the very real enthusiam you see in NJ-11, NJ-07, NJ-02 and NJ-03

[Progressive Pessimist]

With all of the enthusiasm for House candidates this fall (Democrats hoping to flip the chamber) I wonder if the Congressional races will drag Menendez over the line, even if he isn’t too personally popular.

Wondering if the opposite will happen – Menendez could barely win on the backs of the urban centers while dragging down Sherrill and Malinowski enough to cost them the seats.

I don't buy that. Virtually every Dem I know is excited to vote for House candidates, even though many dislike Menendez (I have not met a single defender of the guy).

 This may affect districts such as Payne's, Sire's and Pascrell's, but I don't see Menendez dampering the very real enthusiam you see in NJ-11, NJ-07, NJ-02 and NJ-03

I sure hope not. That's really my biggest worry with Menendez even in spite of still thinking that he will win in the end. And to an extent I guess I'm a reluctant defender of his, but it's more out of an effort to keep Democrat numbers in the Senate than it is excusing him.

[Pollster]

Worth noting that, with Carper's primary over and only Whitehouse's remaining, Menendez was the weakest Dem incumbent in a partisan primary this year.

[GreatTailedGrackle]

I have been thinking about this race a lot recently.  The Kavanaugh hearings flipped my position on Menendez.  (Well, it flipped my position on his election; he is still my least-favorite sitting Senator.)  I have gone from him being the Senate candidate I most wanted to watch lose, to being horrified that he might actually lose.  The problem is, it also reminds me of the MA 2010 special election, which the best election I have ever participated in, except that I'm now rooting for the awful one.

Of course Hugin and Scott Brown are very similar, being both near-unknowns (at the time) who are also socially liberal(ish) Northeastern Republicans with a chance of actually winning, which is pretty much my favorite kind of general election candidate to vote for.

And like Coakley, Menendez is a deeply flawed candidate. I have been trying to decide which is worse, ever since last Thursday.   Menendez used his political influence to protect a friend and campaign donor.  This friend, in the process of defrauding the government, accidentally blinded multiple old people.  He also issued what sounded like a thinly-veiled threat to make all who opposed him pay.  Coakley fought hard to keep two keep at least two men in prison after the exculpatory evidence became overwhelming, and yet at the same time refused to prosecute a politically-connected police officer who raped his daughter with a hot curling iron until public outcry drew attention to the issue.

When Menendez insisted that he helped his friend because he was a friend and not a donor, my position was that it didn't matter.  But when I compare it to Coakley shielding a cop because he was a cop and/or high up in the police union, it suddenly seems like a distinction that matters.  It also matters that Menendez's corruption didn't directly harm people, while Coakley's fight to keep innocent in prison did.   And it matters that Coakley established a pattern of being a horrible prosecutor.  If Menendez has actually followed through on his apparent threat to get revenge on the people who opposed him, that would establish a pattern of him as everything wrong with New Jersey politics, and be an example of him personally ruining lives, but I am not aware that he has.

So based on what I know, I think that Bob Menendez is still less awful than Martha Coakley.  But that leads me to the next question: If a rematch of 2010 were held today, it looked as close as New Jersey does, and I still lived in Massachusetts, how would I vote?  After a week of soul-searching, I think that in those circumstances I would probably vote for Coakley.  My heart goes out to the New Jersey voters who actually have to make this choice.  And for those New Jerseyans who are reluctantly supporting Menendez, I would encouraged you to learn from Louisiana and print up some stickers which read "Vote for the Crook: It's Important."

[Progressive Pessimist]

Menendez has finally been airing ads that present him as a check on Trump, emphasizing his votes against Trump's agenda and appointees in the Senate. It's about time, this is the tactic that I said he always should have taken. Maybe he was just waiting for the right timing while Hugin blew his wad Rick Scott style. I've been seeing a lot less of his ads recently. So this race was always safe D, but Menendez is probably going to improve his margin now.

