Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)

[mileslunn]

Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South is making an announcement about possibly running for Mayor of Vancouver today. If he resigns his seat, it may open up a more friendly spot for Singh to run in than Outremont.

Still even Burnaby South is far from a safe one and if Singh loses there he is done as leader.  I could see the Liberals who almost won in 2015 picking it up and while not a Conservative riding a slight uptick for them and a perfect split could allow them to slip up the middle (you would need a perfect split for them to win there).

Even with the NDP polling about at 2015 or lower, they have been polling higher in BC. I don't see the Liberals winning in this climate, their overt pro-pipeline stance is not very popular from what I can see in the Metro area, and particularly Burnaby. The provincial BCNDP seem to be relatively popular, If the NDP nominate a strong candidate or even Singh as a seat filler till 2019 I see the NDP winning the seat.

Actually polling average shows NDP down slightly in BC at a federal level but with Trudeau moving leftward you have a lot of cross over Liberal federal, NDP provincial votes.  On the pipeline, polls show a clear majority in BC want it, although this is provincewide so its possible in Burnaby most are against it and its further afield that people support it.  Horgan's numbers are so-so but better than most premiers.  The budget was popular, but his stance on pipelines is not and recent polls are mixed bag with Angus-Reid showing NDP ahead by 5, Mainstreet, the BC Liberals by 2 and 6 respectively so with no election on the horizon tough to say who is right and I suspect if an election were held today over 80% possibly 90% of seats would go the same way they did a year ago.

Still my point is Burnaby South is a huge gamble and far from a slam dunk.  New Westminster-Burnaby or Vancouver East, agreed the NDP would easily hold, but neither MP is stepping down.

[mileslunn]

Tomorrow is election day for the two Alberta by-elections! Polls are open from 9am to 8pm. Below are final candidate listings, and the 2015 results for context.

Fort McMurray-Conklin

Candidates:
Brian Deheer (GRN)
Sid Fayad (ABP)
Laila Goodridge (UCP)
Robin Le Fevre (LIB)
Jane Stroud (NDP)

2015 Results:
WRP: 43.85%
NDP: 30.79%
PC: 22.33%
LIB: 3.03%


Innisfail-Sylvan Lake

Candidates:
Abigail Douglass (ABP)
Devin Dresden (UCP)
David Inscho (IND)
Nick Jansen (LIB)
Nicole Mooney (NDP)

2015 Results:
WRP: 42.68%
PC: 28.00%
NDP: 23.14%
ABP: 6.19%

I think what will be more interesting to watch is do the NDP numbers hold up or do they fall and by how much.  Likewise does the UCP meet or exceed the combined total of WRP and PCs or fall short.  A good night for the UCP is beat the combined total and NDP falls well below what they got lost time.  Good night for NDP is hold or even gain slightly from last time while UCP falls short of combined vote.  The latter is what they need if they want to win next year.

[mileslunn]

NDP was leading in Fort McMurray-Conklin, but still early.  Also poll 20, Hillview Park, they've changed the numbers a few times, first UCP ahead in that poll, then NDP at 59 to 60, then UCP ahead again so not sure what is going on there.

[mileslunn]

Looks like the UCP will easily win Innisfail-Sylvan Lake.  With 10 of 86 polls reporting and UCP north of 80%, I think we can call this for the UCP.  Fort McMurray-Conklin still too early.  Turns out UCP candidate for Innisfail-Sylvan Lake campaigned for Trump, mind you this is probably a riding that will vote conservative regardless.

[mileslunn]

16% of polls in and UCP near 70%? Looks like Fort McMurray-Conklin will go UCP, as expected.

The first few looked promising for the NDP, but now it looks like an easy UCP win.  Innisfail-Sylvan Lake the UCP might top 80% and NDP could fall to third behind Alberta Party or get in single digits.  It does though look like the Alberta Party not Liberals will be the main party for centrist voters who dislike the two main parties.

[mileslunn]

Looking at Fort McMurray-Conklin numbers, I think it is safe to say the UCP will hold this as well.  Just waiting to see final numbers, but both suggest UCP will exceed combined vote while NDP does worse than 2015.  Mind you by-elections have low turnouts and the demographics most likely to show up tend to lean rightward.

 That being said it must be hard being a progressive in rural areas of the Prairies as it seems parties on the right run up the margins so progressives are very much a minority.  Sure BC interior and rural Ontario, usually vote conservative, but usually parties on the right only get around 50% of the vote so progressives there are not quite as rare a species even if they seldom win seats in those areas.  Mind you being a conservative in downtown Toronto or downtown Montreal are also vastly outnumbered.

