NJ-SEN Megathread: Pharma CEO considers Menendez challenge

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Cook Political report moves NJ-SEN to TOSSUP

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/senate-11-days-out-nj-moves-toss

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's pretty absurd seeing as how Hugin hasn't led in a single poll.

[Oryxslayer]

That's pretty absurd seeing as how Hugin hasn't led in a single poll.

Neither has Beto. But, Cook keeps that at tossup. Frankly, this year has revealed a stunning difference in opinions between Cooks house model and their Senate/gov model - which are done by two separate people.

[Skye]

I usually defend Cook's ratings, but this is an odd choice all around. Granted, they have every seemingly competitive race as a tossup, so that may explain.

I still hope Hugin performs well, but I don't think that'll be enough to overcome NJ's blue lean. Much like Beto in TX.

[Senator Incitatus]

10 DAYS TO ELECTION

There was significant informal momentum for Hugin in the first day post-debate. Punditry generally seems to favor him and a Latino advocacy group that endorsed Murphy in 2017 endorsed him over Menendez. He also rolled out another prostitution attack ad (https://youtu.be/Ofu88rqnQcY) .

A few clips of Menendez supporters calling black Hugin supporters 'slaves' and throwing Hugin signs into a busy street have hit social media and the news. We'll see if anything comes of that, though I doubt it.

But I can't defend rating a race as Toss-Up when one candidate has never led in a poll, even if multiple polls are within MoE. Just seems like Cook is covering his ass. Menendez still wins in 70%+ of scenarios, so this remains Lean/Likely until Hugin gets stronger polling.

[Senator Incitatus]

Burlington County Times (unenthusiastically) endorses Hugin.

http://www.burlingtoncountytimes.com/opinion/20181026/editorial-board-we-endorse-bob-hugin-for-us-senate

They are the main local paper in Burlington, one of the swing counties. They endorse politicians from both parties and are considered somewhat a unbiased source, though perhaps one with a Republican lean when considering the county/state environment. They also endorsed MacArthur this week and Christie in 2009.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's pretty absurd seeing as how Hugin hasn't led in a single poll.

Neither has Beto. But, Cook keeps that at tossup. Frankly, this year has revealed a stunning difference in opinions between Cooks house model and their Senate/gov model - which are done by two separate people.

Beto has led in a few polls. But that's not a Toss up. Neither is NJ.

[Seriously?]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/senate-11-days-out-nj-moves-toss

My guess is Menendez still wins, but it's looking like it is way to close for comfort for him. He's getting pounded by allegations of him getting with underage prostitutes all over the airwaves.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This has already been posted, we don't need another thread.

[Gass3268]

This has already been posted, we don't need another thread.

When positive news happens for Republicans, there is always another thread.

[Xing]

This has already been posted, we don't need another thread.

When positive news happens for Republicans, there is always another thread.

[Seriously?]

There's no such thread as you claim anywhere here.

This has already been posted, we don't need another thread.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

There's no such thread as you claim anywhere here.

This has already been posted, we don't need another thread.

It is in both the NJ thread and the ratings thread.

This is a rating and it is of NJ, so go post in one of those 2 threads if you want to talk about it. You can go read what has already been said about it in those threads.

[MT Treasurer]

Menendez could do things a lot worse than that and would still win reelection. Safe D.

[Atlas Force]

This has already been posted, we don't need another thread.

When positive news happens for Republicans, there is always another thread.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Polls this month are Menendez +5, +7, +10, +10 but obviously tossup because 160% of those undecideds will definitely break for Hugin in #battlegroundstate New Jersey in this #redwave year.

[Wisconsin+17]

Safe D -> Tossup.

[Bidenworth2020]

Safe D -> Tossup.

umm, what changed???

[Mr. Matt]

Polling indicates that Hugin did better in the debate than Menendez. Almost 60% of respondents on NJ.com's post-debate poll said Hugin won the debate, while 30% said Menendez won. 522 respondents so far.

Source.

Same story on InsiderNJ. Narrower margin, but 57% of respondents said Hugin won compared to 43% for Menendez. Roughly 6,300 respondents.