[Senator Incitatus]

Hugin has been airing negative ads all cycle, but the latest is being covered in the press as the "nuclear" ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x412sfTmQuc

Senate Democrats are dropping $3M on this ad in response:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=OwYEuGmdyR8

New Jersey might be the most expensive state to advertise in, so I'm not sure how big an impact this D ad will have.

[Senator Incitatus]

Both candidates will participate in the first televised debate of this race tonight on NJTV.

You can live-stream the debate here at 8PM ET: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ObxBpIn-Hk

It's clear at this point that Menendez has a solid if small lead.

A big moment from Hugin tonight could turn this into a true toss-up, but a bad show could effectively end his chances.

(I don't actually recommending reading too much into debates like this. The biggest variable will be any "zingers", how Hugin handles the Trump question, and whether Hugin can continue to attack Menendez without offending Democrats. Those are the sort of things that can spill over into broader exposure.)

[cg41386]

I thought Hugin was running a pretty decent campaign until the recent pedophilia ad. I think he went way too far when he didn’t have to.

[IceSpear]

I thought Hugin was running a pretty decent campaign until the recent pedophilia ad. I think he went way too far when he didn’t have to.

Clearly he thought he did have to because he was consistently trailing by decent sized margins.

[Senator Incitatus]

I thought Hugin was running a pretty decent campaign until the recent pedophilia ad. I think he went way too far when he didn’t have to.

I feel much the same. Bob Menendez was a decent Senator until he was credibly accused of soliciting underage prostitutes and indicted. I think he may have gone too far.

[Lord Admirale]

Polling indicates that Hugin did better in the debate than Menendez. Almost 60% of respondents on NJ.com's post-debate poll said Hugin won the debate, while 30% said Menendez won. 522 respondents so far.

Source.

Same story on InsiderNJ. Narrower margin, but 57% of respondents said Hugin won compared to 43% for Menendez. Roughly 6,300 respondents.

Source.

Worth noting both of these websites have a pretty left lean. InsiderNJ is cluttered with Menendez ads.

[Zaybay]

Polling indicates that Hugin did better in the debate than Menendez. Almost 60% of respondents on NJ.com's post-debate poll said Hugin won the debate, while 30% said Menendez won. 522 respondents so far.

Source.

Same story on InsiderNJ. Narrower margin, but 57% of respondents said Hugin won compared to 43% for Menendez.

Source.

Worth noting both of these websites have a pretty left lean. InsiderNJ is cluttered with Menendez ads.

The fact that I just voted in the polls(for Hugin, because why not) is a good indicator that perhaps its not the most sound methodology wise.

[Lord Admirale]

Polling indicates that Hugin did better in the debate than Menendez. Almost 60% of respondents on NJ.com's post-debate poll said Hugin won the debate, while 30% said Menendez won. 522 respondents so far.

Source.

Same story on InsiderNJ. Narrower margin, but 57% of respondents said Hugin won compared to 43% for Menendez.

Source.

Worth noting both of these websites have a pretty left lean. InsiderNJ is cluttered with Menendez ads.

The fact that I just voted in the polls(for Hugin, because why not) is a good indicator that perhaps its not the most sound methodology wise.

[MT Treasurer]

Don’t get your hopes up, Admiral/AMB1996/other Hugin supporters. There are more than enough "hold my nose and vote for Menendez" voters for Menendez to win relatively comfortably, the debate isn’t going to change that. Even if there’s a red wave, I don’t see Hugin winning, honestly. This state isn’t sending a Republican to the Senate, it’s just not going to happen.

[Senator Incitatus]

Regardless of what unscientific online polls say, my main takeaway from the debate is that Hugin would be an extremely moderate Senator in the vein of Murkowski or Scott Brown. He is clearly angling for more independent/Democratic votes.

He knows that's what he has to do to win. On every question, he expressed a position contradictory to the Republican orthodoxy. He prefers a path to citizenship, likes parts of the ACA, wouldn't have voted for the tax bill, pro-life, "I am not a Trump Republican", etc. He can pull it off, but he's walking a very fine line. (Whether he's being honest is a different question. I believe him, even if I don't like it.)

