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December 06, 2019, 01:00:27 pm
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  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Tegridy Farms)
  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 31125 times)
136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #150 on: June 18, 2018, 08:04:15 pm »

15 polls
692-364
NPD solidifying distant third.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #151 on: June 18, 2018, 08:08:02 pm »

20 polls 854-460. NDP in 3rd at 139 (8.5%.) Turmel with a third vote!
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #152 on: June 18, 2018, 08:09:59 pm »

25 polls
971-516.  NDP in third with 166 votes (8.9%)
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #153 on: June 18, 2018, 08:10:09 pm »

Turmel has five votes!
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #154 on: June 18, 2018, 08:11:21 pm »

30 polls
1177-650.  NDP in third with 204 (9.0%)
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #155 on: June 18, 2018, 08:12:51 pm »

35 polls
1400-840.  NDP in third with 231 (8.3%.) Turmel up to 6 votes.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #156 on: June 18, 2018, 08:14:09 pm »

40 polls
1638-956.  NDP in third with 274 (8.5%.) Turmel at 10 votes!
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #157 on: June 18, 2018, 08:14:32 pm »

Looks like it'll be a Conservative gain by a very convincing margin.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #158 on: June 18, 2018, 08:14:46 pm »

I guess the goal for the NDP will be to get at least a higher share of the vote than 2008? That mark was 7.8%. Third place would be good too.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #159 on: June 18, 2018, 08:15:53 pm »

45 polls
1923-1107.  NDP in 3rd with 312 (8.3%)  Turmel at 14 votes.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #160 on: June 18, 2018, 08:17:55 pm »

50 polls
2,261-1251.  NDP in third with 362 (8.4%)
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #161 on: June 18, 2018, 08:27:52 pm »

Now up to 70 of 188 polls reporting.  Percentages haven't changed significantly.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #162 on: June 18, 2018, 08:42:12 pm »

CBC calls it.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #163 on: June 18, 2018, 08:54:30 pm »

I look forward to the NDP winning a Barrie riding with candidate Dale Hawerchuk.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #164 on: June 18, 2018, 08:58:52 pm »

The most important stat of tonight: John Turmel has 62 votes so far, which is three more than the 59 votes he got when he ran in the Ontario provincial election in Brantford-Brant.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #165 on: June 18, 2018, 09:00:17 pm »

Well, the Toires would win Ottawa South with Brian Kilrea, who is an even more accomplished junior coach than Martel.
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trebor204
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« Reply #166 on: June 18, 2018, 09:22:00 pm »

John Turmel is now at 86 votes with 165/188 polls, can he break 100?
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Holmes
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« Reply #167 on: June 18, 2018, 09:25:50 pm »

Very uneventful by-election when the more interesting topic is Turmel.
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trebor204
TREBOR204
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« Reply #168 on: June 18, 2018, 09:53:59 pm »

John Turmel just broke 100 votes with 185/188 polls reporting.

Liberal - 29.50%
Bloc - 5.6%
NDP - 8.6%
Consv - 52.70%
IND - Turmel - 0.4%
Green - 3.1%

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trebor204
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« Reply #169 on: June 18, 2018, 10:22:58 pm »

Final Unofficial Results

Liberal                               Lina Boivin                           7,032   29.5 %   
Bloc Québécois                   Catherine Bouchard-Tremblay   1,337   5.6 %   
NDP-New Democratic Party    Éric Dubois                           2,065   8.7 %   
Conservative                    Richard Martel                         12,580   52.7 %   
Independent                    John The Engineer Turmel              104   0.4 %   
Green Party                    Lynda Youde                              736   3.1 %   
Total number of valid votes:       23,854       
Polls Reporting:   188 of 188 (100 %)

Voter Turnout:   23,854 of 66,152 registered electors (36.06 %)

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clash
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« Reply #170 on: June 19, 2018, 12:16:29 am »

Conservatives and Quebecois nationalists joining forces in a cynical political alliance? What could go wrong?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #171 on: June 19, 2018, 06:39:28 am »

There is a by-election in Cumberland South today to replace former PC leader Jamie Baillie who resigned in a #metoo incident.

The seat has a long Tory history, but the Liberals kept it reasonably close in 2013 and 2017 despite it being held by a leader. Unfortunately I don't know much about the candidates  and that's kind of a big deal in a rural Maritime by-election, so I'll just call it a 50/50 tossup.
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JG
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« Reply #172 on: June 19, 2018, 06:54:07 am »

Conservatives and Quebecois nationalists joining forces in a cynical political alliance? What could go wrong?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #173 on: June 19, 2018, 11:10:02 am »

Swings:
Cons: +36.1%
Lib: -1.6%
NDP: -21.1%
BQ: -14.9%
Grn: +1.0%

Cons GAIN from Lib (18.9%)
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lilTommy
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« Reply #174 on: June 19, 2018, 03:43:51 pm »

St.Boniface Manitoba by-election called for July 17th

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-byelection-st-boniface-1.4713049

I suspect this to be a battle between the NDP and Liberals; Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont is running in the former NDP Premiers seat. This would give the party official party status. The NDP have held St. Boniface since 1999.

Last Winnipeg poll was (april 2018):
PC - 39%
NDP - 34%
Libearl - 16%
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/pallister-pcs-widen-lead-over-ndp/
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