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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Quebec City, District 7, municipal, Dec 9)  (Read 13699 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« on: January 09, 2018, 02:12:31 pm »

Nothing scheduled so far, but the following seats are vacant:

Federal:
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord,QC
(Outremont, QC will be vacated later this year)

Provincial:
Kindersley, SK
Melfort, SK
Kelowna West, BC
(Swift Current, SK will be vacated soon)

No major municipal by-elections on the horizon that I know of.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2018, 10:24:27 pm by Hatman 🍁 »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2018, 03:18:47 pm »

Nothing scheduled so far, but the following seats are vacant:

Federal:
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord,QC
(Outremont, QC will be vacated later this year)

Provincial:
Kindersley, SK
Kelowna West, BC

No major municipal by-elections on the horizon that I know of.

Federal:

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord:  While all four parties in the house of commons have won this seat in the last 25 years, barring some major changes in polling numbers in Quebec, I suspect the Liberals will hold this.  Who comes in second and with what percentage should be interesting.

Outremont:  Most likely a Liberal pickup although this is one of the more favourable seats towards the NDP in terms of its history and demographics so if the NDP is able to show they are still relevant in Quebec, this is one they need to win, so favours Liberals but NDP win at least plausible.

Provincial:

Kindersley: Is a very safe Saskatchewan Party seat so expect they will probably hold this albeit by a much smaller margin than in the last general election, so it will be interesting how much things tighten here.  Even in the 1991 NDP landslide they didn't win this thus why I don't expect them to pick this up, but I do expect they will do a lot better than they have in the past few elections.

Kelowna West: Very safe BC Liberal riding so expect the BC Liberals to easily hold this although numbers will be interesting.  Even if the Greens don't put up a candidate and the BC Conservatives put up one I doubt that would be enough to allow the NDP to pick this up.
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Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
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« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2018, 07:41:50 pm »

On Elections Saskatchewan's website, they've stated that they are also prepping for by-elections in Swift Current and Melfort.
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« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2018, 08:27:57 pm »

On Elections Saskatchewan's website, they've stated that they are also prepping for by-elections in Swift Current and Melfort.

D'oh!

Swift Current isn't vacant yet, as Brad Wall is still Premier, but he will resign after the SP leadership race.
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« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2018, 08:47:26 pm »

Melfort and Swift Current are pretty safe Saskatchewan Party seats so should tighten up, but would be a huge shocker if the NDP did win those.
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« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2018, 03:17:36 pm »

Melfort and Swift Current are pretty safe Saskatchewan Party seats so should tighten up, but would be a huge shocker if the NDP did win those.

Swift Current is an odd seat because it is an urban seat, and Brad Wall being the Premier has definitely had an effect on the election results there, as he’s actually from Swift Current, having spent his entire life there and having kept living there since he became Premier.

It is very much reminiscent of the Medicine Hat seat that the Alberta NDP won in 2015, where it is federally a strong federal Tory area, but because of its urban characteristics, a provincial win for a left-of-centre party is possible if they are sweeping the province. I don’t think the NDP would win a by-election there, but it could be close and end up being seriously contested in the 2020 general election.
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« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2018, 04:01:17 pm »

Melfort and Swift Current are pretty safe Saskatchewan Party seats so should tighten up, but would be a huge shocker if the NDP did win those.

Swift Current is an odd seat because it is an urban seat, and Brad Wall being the Premier has definitely had an effect on the election results there, as he’s actually from Swift Current, having spent his entire life there and having kept living there since he became Premier.

It is very much reminiscent of the Medicine Hat seat that the Alberta NDP won in 2015, where it is federally a strong federal Tory area, but because of its urban characteristics, a provincial win for a left-of-centre party is possible if they are sweeping the province. I don’t think the NDP would win a by-election there, but it could be close and end up being seriously contested in the 2020 general election.

It's only 15,000 people so pretty small, usually NDP only starts winning in cities over 30,000 like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert.  Also the southern parts of Saskatchewan near the US border have always tended to go for parties on the right no matter what.  In some ways their politics is more like North Dakota/Montana than the rest of Saskatchewan.  True the NDP will probably do a lot better in Swift Current and if they had two right wing parties they could win it much like Medicine Hat (I highly doubt the NDP will hold Medicine Hat in 2019, Lethbridge is the only city they might hold as they have the university).
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« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2018, 04:35:20 pm »

Melfort and Swift Current are pretty safe Saskatchewan Party seats so should tighten up, but would be a huge shocker if the NDP did win those.

