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  Newfoundland election 2019
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Author Topic: Newfoundland election 2019  (Read 1387 times)
mileslunn
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« on: October 31, 2018, 10:55:40 pm »

Newfoundland is scheduled to vote on October 8, 2019, but with that being only 13 days before the federal election thus overlapping, might be moved up to the spring or pushed back to 2020.  The Liberals will almost certainly lose seats and PCs gain, but polls seem to bounce around a lot with one month the PCs ahead another the Liberals ahead.  My guess is the Liberals win a greatly reduced majority with PCs forming a much stronger opposition, but wouldn't be totally shocked if the PCs pull it off.  NDP should win a few seats in St. John's and perhaps Labrador, but not likely unless they surprise people during the campaign to go anywhere.  Nonetheless if a super close race, you could have a minority where the NDP would have a lot of clout and hold the balance of power.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2018, 03:47:52 am »

Both Mainstreet and MQO have numbers out for Newfoundland & Labrador while MQO also has federal numbers.  The Liberals are in the lead so reasonably good position for an election less than a year away.  PCs in a strong second so in good shape to pick up seats, but still have to improve a fair bit if they want to win outright.

MQO

Liberal 47%
PC 35%
NDP 16%

Mainstreet

Liberal 44.6%
PC 39.1%
NDP 12.8%

MQO also has federal numbers and they show Liberals with a big lead, likely enough to sweep the province again.  Tories are up a fair bit since 2015 (they only got 10% then), but still a long ways away from being competitive in Newfoundland & Labrador although if similar shifts occur across Atlantic Canada they might win a few seats.

Liberal 60%
Conservative 25%
NDP 14%
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2018, 10:36:13 pm »

is it possible for the conservatives to gain power in newfoundland?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2018, 04:06:52 am »

is it possible for the conservatives to gain power in newfoundland?

Possible? Yes. Likely? Not really, no.
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adma
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« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2018, 05:03:06 pm »

is it possible for the conservatives to gain power in newfoundland?

Possible? Yes. Likely? Not really, no.

Though given the Crosbie name, who knows.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #5 on: January 01, 2019, 12:24:05 pm »

is it possible for the conservatives to gain power in newfoundland?

Possible? Yes. Likely? Not really, no.

Though given the Crosbie name, who knows.

Also, the Liberal vote appears relatively concentrated, so the Tories might be able to scrape a minority government while losing the popular vote by a couple points.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2019, 05:20:41 pm »

Also it seems poll numbers bounce around a lot, Liberals ahead one month, Tories up the next.  I think the Liberals have a slight edge, but there is a high enough undecided it wouldn't be a shock if the PCs pull off a majority.  With how weak the NDP is, I think unless as close as BC or New Brunswick, it will be a majority.  NDP is only competitive in the central parts of St John's and parts of Labrador, irrelevant elsewhere.  I do think though it is very likely the PCs will gain a whole bunch of seats even if they fall short and Liberals will lose many even if they win again, mind you usually in blowout elections you see a regression to the mean in the subsequent election, think federally 1988, BC 2005.  While not until 2020, I suspect in Manitoba you will see the same too since even if the PCs win again (which looks likely at the moment but could change), it probably won't be as big a blowout as in 2016.
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adma
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« Reply #7 on: January 02, 2019, 06:35:23 pm »

While not until 2020, I suspect in Manitoba you will see the same too since even if the PCs win again (which looks likely at the moment but could change), it probably won't be as big a blowout as in 2016.

I think a lot in Manitoba may depend on how the opposition vote shakes out--not that another 1988 Carstairs circumstance is in the works, but...
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mileslunn
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« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2019, 01:47:00 pm »

While not until 2020, I suspect in Manitoba you will see the same too since even if the PCs win again (which looks likely at the moment but could change), it probably won't be as big a blowout as in 2016.

I think a lot in Manitoba may depend on how the opposition vote shakes out--not that another 1988 Carstairs circumstance is in the works, but...

Even if you have strong splits, I think winning 40 seats for the PCs will be pretty tough to repeat, certainly 53% is probably not likely to happen.  That is not to say they couldn't rebound to the high 40s.  Liberals could do well, but they always poll higher in between elections while on election day much of their support then swings to which party they dislike least.  In many ways its who they swing behind that usually wins.  If they swing massively behind the NDP they could win, but otherwise it would favour the PCs as they only need to hold what they have or pick up a few Liberals.

Still the point is in both cases, last elections were blowouts and it is very tough to repeat those.  1988 federally and 2005 in BC both resulted in incumbents being re-elected, but not with blowout margins like 4 years earlier and I think if the Liberals win in Newfoundland (which is the most likely outcome) that is what will happen.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #9 on: February 01, 2019, 10:03:21 pm »

Mainstreet has a poll out and MQO research will on Monday showing the PCs pulling into a narrow lead but within the margin of error.

PC 43.3%
Liberal 42%
NDP 11.5%
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