Menendez also came off as more moderate than one might expect, but not if you know much about him. Like Trump, he has no real ideology or principles (excluding policy regarding Israel or Cuba). He just wants votes.

Don’t get your hopes up, Admiral/AMB1996/other Hugin supporters. There are more than enough "hold my nose and vote for Menendez" voters for Menendez to win relatively comfortably, the debate isn’t going to change that. Even if there’s a red wave, I don’t see Hugin winning, honestly.

There really aren't. People like that might make up <20% of the state. This isn't Hawai'i. He needs voters to mistrust Hugin given his high unfavorables. There's a current 50-60 point favorability gap with independents and a huge enthusiasm gap between the parties (which is what online polls show if anything), and that could very well cost him the election.

I'm also not so much a Hugin supporter as a Menendez opponent. There are a number of Democrats I'd have voted for in this race. Bob Menendez isn't one of them and never will be.

[wesmoorenerd]

Regardless of what unscientific online polls say, my main takeaway from the debate is that Hugin would be an extremely moderate Senator in the vein of Murkowski or Scott Brown. He is clearly angling for more independent/Democratic votes.

He knows that's what he has to do to win. On every question, he expressed a position contradictory to the Republican orthodoxy. He prefers a path to citizenship, likes parts of the ACA, wouldn't have voted for the tax bill, pro-life, "I am not a Trump Republican", etc. He can pull it off, but he's walking a very fine line. (Whether he's being honest is a different question. I believe him, even if I don't like it.)

Menendez also came off as more moderate than one might expect, but not if you know much about him. Like Trump, he has no real ideology or principles (excluding policy regarding Israel or Cuba). He just wants votes.

Don’t get your hopes up, Admiral/AMB1996/other Hugin supporters. There are more than enough "hold my nose and vote for Menendez" voters for Menendez to win relatively comfortably, the debate isn’t going to change that. Even if there’s a red wave, I don’t see Hugin winning, honestly.

There really aren't. People like that might make up <20% of the state. This isn't Hawai'i. He needs voters to mistrust Hugin given his high unfavorables. There's a current 50-60 point favorability gap with independents and a huge enthusiasm gap between the parties (which is what online polls show if anything), and that could very well cost him the election.

I'm also not so much a Hugin supporter as a Menendez opponent. There are a number of Democrats I'd have voted for in this race. Bob Menendez isn't one of them and never will be.

Ain't no thing as an extremely moderate Republican anymore.

[njwes]

"Tomorrow, U.S. Senate candidate will hold a press conference to receive the endorsement of Latino Leadership Alliance of New Jersey Political Action Committee. Bob Hugin will be the first Republican candidate for U.S. Senate to be endorsed by the organization."

https://www.insidernj.com/press-release/hugin-receive-llanj-endorsement/


Not sure this will move the needle much, let alone enough to get Hugin over the line, but it's definitely a good thing

[Storr]

"Tomorrow, U.S. Senate candidate will hold a press conference to receive the endorsement of Latino Leadership Alliance of New Jersey Political Action Committee. Bob Hugin will be the first Republican candidate for U.S. Senate to be endorsed by the organization."

https://www.insidernj.com/press-release/hugin-receive-llanj-endorsement/


Not sure this will move the needle much, let alone enough to get Hugin over the line, but it's definitely a good thing

It probably won't help any side much, like you said. But, it's striking the Latino Leadership Alliance didn't endorse the sitting Latino Senator.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Polling indicates that Hugin did better in the debate than Menendez. Almost 60% of respondents on NJ.com's post-debate poll said Hugin won the debate, while 30% said Menendez won. 522 respondents so far.

Source.

Same story on InsiderNJ. Narrower margin, but 57% of respondents said Hugin won compared to 43% for Menendez. Roughly 6,300 respondents.

Source.

Worth noting both of these websites have a pretty left lean. InsiderNJ is cluttered with Menendez ads.

The first link even says "Vote in our informal and unscientific poll"