Source.

Worth noting both of these websites have a pretty left lean. InsiderNJ is cluttered with Menendez ads.

I assure you that those who vote in the NJ.com polls and who certainly post in its comment sections are nowhere close to being left leaning.

[Comrade Funk]

Polling indicates that Hugin did better in the debate than Menendez. Almost 60% of respondents on NJ.com's post-debate poll said Hugin won the debate, while 30% said Menendez won. 522 respondents so far.

Source.

Same story on InsiderNJ. Narrower margin, but 57% of respondents said Hugin won compared to 43% for Menendez. Roughly 6,300 respondents.

Source.

Worth noting both of these websites have a pretty left lean. InsiderNJ is cluttered with Menendez ads.

I assure you that those who vote in the NJ.com polls and who certainly post in its comment sections are nowhere close to being left leaning.

Seriously lol

[Wells]

Polling indicates that Hugin did better in the debate than Menendez. Almost 60% of respondents on NJ.com's post-debate poll said Hugin won the debate, while 30% said Menendez won. 522 respondents so far.

Source.

Same story on InsiderNJ. Narrower margin, but 57% of respondents said Hugin won compared to 43% for Menendez. Roughly 6,300 respondents.

Source.

Worth noting both of these websites have a pretty left lean. InsiderNJ is cluttered with Menendez ads.

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statistics-probability/designing-studies/sampling-methods-stats/a/sampling-methods-review

These polls are completely worthless. Surely you remember how every online poll said Bernie Sanders was winning every single Democratic primary debate two or three years ago. How did that go?

[Lord Admirale]

Polling indicates that Hugin did better in the debate than Menendez. Almost 60% of respondents on NJ.com's post-debate poll said Hugin won the debate, while 30% said Menendez won. 522 respondents so far.

Source.

Same story on InsiderNJ. Narrower margin, but 57% of respondents said Hugin won compared to 43% for Menendez. Roughly 6,300 respondents.

Source.

Worth noting both of these websites have a pretty left lean. InsiderNJ is cluttered with Menendez ads.

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statistics-probability/designing-studies/sampling-methods-stats/a/sampling-methods-review

These polls are completely worthless. Surely you remember how every online poll said Bernie Sanders was winning every single Democratic primary debate two or three years ago. How did that go?

Wow I've really offended everyone by saying that the pedo Senator might lose (lol)

[Wells]

Wow I've really offended everyone by saying that the pedo Senator might lose (lol)

The issue I have here is that you linked to some polls which according to the methodology are guaranteed to be inaccurate. This was pointed out to you and you haughtily dismissed all the valid criticisms, and have done it once again with this post. I don't want Menendez to win, but your disposition is unhelpful. I have reasonable doubt that you clicked on the link, so I'll just quote it here for you:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Lord Admirale]

Wow I've really offended everyone by saying that the pedo Senator might lose (lol)

The issue I have here is that you linked to some polls which according to the methodology are guaranteed to be inaccurate. This was pointed out to you and you haughtily dismissed all the valid criticisms, and have done it once again with this post. I don't want Menendez to win, but your disposition is unhelpful. I have reasonable doubt that you clicked on the link, so I'll just quote it here for you:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The website was down when I checked it, honey. Not my fault.

[CookieDamage]

Polling indicates that Hugin did better in the debate than Menendez. Almost 60% of respondents on NJ.com's post-debate poll said Hugin won the debate, while 30% said Menendez won. 522 respondents so far.

Source.

Same story on InsiderNJ. Narrower margin, but 57% of respondents said Hugin won compared to 43% for Menendez. Roughly 6,300 respondents.

Source.

Worth noting both of these websites have a pretty left lean. InsiderNJ is cluttered with Menendez ads.

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statistics-probability/designing-studies/sampling-methods-stats/a/sampling-methods-review

These polls are completely worthless. Surely you remember how every online poll said Bernie Sanders was winning every single Democratic primary debate two or three years ago. How did that go?

Wow I've really offended everyone by saying that the pedo Senator might lose (lol)

Sure Jan.