[mileslunn]

Saint Boniface this Tuesday will probably be an easy NDP hold, but numbers should be interesting.  The polls I've seen shows the PCs have held their support in rural Manitoba, but dropped by double digits in Winnipeg so be interesting to see the numbers even though they have no chance here.  Liberals do well here federally so be interesting if they are able to benefit from unpopularity of provincial PCs and reluctance to return to the NDP who are still too fresh in many people's minds.

[mileslunn]

Saint Boniface this Tuesday will probably be an easy NDP hold, but numbers should be interesting.  The polls I've seen shows the PCs have held their support in rural Manitoba, but dropped by double digits in Winnipeg so be interesting to see the numbers even though they have no chance here.  Liberals do well here federally so be interesting if they are able to benefit from unpopularity of provincial PCs and reluctance to return to the NDP who are still too fresh in many people's minds.

The provincial PCs have rebounded in support. Brian Pallister seems to be turning out to be a very capable Premier.

True enough, although they got 53% which will be pretty tough to repeat, but they are up to 45% which is more than enough to win a solid majority although not Saint Boniface.

[mileslunn]

Looking ahead at the upcoming federal by-elections, here are my thoughts:

Burnaby South

I would give the NDP a slight edge, especially if Singh runs here and the Greens as promised don't run a candidate, but I also would not be the least bit surprised if the Liberals pick this up.  Tories have an outside chance, but they need perfect splits, otherwise Greens get around 10% and the Liberals and NDP split perfectly down the middle at around 30% each so unless they perfect splits doubt they will pick this up.

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Island & Rideau Lakes

This is a fairly safe Conservative riding so suspect the Tories will hold this.  Some benchmarks for them are under 50% is a bad night, 50-60% okay, while over 60% a good night.  For the Liberals anything over 30% is a good showing, 20-30% okay, while under 20% bad night.  For comparison it was 47% Tories in 2015 to 40% Liberals so somewhat competitive, but would be surprised if that close again.  Provincially on the other hand it was 62% PC while both Liberals and NDP got in the teens and I don't think it will be quite as big a blowout as this, otherwise this would be the best case scenario for the Tories and worst case for the Liberals.  NDP will likely be in the teens maybe even single digits as they've always been weak here even when they do well provincially.

Outremont

Liberals definitely favoured here, but I wouldn't totally rule out of the NDP since unlike the other Quebec by-elections to date, this is an area the NDP has historically done well in even pre 2011, still I would say the Liberals are the favourites.  For the NDP their main goal is to if not win it, at least make it close.  If they lose badly, this could suggests bigger trouble in Quebec.  Tories will be lucky if they can just get their deposit back (You have to get over 10% for this to happen).

St. Leonard-St. Michel

Liberal landslide, likely north of 60%.  NDP and Tories probably get their deposits back but likely languish in the teens.  Will be interesting to see who comes in second, albeit it will be a very distant second.

[mileslunn]

York-Simcoe federal: Peter Van Loan is leaving politics and resigning his seat Sept. 30.

Interesting, but a fairly safe Tory seat, so would be a huge shocker if they lose that one.  If they do lose it, I suspect Andrew Scheer's leadership of party would come under question, although I suspect the Tories will hold this, more interesting to see what the numbers are though.

[mileslunn]

Looking at the vacant seats right now, here are my thoughts on what I think will happen.

Burnaby South: I would give the NDP a slight edge, especially if Singh runs here as the Greens have promised not to put up a candidate.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Liberals picked this up.  A Tory pickup is possible but unlikely and need a strong perfect three way split for that to happen.  Nonetheless of the five open this is the only one beyond the two they already hold they have even a remote chance at.

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes: Anything other than a solid Tory win would be a huge shock here.

Outremont: I think the Liberals will likely pick this up, but it will be interesting to see whether NDP forms a strong second or implodes badly, good hint on the NDP prospects in Quebec.

St. Leonard-St. Michel: Very safe Liberal riding, Liberals in a landslide.

York-Simcoe: Also a very safe Tory riding, so anything other than a solid Tory win will be a huge shocker.

[mileslunn]

Looking at the vacant seats right now, here are my thoughts on what I think will happen.

Burnaby South: I would give the NDP a slight edge, especially if Singh runs here as the Greens have promised not to put up a candidate.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Liberals picked this up.  A Tory pickup is possible but unlikely and need a strong perfect three way split for that to happen.  Nonetheless of the five open this is the only one beyond the two they already hold they have even a remote chance at.

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes: Anything other than a solid Tory win would be a huge shock here.

Outremont: I think the Liberals will likely pick this up, but it will be interesting to see whether NDP forms a strong second or implodes badly, good hint on the NDP prospects in Quebec.