Swift Current is an odd seat because it is an urban seat, and Brad Wall being the Premier has definitely had an effect on the election results there, as he’s actually from Swift Current, having spent his entire life there and having kept living there since he became Premier.

It is very much reminiscent of the Medicine Hat seat that the Alberta NDP won in 2015, where it is federally a strong federal Tory area, but because of its urban characteristics, a provincial win for a left-of-centre party is possible if they are sweeping the province. I don’t think the NDP would win a by-election there, but it could be close and end up being seriously contested in the 2020 general election.

It's only 15,000 people so pretty small, usually NDP only starts winning in cities over 30,000 like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert.  Also the southern parts of Saskatchewan near the US border have always tended to go for parties on the right no matter what.  In some ways their politics is more like North Dakota/Montana than the rest of Saskatchewan.  True the NDP will probably do a lot better in Swift Current and if they had two right wing parties they could win it much like Medicine Hat (I highly doubt the NDP will hold Medicine Hat in 2019, Lethbridge is the only city they might hold as they have the university).

In SASK, the NDP up until the 99 election (these were won in 95) held seats in the south, including Swift Current. Others included Weyburn-Big Muddy, Esetvan, Indian head-Milestone. Now that's approaching 20 years ago but in politics, that's relatively recent. But I agree, SASK is not the same place I think.
I don't see Melford or Kindersley really going NDP unless there is a huge shift, or a second strong conservative candidate running to split the vote. I can see Swift Current going NDP though, of any of them that would be the NDP target, for bragging rights alone... for the other two, it will be how much vote CAN the NDP win, which I think will indicate the overall trend in the province. If the NDP can pull in upwards of 30%, that's gov't territory if that becomes a provincial trend.
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« Reply #8 on: January 10, 2018, 04:49:29 pm »

Melfort and Swift Current are pretty safe Saskatchewan Party seats so should tighten up, but would be a huge shocker if the NDP did win those.

Swift Current is an odd seat because it is an urban seat, and Brad Wall being the Premier has definitely had an effect on the election results there, as he’s actually from Swift Current, having spent his entire life there and having kept living there since he became Premier.

It is very much reminiscent of the Medicine Hat seat that the Alberta NDP won in 2015, where it is federally a strong federal Tory area, but because of its urban characteristics, a provincial win for a left-of-centre party is possible if they are sweeping the province. I don’t think the NDP would win a by-election there, but it could be close and end up being seriously contested in the 2020 general election.

It's only 15,000 people so pretty small, usually NDP only starts winning in cities over 30,000 like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert.  Also the southern parts of Saskatchewan near the US border have always tended to go for parties on the right no matter what.  In some ways their politics is more like North Dakota/Montana than the rest of Saskatchewan.  True the NDP will probably do a lot better in Swift Current and if they had two right wing parties they could win it much like Medicine Hat (I highly doubt the NDP will hold Medicine Hat in 2019, Lethbridge is the only city they might hold as they have the university).

Re: Medicine Hat, the urban riding is disappearing next election, as the city will be split between two “rurban” ridings (Brooks-Medicine Hat and a redrawn Cypress-Medicine Hat), so the NDP certainly won’t be winning here next time.
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« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2018, 04:53:51 pm »

A uniform swing to match the latest by-election result (that implied a popular vote tie), would have the results pegged as

Swift Current
65% - Sask Party
30% - NDP

Kindersley
52% - Sask Party
23% - NDP
17% - Right-wing independent challenger

Melfort
60% - Sask Party
34% - NDP

Swift Current will probably swing more dramatically than the rest, due to the previous incumbent being such a transcendent figure in the city (I would know, I lived there for a couple of years).

Also, expect Indian Head-Milestone to be vacated for Alanna Koch if she won, she lives in the riding and Don McMorris, the shamed former Deputy Premier is the MLA for that seat.

