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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 30673 times)
136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #200 on: July 16, 2018, 01:07:32 am »

Saint Boniface this Tuesday will probably be an easy NDP hold, but numbers should be interesting.  The polls I've seen shows the PCs have held their support in rural Manitoba, but dropped by double digits in Winnipeg so be interesting to see the numbers even though they have no chance here.  Liberals do well here federally so be interesting if they are able to benefit from unpopularity of provincial PCs and reluctance to return to the NDP who are still too fresh in many people's minds.

The provincial PCs have rebounded in support. Brian Pallister seems to be turning out to be a very capable Premier.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #201 on: July 16, 2018, 01:27:24 am »

Saint Boniface this Tuesday will probably be an easy NDP hold, but numbers should be interesting.  The polls I've seen shows the PCs have held their support in rural Manitoba, but dropped by double digits in Winnipeg so be interesting to see the numbers even though they have no chance here.  Liberals do well here federally so be interesting if they are able to benefit from unpopularity of provincial PCs and reluctance to return to the NDP who are still too fresh in many people's minds.

The provincial PCs have rebounded in support. Brian Pallister seems to be turning out to be a very capable Premier.

True enough, although they got 53% which will be pretty tough to repeat, but they are up to 45% which is more than enough to win a solid majority although not Saint Boniface.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #202 on: July 16, 2018, 09:09:34 am »

I would not be surprised if the Liberals won it; they'll in the very least win the "Old St. Boniface" area, which is still a majority francophone.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #203 on: July 16, 2018, 10:20:10 am »

Looking ahead at the upcoming federal by-elections, here are my thoughts:

Burnaby South

I would give the NDP a slight edge, especially if Singh runs here and the Greens as promised don't run a candidate, but I also would not be the least bit surprised if the Liberals pick this up.  Tories have an outside chance, but they need perfect splits, otherwise Greens get around 10% and the Liberals and NDP split perfectly down the middle at around 30% each so unless they perfect splits doubt they will pick this up.

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Island & Rideau Lakes

This is a fairly safe Conservative riding so suspect the Tories will hold this.  Some benchmarks for them are under 50% is a bad night, 50-60% okay, while over 60% a good night.  For the Liberals anything over 30% is a good showing, 20-30% okay, while under 20% bad night.  For comparison it was 47% Tories in 2015 to 40% Liberals so somewhat competitive, but would be surprised if that close again.  Provincially on the other hand it was 62% PC while both Liberals and NDP got in the teens and I don't think it will be quite as big a blowout as this, otherwise this would be the best case scenario for the Tories and worst case for the Liberals.  NDP will likely be in the teens maybe even single digits as they've always been weak here even when they do well provincially.

Outremont

Liberals definitely favoured here, but I wouldn't totally rule out of the NDP since unlike the other Quebec by-elections to date, this is an area the NDP has historically done well in even pre 2011, still I would say the Liberals are the favourites.  For the NDP their main goal is to if not win it, at least make it close.  If they lose badly, this could suggests bigger trouble in Quebec.  Tories will be lucky if they can just get their deposit back (You have to get over 10% for this to happen).

St. Leonard-St. Michel

Liberal landslide, likely north of 60%.  NDP and Tories probably get their deposits back but likely languish in the teens.  Will be interesting to see who comes in second, albeit it will be a very distant second.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #204 on: July 17, 2018, 08:29:29 pm »

St Boniface
First poll
NDP 16
Liberal 15
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #205 on: July 17, 2018, 08:30:15 pm »
« Edited: July 17, 2018, 08:35:35 pm by 136or142 »

2 polls
Lib 42
NDP 38
Green 20
P.C 14
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #206 on: July 17, 2018, 08:36:12 pm »

5 polls
Lib: 105
NDP: 80
Green 37
NDP 26
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trebor204
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« Reply #207 on: July 17, 2018, 08:36:57 pm »

Weird, total votes cast are 667, however vote count is at 248.

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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #208 on: July 17, 2018, 08:38:24 pm »

6/49 polls
Lib: 208
NDP: 119
Green: 55
P.C: 48
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #209 on: July 17, 2018, 08:39:50 pm »

7/49
Lib: 225
NDP: 175
Green: 58
P.C: 57
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #210 on: July 17, 2018, 08:41:36 pm »

11/49
Lib:  474
NDP: 270
Green: 109
P.C: 105
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #211 on: July 17, 2018, 08:48:44 pm »

16/49 Polls
Liberal 749
NDP 420
Green 244
P.C 186
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #212 on: July 17, 2018, 08:51:51 pm »

20/49 Polls
Liberal: 965
NDP: 561
Green: 336
P.C: 272
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #213 on: July 17, 2018, 08:54:20 pm »

Looking like a fairly easy Liberal win. Yikes.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #214 on: July 17, 2018, 08:55:18 pm »

22/49 Polls
Liberal:1,101
NDP: 660
Green:381
P.C:310
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #215 on: July 17, 2018, 08:59:14 pm »

24/49 Polls
Liberal: 1,221
NDP: 755
Green: 453
P.C: 335
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #216 on: July 17, 2018, 09:01:09 pm »

26/49 Polls
Liberal: 1,340
NDP: 798
Green: 476
P.C: 349
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #217 on: July 17, 2018, 09:04:11 pm »

29/49 Polls
Liberal: 1,472
NDP: 940
Green: 535
P.C: 401
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #218 on: July 17, 2018, 09:05:33 pm »

32/49 Polls
Liberal: 1,606
NDP: 1,036
Green: 617
P.C: 437
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #219 on: July 17, 2018, 09:09:15 pm »

Well, I didn't pay much attention to this by-election, but I still saw this coming Wink

The riding does have a high francophone population and has a bit of a Liberal history. And Trudeaumania still has its coattails for the Liberal brand.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #220 on: July 17, 2018, 09:12:10 pm »

35/49 Polls
Liberal: 1,736
NDP: 1,157
Green: 666
P.C: 488
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« Reply #221 on: July 17, 2018, 09:12:54 pm »

At least I can enjoy the PCs being 4th place by a good margin.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #222 on: July 17, 2018, 09:18:40 pm »

The Greens had a good showing (12%) in 2016, so they had a base to work on. But I figured a lot of that came from disaffected New Democrats who couldn't vote for Selinger. I guess they're no fans of Kinew either.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #223 on: July 17, 2018, 09:29:35 pm »

40/49 Polls
Liberal: 2,057
NDP: 1,371
Green: 778
P.C: 632
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #224 on: July 17, 2018, 09:48:00 pm »

45/49 Polls
Liberal: 2,207
NDP: 1,460
Green: 823
P.C: 713
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