St. Leonard-St. Michel: Very safe Liberal riding, Liberals in a landslide.

York-Simcoe: Also a very safe Tory riding, so anything other than a solid Tory win will be a huge shocker.

With the Kinder Morgan pipeline being unpopular in Burnaby I would be shocked if the NDP lost Burnaby South.

Support for the pipeline is 20 points above opposition in BC. Granted it's obviously not that high in Burnaby South, but I am not sure it is widely opposed, just those who oppose it are the nosiest. You have a large immigrant community as well as many over 50 who care more about jobs and economy. It's more your ex hippies amongst the over 50 and native born millennials who are most opposed to it and latter tends to not show up in by-elections.

[mileslunn]

Michael Barrett (34 year old municipal Councillor) wins the Tory nomination in Leeds-Grenville-etc.


https://www.recorder.ca/news/local-news/barrett-wins-tory-nod

And likely next MP considering this is a very safe Tory riding.  Actually whomever wins the Liberal nomination in St. Leonard-St. Michel, Tory for York-Simcoe and Leeds-Grenville-Thousands Islands & Rideau Lakes is pretty much almost guaranteed to be MP.  Liberals likely to win Outremont but still an outside chance of an NDP hold.  Burnaby South will be the most competitive.

[mileslunn]

Regina Northeast by-election called for September 12.

While one needs to be careful not to read too much into by-elections this could be somewhat interesting to see if Scott Moe has helped regain some of the urban support Brad Wall lost in 2017.  This is one of the more favourable Saskatchewan Party ridings in Regina so if the NDP wins here, quite possible they sweep or win ever Regina seat except Regina-Wascana Plains.  On the other hand if the Saskatchewan Party holds this shows they are still competitive in urban Saskatchewan.  Rural Saskatchewan off course remains firmly in the hands of the Saskatchewan Party at the moment.

[mileslunn]

Burnaby South: Grits are thinking about not running a candidate to keep Singh alive for the general.

Interesting, but be careful for what you wish for.  I think Singh could also do better than expected too.  I actually think if he underperforms it will be less because of him and more fear of a Conservative win and many progressive voters voting strategically to stop the Tories. 

[mileslunn]

Antle has conceded, Ches Crosbie has won the seat by about 200 votes (one poll left) so he will be the next MHA.  Had he lost, his leadership might have come under fire so he avoided that.  Compared to the 2015 results, this was a tough one to win as it was 66% Liberal to 20% PC whereas now appears to be 42% PC to 38% Liberal and 20% NDP so looks like the NDP has bounced back a bit.  Not sure what 2011 results were as this was a new riding, so does anyone have the transposed votes as it included both PC and NDP ridings but eyeballing the numbers looks like would have narrowly gone PC.

[mileslunn]

Couillard has disclaimed his seat, so Roberval by-election next year.

Wonder how that will go.

Would be shocked if PLQ holds this considering how poorly they did in adjacent ridings. Too rural for QS to be a factor, PQ did manage to stay competitive here unlike other regions, but I suspect with their poor showing they are now on life support. CAQ made inroads in this area so if I had to make a guess that would be mine.

[mileslunn]

BC NDP Sheila Malcolmson leaving Federal Politics to run for the BC NDPs


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/malcolmson-ndp-nanaimo-bc-1.4875932

That is a traditional NDP riding so suspect the NDP will probably hold it although the Greens did surprisingly well so if it flips Greens most likely.  Tories have a remote chance, but they need to get back above 30% and have very strong splits.  Last time they won this riding was 2000, but that was when NDP had rock bottom support while Reform Party unlike present Tories did seem for whatever reason in BC to pull a significant number of traditional NDP voters.  It seems that group in the Interior has mostly started voting for parties on the right across the board, but on the Island mostly returned to traditional voting patterns.

In BC, due to Leonard Krog's win there is the Nanaimo by-election.  If the BC Liberals were to win it would be 43-43 thus the speaker breaking the tie so the government wouldn't necessarily fall, but would be a lot more vulnerable.  Due to Nanaimo's history, I would say NDP has strong edge, but lets remember unlike the 2005 boundaries, the 2009 boundaries are less solidly NDP.  Southern side of Nanaimo is working class and very NDP, but part of that got lopped off to Nanaimo-North Cowichan, while north side is more upper middle class so somewhat friendly to BC Liberals and redistribution did pick up part of Nanaimo-Parksville.  Still overall has more NDP strongholds and only the northern 1/3 perhaps is somewhat favourable to BC Liberals.  On the one hand usually by-elections favour the opposition so good news for the BC Liberals, but usually by-elections are a way to send a message to the government of the day without changing government.  Due to the current legislature make up, this will not be a no impact scenario thus why I think you will see higher turnout and fewer protest votes.  If NDP had a solid majority, then I think a BC Liberal pick up would be likely as one could vote for them as way to send a message without changing government, but because a BC Liberal win could trigger another election, that means people will vote more on what they favour, not use the by-election to do a protest vote.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1052966831244410881

I suspect it will probably stay PC, but you never know.  Would be a huge blow to the PCs and boon to the Liberals if this flips, but suspect it will stay PC.