Indian Head-Milestone
60% - Sask Party
39% - NDP
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« Reply #10 on: January 10, 2018, 05:04:53 pm »

There may be a very interesting byelection in The Battlefords in the coming year as well and that would be a genuine SK swing seat.
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« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2018, 01:06:09 pm »

Kelowna West by-election will be February 14.
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« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2018, 04:47:58 pm »

Will be a real snoozer as an easy BC Liberal win.  That being said smart choice in date by Horgan since if Diane Watts wins the BC Liberal leadership race, it will be too late to change candidates so she will have to ask someone else to step aside for her thus giving the NDP more leeway.  Had it been called for March, there would be enough time for Ben Stewart to step down as BC Liberal candidate and let Diane Watts run here.  Off course if any of the other four (note Sam Sullivan I am not including as he has zero chance of winning and I say this as someone who lives in his riding) this will be a non-issue as all the others already have seats.
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« Reply #13 on: January 18, 2018, 06:10:14 pm »

For the federal Chicoutimi-Le Fjord by-election, the Conservative candidate will be Richard Martel. He is a hockey coach who coached the Chicoutimi team in the Quebec Junior League.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1074269/parti-conservateur-canada-confirme-candidature-richard-martel

People interested in running for the Liberals:
Marc Pettersen, veteran city councillor in Saguenay and was the Liberal candidate in Jonquière in last election.
Claude Bouchard who does industrial development for Promotion Saguenay, the city's economic development agency.
The name of Philippe Gagnon was also mentioned. He is in charge of sports at the university.

For the Bloc, Mario Gagnon is thinking about running. He is a firefighter involved in the collect and repair of toys for kids. He lost a nomination in the past to run for the PQ.
 
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« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2018, 07:17:17 pm »

Will be a real snoozer as an easy BC Liberal win.  That being said smart choice in date by Horgan since if Diane Watts wins the BC Liberal leadership race, it will be too late to change candidates so she will have to ask someone else to step aside for her thus giving the NDP more leeway.  Had it been called for March, there would be enough time for Ben Stewart to step down as BC Liberal candidate and let Diane Watts run here.  Off course if any of the other four (note Sam Sullivan I am not including as he has zero chance of winning and I say this as someone who lives in his riding) this will be a non-issue as all the others already have seats.

I think the obvious choice if Diane Watts wins the leadership would be for Rich Coleman to open up his seat for her.

1.Apparently he didn't really want to run again in 2017 anyway.

2.It would be a graceful way for him to leave politics after his graceless stint as interim leader.

3.Langley Township is not quite the neighboring riding of the Surrey area, but it's not far away either

4.It's a safe Liberal seat

5.It probably makes more sense for Diane Watts to hold a seat in the Greater Vancouver area after Christy Clark's four years of 'the B.C Liberal war on Greater Vancouver' than to represent a riding in the Interior.
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« Reply #15 on: January 18, 2018, 07:19:07 pm »

For the federal Chicoutimi-Le Fjord by-election, the Conservative candidate will be Richard Martel. He is a hockey coach who coached the Chicoutimi team in the Quebec Junior League.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1074269/parti-conservateur-canada-confirme-candidature-richard-martel

People interested in running for the Liberals:
Marc Pettersen, veteran city councillor in Saguenay and was the Liberal candidate in Jonquière in last election.
Claude Bouchard who does industrial development for Promotion Saguenay, the city's economic development agency.
The name of Philippe Gagnon was also mentioned. He is in charge of sports at the university.

For the Bloc, Mario Gagnon is thinking about running. He is a firefighter involved in the collect and repair of toys for kids. He lost a nomination in the past to run for the PQ.
 

Any update on Dany Morin for the NDP?
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« Reply #16 on: January 18, 2018, 08:58:42 pm »

Will be a real snoozer as an easy BC Liberal win.  That being said smart choice in date by Horgan since if Diane Watts wins the BC Liberal leadership race, it will be too late to change candidates so she will have to ask someone else to step aside for her thus giving the NDP more leeway.  Had it been called for March, there would be enough time for Ben Stewart to step down as BC Liberal candidate and let Diane Watts run here.  Off course if any of the other four (note Sam Sullivan I am not including as he has zero chance of winning and I say this as someone who lives in his riding) this will be a non-issue as all the others already have seats.

I think the obvious choice if Diane Watts wins the leadership would be for Rich Coleman to open up his seat for her.

1.Apparently he didn't really want to run again in 2017 anyway.

2.It would be a graceful way for him to leave politics after his graceless stint as interim leader.

3.Langley Township is not quite the neighboring riding of the Surrey area, but it's not far away either

4.It's a safe Liberal seat

5.It probably makes more sense for Diane Watts to hold a seat in the Greater Vancouver area after Christy Clark's four years of 'the B.C Liberal war on Greater Vancouver' than to represent a riding in the Interior.

Probably not a bad idea.  I think the main reason though many BC Liberals would be concerned about this is it gives the NDP an extra seat, but realistically I cannot see the government falling before 2019 probably much later.  The other possibility is to ask Stephanie Cadieux or Marvin Hunt to step aside is those are actually Surrey ridings and in the case of Stephanie Cadieux that is a very safe BC Liberal riding.  Marvin Hunt's was in the past but changing demographics make it somewhat less so as well as the old boundaries of Surrey-Cloverdale were much more BC Liberal friendly than the current ones.  Still as a popular former mayor of Surrey and if she was leader I suspect she could win either of those.  I excluded Surrey-White Rock as the MLA there is a rookie so doubt she will step aside.
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« Reply #17 on: January 18, 2018, 09:46:52 pm »

Will be a real snoozer as an easy BC Liberal win.  That being said smart choice in date by Horgan since if Diane Watts wins the BC Liberal leadership race, it will be too late to change candidates so she will have to ask someone else to step aside for her thus giving the NDP more leeway.  Had it been called for March, there would be enough time for Ben Stewart to step down as BC Liberal candidate and let Diane Watts run here.  Off course if any of the other four (note Sam Sullivan I am not including as he has zero chance of winning and I say this as someone who lives in his riding) this will be a non-issue as all the others already have seats.

3.Langley Township is not quite the neighboring riding of the Surrey area, but it's not far away either


His riding does in fact border Surrey.
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« Reply #18 on: January 18, 2018, 10:50:32 pm »

For the federal Chicoutimi-Le Fjord by-election, the Conservative candidate will be Richard Martel. He is a hockey coach who coached the Chicoutimi team in the Quebec Junior League.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1074269/parti-conservateur-canada-confirme-candidature-richard-martel

People interested in running for the Liberals:
Marc Pettersen, veteran city councillor in Saguenay and was the Liberal candidate in Jonquière in last election.
Claude Bouchard who does industrial development for Promotion Saguenay, the city's economic development agency.
The name of Philippe Gagnon was also mentioned. He is in charge of sports at the university.

For the Bloc, Mario Gagnon is thinking about running. He is a firefighter involved in the collect and repair of toys for kids. He lost a nomination in the past to run for the PQ.
 

Any update on Dany Morin for the NDP?

Singh is visiting Chicoutimi on the 24th, we might get more information then.
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« Reply #19 on: January 22, 2018, 10:49:32 pm »

Someone is seeking the NDP nomination in Chicoutimi. Eric Dubois who works for the CSN union. He lost the nomination race in Lac-Saint-Jean in 2015 but ran for the party in the 2007 by-election in Roberval-Lac-St-Jean and in 2006 and 2004.

https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/eric-dubois-souhaite-etre-candidat-du-npd-a25af6880f12ec9935391f883f416ca3
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« Reply #20 on: January 24, 2018, 01:59:15 pm »

Jamie Baillie has resigned his seat in Cumberland South, as well as the leadership of the Nova Scotia Tories.
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« Reply #21 on: January 24, 2018, 02:35:58 pm »

Because of sexual harassment charges.
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« Reply #22 on: January 24, 2018, 02:47:59 pm »

Cumberland South was until recently a PC stronghold where they usually topped 60% and sometimes even 70%, but in recent elections it has become a lot more competitive so a Liberal pick up is definitely possible especially if they have a strong candidate.  Could also stay PC and in fact the next PC leader is not part of the caucus might be a good riding to run in.
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« Reply #23 on: January 24, 2018, 03:03:27 pm »

Cumberland South was until recently a PC stronghold where they usually topped 60% and sometimes even 70%, but in recent elections it has become a lot more competitive so a Liberal pick up is definitely possible especially if they have a strong candidate.  Could also stay PC and in fact the next PC leader is not part of the caucus might be a good riding to run in.

Before 1993, the riding was split in two (Cumberland West and Cumberland Centre). Cumberland Centre voted Liberal continuously from 1974 to 1993. Cumberland Centre included Springhill, a former coal mining town (famous for the Springhill mining disaster) which still votes Liberal to this day.
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« Reply #24 on: January 24, 2018, 03:14:58 pm »

Springhill is an interesting place, it is the largest community in the riding, and yet it is no longer an incorporated community, as it was forced to be absorbed by the county in 2015 due to financial constraints. The town has been in steep decline since the last coal mines closed in the 1970s. The town's population peaked in 1956 at 7K, but now has just 3000 people.

Springhill's decline is the reason why the two south Cumberland ridings had to merge in 1993.

Interestingly, the riding's second largest community, Parrsboro also de-incoporated recently, in 2016. 
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