[mileslunn]

Leeds-Grenville by-election called for December 3.

This is a very safe Tory riding, so anything other than a Tory win here would be a shock.  I would say this for the parties running in terms of how to measure support

Tories:

Over 60% is a good night as last provincial election and federally in 2011 they cracked the 60% mark.  Under 50% is a bad showing as the only time at either level this has happened in recent memory is in 2015.

Liberals:

They got 40% in 2015, but considering the history of the riding would be surprised if they repeat this.  I would say anything over 30% is a good night for the Grits as when they get over 30% here they usually form government.  In the 20s not so great, while under 20% is a bad night.

NDP:

NDP has never been particularly strong here, even in 2011 federally and 2018 provincially they performed rather poorly.  I would say over 20% is a good night for them while under 10% is a bad one.  Teens is probably their average showing.

[mileslunn]

Hebert says odds are Grits will compete in Burnaby, but Trudeau might wait till next year for Outremont to allow Bernier's party a shot.

Considering the Tories usually get in single digits here and the CAQ only got in the low teens, I don't think vote splitting really matters a lot here.  I suspect both the Tories and People's party will bomb this one badly as they usually do.  I think if it was in the regions of Quebec, then it might be more interesting, mind you Bernier's stance on supply management will probably make him pretty unpopular in rural Quebec considering how important dairy farming is to the rural economy.  The only areas in Quebec he might have support are areas with few dairy farms such as urban areas, areas too harsh in climate for farming such as Gaspésie, Cote Nord, Saguenay, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, and Nord.  And asides from Quebec City, Tories generally don't tend to fare too well in most of those areas.

[mileslunn]

Hebert says odds are Grits will compete in Burnaby, but Trudeau might wait till next year for Outremont to allow Bernier's party a shot.

Considering the Tories usually get in single digits here and the CAQ only got in the low teens, I don't think vote splitting really matters a lot here.  I suspect both the Tories and People's party will bomb this one badly as they usually do.  I think if it was in the regions of Quebec, then it might be more interesting, mind you Bernier's stance on supply management will probably make him pretty unpopular in rural Quebec considering how important dairy farming is to the rural economy.  The only areas in Quebec he might have support are areas with few dairy farms such as urban areas, areas too harsh in climate for farming such as Gaspésie, Cote Nord, Saguenay, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, and Nord.  And asides from Quebec City, Tories generally don't tend to fare too well in most of those areas.

Saguenay and the Abitibi-Témiscamingue riding are full of farms.

Point taken although their population densities seem quite low for heavy agricultural areas, mind you I think they are largely limited to the river valleys, the rest being forests.  Off course that is where most live. 

[mileslunn]

Tories:

Over 60% is a good night as last provincial election and federally in 2011 they cracked the 60% mark.  Under 50% is a bad showing as the only time at either level this has happened in recent memory is in 2015.

It depends on how far back you define "recent memory", of course, w/Ontario being a Liberal monolith pre-2004.

And as demonstration of how even outside of the Chretien era, L-G hasn't been immune to backlash against blue under certain conditions, it went Liberal already in 1988--the archetypal left-field "Free Trade Election" pickup.  (Not that anything like that is poised to happen now, of course.)

I am thinking of this century.  In 2000, the Canadian Alliance came within around 55 votes and this was almost their third seat.  Certainly in the past decade, its pretty much always been in the top 10 best Tory showings in Ontario, so unless they fall to single seats which I see as highly unlikely, you would expect them to do well here.

[mileslunn]

Quitto Maggi doesn't have a great track record.

On provincial and federal results overall, Mainstreet is pretty good, but on municipal and riding less so.  For example in BC, the overall horserace numbers were right, but individual riding polls were way off.  For Quebec and Ontario, though the final seat projection was actually pretty close although the one big miss in Ontario was Parry Sound-Muskoka, which he predicted would go NDP and wasn't even close.

[mileslunn]

This will be interesting as Jagmeet Singh's former riding is now open.  Will he run there or stay with Burnaby South.  I think due to his ties to the community, Brampton East would be a better bet.